As a seasoned researcher with over two decades of experience navigating financial markets, I have witnessed my fair share of economic cycles and market fluctuations. The recent Bitcoin price recovery, while promising, has left me cautiously optimistic.
The surge in the crypto market lately occurs at a time when there’s increasing anxiety about an impending recession in the U.S., and Bitcoin‘s price struggles, as suggested by a string of worrying economic signals. Last week’s disheartening manufacturing PMI figures, along with a sluggish jobs report on Friday, September 6, have left investors feeling uneasy. Although the cryptocurrency market appears to be rebounding following a significant downturn, this rally could prove temporary.
As a researcher delving into the cryptocurrency sphere, I’ve taken note of Arthur Hayes’ recent decision to close his short position on Bitcoin and his forecast for market recovery. However, I can’t ignore the potential macroeconomic hurdles and technical indicators that seem to suggest further drops in the crypto market. The warning from experts is clear: this current surge could be a ‘bull trap’, luring investors with false hope of optimism, only for the downtrend to persist.
Bitcoin Price Recovery: US Yield Curve ‘Uninversed,’ Triggers Fears of Recession
In simpler terms, the graph showing how U.S. Treasury bond interest rates change with their maturity periods, known as the US Yield Curve, has flipped from a negative slope to a positive one, following almost two years of being inverted.
This turning officially marks history’s longest inverted yield curve. The next longest occurred in 1929, right before the Stock Market Crash of 1929.
According to findings from Game of Trades, when the yield curve stays inverted for a prolonged period, it tends to lead to more significant market declines. This phenomenon, in turn, affects the rate at which cryptocurrencies recover.
This situation could have significant impacts on Bitcoin as well as the worldwide economy at large. According to The Block, during the past month, Bitcoin has shown a positive correlation with the Nasdaq Composite and the S&P 500, but a negative one with Gold.
If the stock market experiences a crash soon after the yield curve inversion, this might suggest potential problems for Bitcoin and indicate the beginning of an extended downturn across the cryptocurrency market, hindering the current recovery progress.
BTC Imbalance Could Crash Crypto Markets
By examining the Bitcoin price graph, it’s clear that there are several areas of market imbalance as low as $27,000. This indicates a potential risk for BTC to decrease by approximately 45%, dropping below the $30,000 mark to balance out the discrepancies in value at these price points.
On August 5, the Bitcoin price almost reached the estimated fair market value at around $45,000 due to the crash, but the reentry of significant investors, often referred to as “whales,” caused the price to rise again.
Generally speaking, hitting record-breaking heights in a market is challenging given the large discrepancies that persist. If such a peak is achieved, these disparities might function like magnets, drawing the price back down and potentially jeopardizing the cryptocurrency’s rebound.
Based on present Bitcoin price forecasts, combined with technical signals and blockchain statistics, our experts believe it’s highly probable that the latest decline in BTC prices has concluded. Yet, it might be advisable for investors to seek further verification on shorter time periods before taking action.
Bulls Remains Cautious Even in Short-Term Forecast
Following the release of the unemployment and jobs data, the market’s focus has shifted towards the inflation rate report due within the next ten days. As per the CME FedWatch Tool, it is almost certain, with a 100% probability, that an interest rate cut will occur on September 18.
Instead, it’s more likely that experts anticipate a smaller adjustment (around 0.25 percentage points) from the existing range of 5.25%-5.5%, bringing it down to 5%-5.25%. A larger reduction by 0.50 percentage points is less probable.
From my perspective as an analyst, while this action might appear advantageous at first glance, it actually fuels the lengthening of interest rates spread (yield curve), thereby amplifying apprehensions about a looming recession. This could potentially halt the ongoing recovery within the crypto market. However, despite any temporary enthusiasm, bullish investors remain vigilant, keeping a close eye on broader economic indicators that might precipitate another market decline.
According to information from CryptoQuant, there has been a gradual accumulation of leveraged positions within the futures market over a period of six months. Typically, this situation tends to lead to increased market turbulence, moving towards the direction with the greatest liquidity.
Since March, there have been three instances where the Bitcoin price has dropped below its support level (demand zone), but none have reached the resistance level (supply zone). This suggests that the price could potentially rise in the approaching weeks as market makers aim to secure buy-side liquidity before the FOMC meeting.
Conclusion
Although the current increase in Bitcoin prices has brought about hope, it’s important for investors to stay vigilant given the broader economic conditions. The historic clearing of an inverted yield curve in the U.S. and ongoing concerns about a recession could potentially weaken this surge, possibly leading to additional market adjustments.
As an analyst, I’m closely monitoring the Bitcoin market, and it seems that the BTC price could potentially dip to around $27,000 due to market imbalances and the upcoming Fed rate cut decision. This situation may present a ‘bull trap,’ where the price falls but fails to sustain a significant recovery, opening up opportunities for altcoins to rally instead.
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2024-09-09 12:50