Analytics for BNB, BTC, ATOM, WAVES, LUNC

Binance Coin [BNB] was ranked 7th on CoinMarketCap and was the largest exchange token by market capitalization. It witnessed enormous gains since early 2021. The bear market of the past year saw the coin fall from $650 in November 2021 to $200 in late June.

Binance has also been going strong, and most analysts expect this trend to continue. Years into the future, BNB could be one of the giants of the ecosystem. Yet, in the next month, the picture was not quite as rosy.

Source: BNB/USDT on TradingView

The support and resistance zones were marked in cyan and red respectively. In mid-May and early August, the $336 mark decisively rebuffed bullish efforts. Moreover, the $300 level was a psychologically important one. Hence, the region around it could be a massive battlefield on the order books as bulls and bears fight for control.

At press time, the bears held this territory. Earlier this month, an attempt to scale the $300 heights was pushed back, and a retest of the $260 zone was effected. The market structure was also bearish for Binance Coin since August, when the $300 mark was flipped to resistance.

This bias would remain in the weeks to come. Sell when BNB reached $300, and look for buying opportunities around $260.

Source: BNB/USDT on TradingView

The higher timeframe market structure was bearish for Binance Coin. This meant that, on the 12-hour chart, a trader can look for shorting opportunities. A bearish order block formed near the $300 mark, once again highlighted in red.

The confluence of a key level alongside a H12 order block suggested that high probability short positions could present themselves in the days to come. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) was at 55, which was weakly bullish. This was in response to the bounce from $260.

The Awesome Oscillator (AO) was not yet above the zero mark, and showed slight bearish momentum. The Accumulation/Distribution (A/D) line trended upward since June but was flat in the past two weeks.

The price action strongly hinted at a shorting opportunity at the $300 mark. A move past this level would flip the long-term structure to bullish. Yet, with Bitcoin below the $19.6k resistance, caution was warranted over the next week.

A move above $20k could help Binance Coin break its resistance as well. Such a scenario would invalidate the bearish ideas presented in this article. Until then, downside targets would be $260 and $240 after a retest of the $300 region.

Cosmos’ funding rate was strongly negative, according to the 1-Day Funding Rate data on Coinglass. This meant that short positions paid the long positions periodically, and showed speculators were bearishly positioned over the previous day.

Indeed, a fall from $14.6 to $13.5 was seen, before a bounce to $14. A closer inspection of the price charts showed a bearish move over the past week.

ATOM- 12-Hour Chart

Source: ATOM/USDT on TradingView

ATOM took a 20% hit from the $16.5 mark to reach a crucial zone of support at $13 over the past week. Highlighted in cyan, this zone of liquidity has been important since mid-August. It acted as resistance up to early September and was decisively broken.

The trading volume has also been sizeable in September. Over the next few days, a retest of the support zone could offer a buying opportunity. Yet, it must be remembered that Bitcoin has a bearish bias until the $19.6k mark can be broken.

The fact that the $13.87 low from mid-September was broken meant the market has a bearish bias on the higher timeframe. A daily session close below $12.85-$13 would suggest another plunge toward the $11.67 mark.

The Fibonacci retracement levels (yellow) showed the 61.8% level to lie at $12.85. This level had confluence with the support zone, further reinforcing its significance.

Source: ATOM/USDT on TradingView

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) slipped below neutral 50 and hinted at a flip in momentum toward bearish. In contrast, the On-Balance Volume (OBV) was on an uptrend to show strong buying volume in recent weeks. The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) also fell toward the neutral zone.

The inference from the indicators was a mixed bunch, with bearish momentum but without heavy selling volume.

The fall to the support zone at $13 meant traders and investors might have a buying opportunity on their hands. A daily session close below $12.85 would indicate ATOM was headed toward the $11.6 mark. A successful defense of the $13 region over the next week could start ATOM on a move back toward the $16.6 highs. Patience and low-risk positions could be the way to navigate the Cosmos charts.

Data from blockchain analytics platform, Santiment revealed that Bitcoin [BTC]‘s Market-Value-to-Realized-Value (MVRV) stood at -43. This was close to the lowest position the metric has clinched before a rebound. Historically, the king coin’s lowest was a negative value of -53 in December 2018.

According to Santiment, in 2021, a consistent decline in the price and market capitalization led to a similar drop in active traders that traded BTC. As a result, the index for active BTC traders dropped by an average of 43% since last September. 

At press time, BTC traded at $19,137.16. According to data from CoinMarketCap, the price position represented a 72% drop from its all-time high of $68,789.63 logged 10 months ago.

However in 2021, the Bitcoin network hash rate grew steadily. According to data from Messari, this stood at 225 MH/s at press time, having increased by over 60% in the last 365 days. Additionally, data from the same source showed that the average difficulty on the network was at an all-time high of 32.05T. 

However, despite these highs, the revenue paid to BTC miners per hash per second on the network declined severely in the last year. According to Messari, the figure dropped by 75%.

Source: Messari

Within the one-year period under review, the king coin registered a disparity in coin holding behavior amongst the biggest stakeholders on the BTC network. According to data from Santiment, holders of 1,000 to 10,000 BTC dropped by 2% in the last year.

The current count for this category of whales stood at 2,025 addresses. This decline can thus be attributed to the steady decline in the price of BTC since its November 2021 ATH. However, holders of 10,000 to 100,000 BTC and 100,000 to 1,000,000 BTC have been more resilient.

Their counts increased by 15% and 66%, respectively, in the last 365 days.

Source: Santiment

Further, data from Santiment also revealed dormancy on the BTC network since the ATH of 10 November. A look at the asset’s Mean Dollar Invested Age (MDIA) confirmed this. It has consistently risen in the past year, indicating stagnancy on the network. This further resulted in a gradual decline in the price of the king coin.

Source: Santiment

Through the thick of the current bear market, the price of BTC has gone down by over 55% since January. With the tightening financial situation amid a general downturn in the broader financial markets, BTC holders have taken to selling their assets at a loss to salvage their investments. 

As a result, the asset’s Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) spent more than half of the year below the central 1  level, data from Glassnode showed. This was an indication that the year so far has been significantly marked by panic selling of BTC.

Source: Glassnode

Bitcoin [BTC] faced stiff resistance near the $19.6k mark and registered some losses over the previous trading day. Terra Classic [LUNC] also faced significant losses in the past few days.

At the time of writing, a former level of support was flipped to resistance. It seemed likely that LUNC would see another leg down on the price charts in the next day or two.

LUNC- 1-Hour Chart

Source: LUNC/BUSD on TradingView

The short-term price chart showed a strong bearish trend in progress. The price shed 22% in the span of five days. The $0.000267 level acted as strong resistance for nearly ten days now.

But repeated retests of the same support level saw the buyers steadily lose strength. Eventually, sellers got overwhelmed with the buying pressure and forced a sharp move south as far as $0.000219.

Although this move did not see the hourly session close at those lows, the high trading volume on that session meant buyers were once more on the back foot.

At the time of writing, the price had already retested the $0.000267 level as resistance and was headed toward $0.000238.

Source: LUNC/BUSD on TradingView

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has been below the neutral 50 level over the past few days to show the presence of a strong bearish trend. Each attempt to climb past the neutral 50 mark was quickly put to the sword. The short-term momentum for LUNC would need to flip neutral 50 to support before momentum can be considered to favor the bulls.

The Directional Movement Index (DMI) also showed a strong bearish trend. The Average Directional Movement Index (ADX) (yellow) was above 20, as was the -DI (red). The Stochastic RSI, on the other hand, fell into the oversold zone. It could form a bullish crossover and climb back toward 80, but it will not signal a short-term trend reversal.

The bearish market structure and the strong fall beneath the $0.000267 former support was evidence that the buyers were out of ammunition. The price could see further losses in the coming days, with support lying at $0.000238 and $0.000219.

Bitcoin rose to $19.5k, and the bearish order block it registered on lower timeframes has spurned the advances of the bulls. Downside targets include $17.8k.

If Bitcoin fell beneath $19k, it could also drag the rest of the crypto market along with it. Coinglass data showed nearly $120 million worth of liquidations for Bitcoin over the past 24 hours alone. Despite BTC’s weak bounce, Waves had some success moving above the $4 mark over the past two days.

WAVES- 4-Hour Chart

Source: WAVES/USDT on TradingView

The H4 chart showed that the price saw a strong move downward a week into September. The market structure flipped decisively bearish after WAVES was unable to hold on to $4.8 and blew right past $4.68 as well.

In the days that followed, the price bounced between the $4.2 and $4.37 levels without much intent. A few days ago, the $4.2 support failed and was retested as resistance.

In recent hours, Waves fell below the $4 level once again. A trendline support (white) was spotted but it might not be particularly strong since it has only two touches by the price on the chart.

WAVES- 1-Hour Chart

Source: WAVES/USDT on TradingView

For context, the higher timeframes (above H4) leaned more in favor of the bears than the bulls. The momentum has favored the sellers in the past two weeks, and the bounce from $3.7 was not particularly strong. Even the attempt to climb to $4.2 a couple of days ago was firmly rebuffed, and a push south to $3.8 immediately followed.

Therefore, any long positions in the $3.95 support zone would likely be quite risky. In the wake of WAVES unable to defend $4, it lent further credence to the bears having the upper hand in the short term. Hence, a selling opportunity could arise on a retest of the $4 zone (cyan).

The Fibonacci retracement levels (yellow) showed $4.02 and $4.08 could oppose buyers’ attempts to force prices higher. The RSI moved below neutral 50 to highlight bearish momentum. The CMF also slipped beneath -0.05 to show a significant amount of capital leaving the WAVES market.

The OBV did not see a sharp pullback yet and noted a lack of strong selling volume in the past week.

The price fell below $4, which was a significantly lower timeframe development. It momentarily halted at $3.92. A retest of the $4.022 mark would likely offer a selling opportunity. Invalidation of this bearish idea would be a move back above $4.08-$4.1. To the south, short sellers can look to book a profit at $3.83 and $3.76.

2022-09-25 06:36