As a seasoned researcher with a keen eye for market trends and a heart full of curiosity, I find the recent analysis by Markus Thielen at 10x Research quite intriguing. The potential rally in Q4 2024, fueled by increasing stablecoin minting, rising altcoin activity on Ethereum, and the decline in Bitcoin dominance, is a fascinating blend of traditional finance and the crypto realm.
According to Markus Thielen, head of research at 10x Research, if Bitcoin (BTC) surges beyond $65,000, it could significantly increase the likelihood of a broader cryptocurrency market rally in Q4 2024, implying a potentially very favorable scenario.
Sustained Bitcoin Rally Could Spark FOMO In Altcoins
As per a recently published analysis, Thielen identified various elements potentially leading to a cryptocurrency surge during the final three months of 2024. The report indicates that an increase in the crypto market might be imminent, primarily based on two crucial aspects.
Initially, the increase in stablecoin production suggests a growing appetite among investors and traders for returning to the cryptocurrency market, indicating their heightened interest.
Following the FOMC meeting on July 31st, I observed a significant surge in the issuance of stablecoins, amounting to approximately $10 billion. This influx not only enhanced market liquidity but also overshadowed the inflows of Bitcoin ETFs.
The report states:
As an analyst, I’ve noticed that Circle, often preferred by more regulated institutions, has been responsible for a staggering 40% of recent stablecoin inflows. This suggests a significant increase in allocation from larger market players who are choosing Circle over other options. Unlike the USDT minting on Tron, which is typically associated with capital preservation, the increase in USDC minting could be indicative of a growing trend towards DeFi activity. So far this year, stablecoin inflows have surged to $35 billion, pushing the total value of outstanding stablecoins up to a whopping $160 billion.
According to Thielen, Bitcoin has just surpassed $65,000 and he predicts it might quickly head towards the significant $70,000 mark. He also suggests that it could potentially reach a new record high value after that.
“A decrease in Bitcoin’s dominance index (BTC.D) following the September FOMC meeting is an indicator of a possible altcoin surge this year. This drop in BTC.D aligns with increasing Ethereum (ETH) gas fees for network transactions, which might stem from heightened activity on the smart contract blockchain as a result of increased altcoin usage.
The graph demonstrates a significant increase in Ethereum transaction costs (gas fees). They soared from approximately $1.89 million on August 13, and have been persistently staying above $7 million since September 22.
The report suggests that if the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) persists in lowering interest rates, high-risk altcoins might grow more appealing for cryptocurrency investors.
Encouraging Cryptocurrency Trends In South Korea, China
The report highlights South Korea’s crypto trading activity as a factor strengthening the altcoin trend. Daily trading volume in the country now floats around $2 billion, with altcoins dominating trading activities ahead of BTC.
Remarkably, Shiba Inu (SHIB) has regained the top spot in trading volume within South Korea, suggesting increased interest and potentially setting the stage for an altcoin-led market in the fourth quarter.
To summarize, Thielen points out that Chinese OTC brokers have consistently reported inflows amounting to approximately $20 billion per quarter for the past six quarters, accumulating a grand total of $120 billion.
According to recent reports, the People’s Bank of China has lowered its Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR) by 0.5%, aiming to increase the money supply within the market. This move could potentially spark an extraordinary surge in cryptocurrency values throughout the remainder of the year.
The report predicts that Bitcoin may reach $70,000 over the next fortnight, potentially setting a new all-time high by October’s end. Currently, Bitcoin is trading at $66,298, marking a 1.4% increase in the past day.
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2024-09-28 11:12