What’s Behind Crypto Market’s Red Zone? Is Uptober Just a Crypto Myth?

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As a seasoned crypto investor with a decade of experience under my belt, I must admit that the current market scenario is causing a bit of a headache. The Israel-Iran conflict has once again proved to be a wild card in the global finance market, and it’s not just affecting Bitcoin and altcoins, but also the overall sentiment among traders.

October, often referred to as Uptober, is a highly anticipated occasion within the cryptocurrency sector, where participants eagerly watch for the largest crypto market surge prior to the 2025 Bull Run. Given the market’s bullish trend in September, anticipation for October has grown significantly. Nevertheless, over the past three days, the market has experienced a downturn instead of an uptick, causing worry among many observers. In this context, the price of Bitcoin has dropped to around $60K, and the same pattern is seen with altcoins. Consequently, the entire market now displays red, signifying substantial losses.

Why Is Crypto Market In Red Zone Today?

The tension between Israel and Iran in the Middle East is escalating, which has negatively impacted the price of Bitcoin. This decrease in Bitcoin value is due to increased selling because of this geopolitical conflict. A recent attack by Israel on Iran on October 1 has sparked worries about a potential war, leading to a dip in the cryptocurrency market. Since financial industries are closely tied to political events, such conflicts can have significant effects on the crypto market.

What’s Behind Crypto Market’s Red Zone? Is Uptober Just a Crypto Myth?

Following this event, Bitcoin experienced a significant decrease, which affected the broader market as well. Currently, Ethereum‘s price stands at $2,361, Solana has dropped to $137, and so on for other cryptocurrencies. At the moment of writing, all cryptos have suffered substantial losses, causing the total market capitalization to decline to approximately $2.09 Trillion after a 3.77% fall. Notably, the Fear and Greed market index shows that user sentiments have dropped to ‘fear’, suggesting uncertainty among traders regarding making trades.

It’s intriguing to note that a cryptocurrency trader has amassed a profit of $2 Million, bucking the trend of the market’s decline. Yet, such success isn’t commonplace among traders, as evidenced by the 18% decrease in trading volume, which was initially at $94 Billion.

Is Uptober Just A Crypto Myth?

The persistent negative news about the turbulent cryptocurrency market is causing concern among investors. This is due to the fact that the market is currently experiencing a downward trend, contrary to the upward trend that was previously expected. As a result, some are questioning whether the phenomenon known as Uptober is merely a crypto legend.

The significant increase in Bitcoin’s price on a monthly basis during October is often referred to as “Crypto Uptober.” Over the past 13 years, the crypto market has shown an upward trend in October about 11 times. Given this historical pattern and additional factors such as the passage of the Bitcoin Halving, numerous crypto experts and industry influencers have predicted an uptrend rally for October.

Despite the current market slump, some have expressed doubts about its future prospects. One cryptocurrency analyst posits that the medium-term outlook remains bearish, with tentative moves towards neutral and potential bullishness. As such, he predicts that reaching All-Time High (ATH) will take some time, yet there is a strong likelihood of a bullish trend in the long run.

Structure mid term is bearish moving to neutral and trying to get bullish. ATH will take time.

Short term structure suggests 1-3 wks stand down to cool off before the next bullish attempt.

I don’t think we get Uptober, sideways Oct, and Nov-Dec for laser eye parties.

Long term…

— Willy Woo (@woonomic) October 2, 2024

The cryptocurrency market is constantly evolving, so relying on the same strategies to work each time isn’t ideal. Historically, “Uptober” hasn’t always started at the beginning of the month; it usually kicks off around mid-October. Given that we haven’t reached mid-October yet, there’s still a possibility for this trend to continue, explaining why an “Up-October” could occur.

According to crypto expert Whale Moca, the much-anticipated market surge known as “Uptober” could start on October 11th, based on data from 2020 and 2017. Additionally, October 15th is another significant date, as it has previously seen such surges in 2023 and 2021. This suggests that the “Uptober” event may occur again this year, but only if the current selling pressure caused by the Israel-Iran conflict subsides.

You’ve probably seen this screenshot a lot.

“Uptober”.

But what you haven’t been shown:

Uptober never really started on October 1st.

Here’s when the parabolic moves that drove the returns you see in the image actually started:

2023: October 15th.

2021: October 5th.

2020:…

— wale.moca (@waleswoosh) October 1, 2024

Final Thoughts

Following negative crypto market news that suggested a downward trend, investor fear set in and raised questions about Uptober’s reliability. However, past data shows an actual uptrend starting mid-month, not the beginning. Moreover, the current downtrend is primarily due to escalating Israel-Iran tensions, which could potentially cause a significant market crash across finance if it continues. Conversely, if tensions ease, there’s a chance October may experience a bullish period instead.

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2024-10-03 15:02