Cardano Price Resistance Hints 12% Drop as Network Upgrade Nears

As a seasoned researcher who has navigated through numerous market cycles, I find myself cautiously optimistic about Cardano’s upcoming Chang hard fork upgrade. On one hand, the excitement within the community is undeniable, and the potential of Chang and Hydra to drive scalability and efficiency on the Cardano blockchain is indeed compelling. However, my technical analysis paints a different picture.


Over the last few weeks, the value of Cardano has been decreasing due to a bearish market. However, the community continues to stay positive regarding the approaching Chang hard fork update, generating excitement for potential increases in the ADA price.

Yet, Cardano’s technical outlook paints a contrasting picture, revealing a potential bearish reversal in its trend. Given the prevailing bearish climate across the market, Chang’s update might not significantly boost ADA‘s value.

Chang Upgrade Is Only 3% Away

The anticipated Chang hard fork update is closer now than it was yesterday. By August 7, 58% of nodes had already switched to the new v9.1.0 version, preparing for this update. For the upgrade to take place, at least 70% of nodes must make the switch.

At this moment, we’ve seen an increase of 9% more nodes moving to version 9.1.0, making it a total of 67%. Just 3% remains before the scheduled hard fork can take place.

UPDATE: #Cardano Node Version 9.1.0 = 67% #ChangHardFork
— Cardano Feed ($ADA) (@CardanoFeed) August 8, 2024

The excitement in the Cardano community is palpable as talks of Chang and another layer 2 scaling solution, Hydra, saturate the crypto X space. 

In the previous 24 hours, the value of Cardano decreased by 1%, now hovering near $0.333. The buzz surrounding Cardano’s price has grown as nodes transitioned to v9.1.0, but real-world data tells a contrasting tale.

Cardano Price Wants to Shed Some Weight

As an analyst, I’ve been observing the ADA/USDT price chart, and it appears to be following a descending pattern. Notably, the trading price is persistently lower than both the 50-day EMA ($0.3519) and 200-day EMA ($0.389), suggesting robust bearish pressure. Recently, the price has breached a substantial support area, which has now reversed to act as resistance. This trend points towards a potentially challenging time ahead for bulls in the ADA market.

As a crypto investor, I’ve been closely monitoring the price movement of ADA, and here’s what I’ve observed: The immediate resistance levels for ADA are currently at $0.3519 (represented by the 50-day EMA) and $0.389 (the 200-day EMA). Additionally, there seems to be a horizontal resistance zone around the $0.335-$0.35 price range, where the ADA price has found it challenging to sustain its level. Keep an eye on these levels as they could significantly impact our investment strategy.

From another perspective, the potential next strong support for Cardano’s price movement could be roughly at $0.3. This level is psychologically significant and has been previously tested in past price fluctuations. If the downtrend persists, additional support might be found around $0.2500.

More recently, the candlestick patterns indicate a negative outlook as they have failed to push through the resistance area, hinting at a bearish trend. The extended lower shadows on the candles signify that sellers are currently in control, preventing prices from maintaining elevated positions.

In simpler terms, the technical signs point towards a temporary pessimistic trend, as suggested by the Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently reading 50.67, which implies a leaning towards bearishness rather than bullishness in the immediate future.

As an analyst, I’m observing that the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) currently stands at 0.09, suggesting a mild inflow of money, yet it’s not robust enough to significantly challenge the current bearish sentiment in the market.

Cardano Price Resistance Hints 12% Drop as Network Upgrade Nears

After a surge in trading due to the price decline, the trading volume has been progressively decreasing as the price recovers, according to data from CoinGecko. This downward trend in volume despite the recovering price suggests a bearish divergence, increasing the likelihood of further price drops.

If the value of Cardano exceeds $0.33 and remains there or higher, this could indicate a robust market and challenge the negative outlook. The price of ADA might then increase towards $0.35, $0.38, and potentially even reach $0.45.

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2024-08-08 08:44