FX Market Review

The prospects of the dollar deteriorate, and Yena reaps the fruits

The correlation between the dollar and the shares in the United States decreased. If, due to the upcoming recession, the shares are cheaper, the dollar will not be able to extract a full benefit from this.

The schedule displays the dynamics of the S&P 500 index and the dollar index.

The warning about the upcoming recession in the United States leads to the fact that the FRS forecasts are reviewed towards reducing the rate later this year. This cycle has at least one more increase that will support the dollar for a while. But this support will disappear if in the second half of the year the increase will turn into a reduction. With the Fed, now he observes the period of silence before the decision on the rates on February 1 and none of the official representatives of the Federal Reserve did not give signals of preserving the restrictive policy. At the same time, the prospects for reducing the rate at the end of the year are quoted in the swap market confidently and stably.

Another danger is that the dollar index and the S&P 500 index are not synchronized as before. They move opposite to each other with a 30-day correlation of about 56%. At the same time, in October, the reverse correlation was 80%. The shift suggests that the dollar will lose part of the support from its status of a safe asset if the shares market resumes an active decline, which is quite possible, given all the warnings about the recession that we observe.

Yena will most likely win if the reverse relationship of the dollar and shares decreases. Growth in inflation in Tokyo (this is an advanced inflation indicator for a common -stage consumer price index in the whole in Japan) is the last sign that the Bank of Japan is time to allow the profitables of government bonds without limiting them, as now, by a limit of 0.5%. This work will probably be left to the next chapter of Japan Bank after the current head of Kharuhiko Kurod completes his authority in April. Recently, the IMF recommended the Japanese Central Bank to increase the flexibility of its long -term profitability as inflationary risks grow. Higher bets in Japan mean the growth of yen.

Author: UES Goodman, expert and columnist Bloomberg.

The March decision of the Fed on rates is more important than the February

It is in March that it can become clear who is right and who is mistaken – the market or the Fed. If the US Central Bank is right, the dollar will strengthen.

In the photo: Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, Samuel Corum/Getty Images

While all the attention of the markets is riveted to the results of the meeting of the Open Market Committee (FOMC) next week (February 1), the March meeting should be much more important for traders, since it can fail the final line between the disagreements between the markets and the Fedrelation to the prospects of interest rates in the United States. There is a risk of increasing the short -term profitability of treasury bonds.

The Fed’s decision next week is evaluated by markets, as a pigeon, since several Federal -Russian officials have already indicated that the central bank would increase rates on 25 basic points, which is 100% taken into account by quotes of the Swap market. But the March results can have a much greater influence, given the discrepancy in the views of the market and the Fed on the level of the terminal rate. Although investors remain persistent in their positions, assuming that the Fed does not raise the rate above 5%, the US Central Bank still signals that the rate can rise above 5%. The markets are waiting for a decrease in the rate by the end of the year, but the Federal Reserve insists that the bets on the reached peak value will be held throughout the current year.

At the March meeting, the updated own forecasts of the officials of the Federal Reserve (DOT PLOT) will be published. If we assume that next week and in March the Fed will increase rates by 25 basic points, the rate of rates on federal funds will be 4.75–5.0%(now 4.25%-4.5%). Then investors will really need to take the position of the Fed, if the point schedule will still indicate that the final rate will be higher than 5%.

In this case, market participants will be forced to increase their expectations at interest rates, especially if the point schedule still does not show a decrease in bets this year, which will support the yield of 2-year-old tenderris and quickly return them to 4.50% (now 4.21%). Such a scenario involves strengthening the dollar.

Traiders are preparing for the next volatile week for pounds sterling

Three large world central banks in early February will declare their decisions on bets.

Pound/dollar schedule in intervals in 1 day

The market of foreign exchange options expects to increase the volatility of the British pound next week, as traders are preparing to decide the Bank of England at the interest rate. Also next week, the Federals and ECB will be voiced at the rates at the rates.

The weekly imputed volatility in a pound/dollar paired has jumped over the past few days, but market participants have been waiting for a less volatile year for the currency as a whole.

Bloomberg currency prognosis model, built on the basis of options for options, shows 72.2% the probability that the GBPUSD pair will be traded between 1.2150–1,2580 next week. Now the pound rate to the dollar is traded at about 1.2375.

The Monetary Policy Committee is expected to raise a rate of 50 basic points next week following the results of the first meeting this year. Bloomberg Economics believes that this step will bring the bank of England closer to the maximum rate in the current increase in cycle, although the Central Bank will probably refrain from clear signals.

Cash markets also change their expectations. For the first time from August, at the beginning of this week, quotes of swaps showed with a 100% probability a decrease in a quarter of the point by the end of the year. It is expected that next month the bets will still increase before in the summer they reach a maximum at a mark of 4.4%.

This is reflected in the pricing of foreign exchange options. The weekly indicator RISK Reversal (the difference in price prices Call and PUT) for a pound/dollar becomes less bear.

Speculators are trying to sell the ruble on the idea of an impending diesel embargo

The ruble carries losses in relation to the dollar for the results of the week

Dollar/ruble at Mosbirzh intervals of 1 minute

Dollar/ruble at Forex intervals at 4 hours

The ruble is being prepared for weekly losses in relation to the US dollar, despite the usual support of the Russian currency at the end of the month, since exporting companies sell foreign currency for taxes. The ruble weakens by 0.2% at the auction in Moscow to 69,3975/$, this week is expected to fall by 0.8%.

The ruble this week was strengthened at the beginning, but in the second half began to decline, according to Alor Broker.

“In recent days, the ruble has a tendency to weaken, but speculators do not have enough good arguments to play more actively against the Russian currency, ” the analysts of the Moscow company noted in a note.

The ruble adds 0.1% in relation to Yuan to 10.2580, reducing weekly losses to 1.4%. The index of Russian government bonds has not changed much by 130.19. The Moscow Exchange index adds 0.5% to 2 177.83, weekly growth has reached 0.5% at the moment. Brent oil is growing by 1.2% today to $88.51 per barrel.

The currency pair of the dollar/ruble will most likely continue to demonstrate a lateral movement on Friday on Friday with attempts to light growth in the range of 69-70 rubles. /Bulge in the background of market universality, the chief analyst of the department of economic and industry analysis of Promsvyazbank (PSB) of Yegor Yegor saysZhilnikov.

“The amplitude of the oscillations in the foreign exchange market has decreased sharply since mid -January. The USD/RUB pair is located about 69 rubles ./$1. Probably, in the near future this consolidation will continue. But in the CNY/RUB pair, the volatility is higher. In the last couple of sessions, Yuan looks likestronger than all other currencies. A pair with a ruble, the course can rise to 10.35-10.5, ”said BCS Express Express Express.

Investors invest money in developing markets with an almost record pace

This week more than $1 billion was poured into the promotions and bonds daily, which is a strong beginning of 2023

Investors invest funds in the shares and bonds of developing markets with almost record speed, since the drop in inflation and the resumption of China’s economy help to turn back the last year’s decline.

According to high -frequency data that tracks 21 countries from the Institute of International Finance, this week developing shares and debt markets attracted $1.1 billion per day of net new money. The speed of cross -border flows is currently second only to the surge, which followed the removal of quarantine at the end of 2020 and early 2021, exceeding the previous peaks over the past two decades.

A strong tributary emphasizes a significant shift in moods this year after gloomy indicators for developing markets for most of 2022. The fall of global inflation has forced many market participants to rely on the fact that the main central banks of developed countries, including the US federal reserve system, will soon stop increasing interest rates, which will eliminate the main source of problems for developing markets.

Jahangir Aziz, an analyst at JPMorgan, said that there is a “a lot of gasoline in the tank” to further restore the inflow now, when the key economic factors of the uncertainty that have pressed on developing markets are “removed”.

The threat of the recession has retreated. Data published on Thursday showed that the US economy increased more than expected in the last quarter of 2022, increasing in annual terms by 2.9%, while unemployment benefits remained low.

China’s decision to abandon its zero distribution policy of Covid also had a great influence. The tributaries in the country amount to $800 million of $1.1 billion per day for all developing markets, show data IIF, while other developing countries get benefits from the domino effect from Beijing’s actions.

The assets of developing markets were also helped by the expectations of investors that this year developing countries will surpass countries with developed economies. JPMorgan expects that gross domestic product in developing markets will grow by 1.4 percentage points more than growth rates in countries with developed economies in 2023, compared with zero in the second half of 2022.

MSCI Emerging Markets reference index shares increased by almost 25% compared to the minimum at the end of October. An increase of more than 20% of the recent minimum is considered a bull market.

Despite the strong beginning of 2023, some investors and analysts warn that such high rates of the influx are unlikely to be preserved.

Paul Grire, a portfoliral debt manager for developing countries in Fidelity International, said that most of the rally assets of developing markets may be already behind.

“In the first and second quarters [2023] there will be a rise in China, there is no doubt about it, ” he said. “But most of this has already been appreciated by markets. . . Perhaps we saw the lion’s share of the rally in this cycle. ”

GRIR said that the rally was partially explained by the fact that investors returned to the assets of developing markets after a sharp reduction in their investments over the last of the last decade, especially during the first three quarters of the last year.

Many developing countries had previously hardly sought high growth rates after the financial crisis of 2008-2009 and especially suffered from the jump in global inflation and the US dollar for most of 2022.

GRIR added that, despite the recent restoration, investors are unlikely to be optimistic regarding the growth of developing markets in the future. According to him, the growing level of debt, strengthening the budget burden in most developing countries and the increasingly negative impact of demographic factors will reduce potential growth.

“It is difficult to be as rainbow in relation to developing markets as it was before Covid, ” he said.

Prepared by Profinance. ru based on the materials of The Financial Times 

Sberbank gave forecast for the ruble on Friday

On Friday, the ruble will remain near 69 rubles ./$1 – Sbercib

Dollar/ruble at Mosbirzh intervals of 1 minute

Dollar/ruble at Forex intervals at 4 hours

Brent brand oil quotes can rise to $88 per barrel at auction on Friday, Sbercib Investment Research analysts say.

“The market participants are afraid that with the entry into force (from February 5), the embargo for the import of oil products from Russia in the European diesel fuel market can be formed. So far, Russia provides 40% of the diesel engine imported into the EU, ” analysts say in comments.

OFZ quotes on Friday can stabilize around Thursday levels, according to investment bank.

Sbercib analysts also believe that the mark is 69 rubles. /Bolsho corresponds to the short -term equilibrium value of the ruble and on Friday it will remain near this level.

The dollar is trying to raise his head

Yena grows on bets on the cancellation of stimulation of the Japanese Bank; the euro weakens on the eve of the meeting of the ECB

Graph of the dollar index in intervals of 5 minutes

Yena grew up to the dollar on Friday, as high inflation rates in Tokyo spurred rates that the decision of the Japanese Bank (Boj) is just around the corner.

Nevertheless, the US dollar departed from an almost nine -month minimum against the euro and a seven -month minimum in relation to pound sterling, since the traders were preparing for a critical week when central banks responsible for all three currencies meet.

The dollar lost 0.17% to 129.96 yen at Asian auction after the data showed that consumer prices in the capital of Japan accelerated to almost 42-year-old maximum this month, putting pressure on the bank of Japan so that it refuses to stimulate.

Nevertheless, this was significantly lower than the previous daily minimum 129.50 and much further from the minimum for 7.5 months 127.215, reached last week, when it was expected that the Central Bank would change politics. After on January 18, representatives of the Japan Bank unanimously voted to preserve the stimulation parameters unchanged, the currency pair jumped to 131.58.

“Market expectations of changes at any time (from the Bank of Japan), including the next meeting in March, will remain high, and this will support the demand for Ien, ” said Sinichiro Kadota, Barclays strategist in Tokyo, who saw the possibility of a breakthrough of the dollar/yena pair below125.

“If there are any attacks of the weakness of the yen, I think that the upper part (pair) will still be limited by these expectations, ” Kadota said.

During the week, the dollar grew by about 0.28% in relation to Yen after the fluctuations between profit and loss.

Euro moves to growth by 0.17% with respect to the dollar since last Friday, at the third victorious week in a row. This despite the decline by 0.17% to $1.08715 per day, rolling back from yesterday’s maximum of $1.09295, a level that was last observed in April.

The traders generally expect the Fed will increase interest rates by 25 basic points (B. P. ) On Wednesday, which is one step below 50 B. P. December. Meanwhile, the ECB practically pledged to increase its key rate by half a percent the next day.

The dollar index, which measures the currency in relation to six main currencies, including the Euro, Ian and the British pound, grew by 0.19% to 101.94, although this still left it in the way to a slight decrease this week.

The pound of sterling decreased by 0.23% to 1.23825 dollars, demonstrating an insignificant loss in a week.

Nevertheless, the British currency remains near the seven -month maximum of $1.24475, reached on Monday, even despite the fact that the Bank of England is faced with the problem of controlling inflation without prejudice to the economy that is already in the recession. The Bank of England will make its following political decision on Thursday, and it is expected that this will be an increase by half of the paragraph.

The Australian dollar sensitive to risk has not changed at $0.7114, not far from the seven -month maximum of Thursday of $0.71425. Inflation data in Australia, published earlier this week, showed that consumer prices are growing at the fastest pace in 33 years, strengthening the expectations of a further increase in interest rates with the reserve bank of Australia.

During the week, the Australian dollar grew by 2.09%, reaching the largest weekly growth since the beginning of November.

Prepared by Profinance. ru based on the materials of Thomson Reuters

Why does the dollar not lose the status of the world reserve currency

Recent geopolitical events have revived the old question of whether something is threatened by something hegemony of the dollar. There is no threat. In any case, the events taking place only emphasize why the dollar king remains on the throne

Another contender is the planned single South American currency with the working name SUR (South). This idea has been discussed since the 1980s, but Bloomberg Porter, a Bloomberd Porter, observer, believes that it is dangerous or inappropriate. If this happens someday, then it will be used to simplify the trade between Brazil and Argentina (although they will retain their own currencies). Other South American countries may want to join if they manage to solve problems associated with illiquid, volatile local currencies. But there is a currency that is already doing this – the US dollar.

The dollar remains the world currency, and half of the two trillion banknotes is in circulation outside the United States. In many countries, the daily use of the dollar in retail trade replaces local currency. About 40% of world debt was released in dollars. This gives the United States exorbitant privileges. The enormous deficit of the country’s current account is a much smaller problem, since the import that absorbs an insatiable American consumer sector is often paid in dollars. It also creates enormous opportunities for control, which can confirm any institution or private person located outside the long -hands of the US Department of Finance.

But this also means that the United States acts as a global lender of the last instance. Almost 60% of global currency reserves are in dollars, while the euro – with 20% – takes second place. Almost 90% of all currency transactions are made using the dollar. To stimulate the economy, in response to global pandemia, large -scale currency curls between the federal reserve system and friendly central banks were introduced.

Although his positions, balanced in the specific gravity in foreign trade, have recently staggered, it is not at all surprising that the dollar has been strengthened over the period after the global financial crisis. The recent collapse of cryptocurrencies emphasizes how difficult it is to resist the leader. The American economy, along with its bonds and shares, has become a refuge for global investors both in bad and in good times – a phenomenon known as the smile of the dollar.

Creation of new oil refineries

A more discussed threat to the dollar is talk about the trade in hydrocarbons between China and Saudi Arabia without the use of the dollar. Saudi Arabia replaced Russia as the largest supplier of oil in Beijing, putting 15% of 350 million barrels bought by China only in December.

The good old barter can be used in the trade of China with Russia and even Iran. But it is unlikely that Saudi Arabia is strongly needed by Chinese goods or yuan, since the cost of oil, which it exports $50 billion a year equivalent to the second largest economy. Setting accounts in euros can partially solve the problem, but there are restrictions here. Saudi Arabia needs to ensure the profitability of their foreign exchange reserves, and American treasury bonds not only give higher profitability than Chinese or European sovereign bonds, but also benefit from the fact that they are probably the most liquid securities on the planet.

The American currency would lose the dominant status in the event of a competing oilwoman. But there are objective reasons why the vast majority of world hydrocarbons are denominated in dollars and will be so in the future. The organization of oil exporting countries, which entered into an alliance with Russia, cannot control the price or supply of oil. And she will not be able to create a competing currency.

The advantages of the dollar include fame and scale. The size matters: about 40% of world trade is paid in dollars, which is four times higher than the US share in world trade. The dollar accounts for 42% of the volume of interbank transactions in the SWIFT network. The share of the yuan is 2%. The euro accounts for 36%, but basically these are transactions between 20 members of the eurozone. The share of the euro in world trade is much less – 16%. There is simply no alternative to the dollar outside the corresponding internal zones.

The internal need to control its own currency significantly outweighs the illusory advantages of participation in the supranational network; Take, for example, doubts about the suitability of the euro for purposes, given the economic differences between the participating countries. As long as the largest Asian powers – India, China, Japan and Korea – will decide to create a new currency, the dollar will remain a leading world currency.

Prepared by Profinance. ru based on the materials of The Washington Post

Sberbank lit up the nearest ruble dynamics

The ruble ceases to fall on the eve of the latest taxes

Dollar/ruble at Mosbirzh intervals of 1 minute

Dollar/ruble at Forex intervals at 4 hours

The Russian currency is preparing to strengthen the US dollar for the first time this week. Promotions can grow for the first time in three sessions. Increased demand for foreign currency on Wednesday was probably caused by geopolitical tension, said Yuri Popov, Sbercib Investment Research analyst.

“During the day, the ruble can weaken up to 70 per dollar, but at such levels it will be attractive for exporters, and then return to 69.0-69.5 per dollar, ” he said in a note today.

The ruble is strengthened by 0.2% in Moscow auction to 69.1400/$, falls by 0.3% in relation to Yuanu until 10.2500.

Euro/dollar is growing against the backdrop of the discrepancy between macrostatistics in Europe and the USA

Excessive optimism in the United States and the same excess pessimism in Europe were laid down in the quotes of a couple last year. However, now the situation is changing: in addition to the discrepancy in macrostatics between Europe and the USA, there is also a discrepancy in the courses of the monetary policy of the ECB and the Fed.

   CITI economic surprises index according to the eurozone (pink) and in the USA (orange). Source: Bloomberg

The discrepancy between macroeconomic statistics in Europe, where it improves, and in the United States, where it worsens, provides support for the euro paired with the dollar.

Excessive optimism in the United States and the same excess pessimism in Europe were laid down in the quotes of a couple last year. However, now the situation is changing: in addition to the discrepancy in macrostatics between Europe and the USA, there is also a discrepancy in the courses of the monetary policy of the ECB and the Fed. In particular, the first Central Bank is approximately in the middle of the rate of raising bets, while the second is close to its completion.

   Euro to the dollar intervals 1 day

“The tough rhetoric of ECB representatives provides support for a single currency, ” said Audrey Child-Frimiman, chief currency strategist Bloomberg Intelligence. “However, such a rhetoric can support the euro only in the event of a positive macroeconomic context, which we are now observing. ”

The dollar rate is located near an eight -month minimum

The Fed does not lead the process of increasing interest rates, and economic trends in the United States continue to deteriorate

The schedule of the dollar index intervals in 1 day

The US dollar index, which measures the dollar with respect to the currency basket, increased by 0.1% to 101.65, after falling to 101.52 earlier during the session, testing the eight -month minimum week 101.51.

Trade was weak because Australia closed on vacation, and some parts of Asia were still absent in connection with the Lunar New Year.

Low income and weak forecasts of American companies, as well as a series of dismissal in the technological sector, strengthened fears about a sharp economic decline in the United States, which made investors reduce expectations about how much more the federal reserve system would be required for aggressive increase in interest rates.

“Now there are signs that the US economy may slow down in a more significant way, ” said Wells Fargo economists.

“Since the Fed does not lead the process of increasing interest rates, and economic trends in the United States continue to deteriorate, we now believe that the US dollar has entered a period of a cyclic decline in relation to most foreign currencies. “

The FRS Committee on Political Development will begin a two -day meeting next week, and the markets estimated the increase in the interest rate at 25 basic points (B. P. ), Which is one step lower than the increase in the central bank by 50 B. P. and 75 BP, observed last year.

On the eve of this, the Ministry of Trade should publish preliminary estimates of the US gross domestic product for the fourth quarter later on Thursday.

Meanwhile, the markets expect that the politicians of the Bank of England and the European Central Bank (ECB), which will also gather next week, will increase rates by 50 B. P. Most likely, the ECB will preserve the hawk attitude.

The pound sterling practically did not change and amounted to $1.2400, while the euro decreased by 0.03% to $1.0911, although it remained close to its nine -month maximum of $1.0927, reached on Monday.

“Euro really attracts a lot of attention, ” said Jarrod Kerr, chief economist Kiwibank. In the eurozone “there was a favorable winter . . . . The energy crisis that people expected had not yet played out. “

The Canadian dollar was last traded at the level of 1.3399 per US dollar after the Canada Bank on Wednesday increased the key interest rate to 4.5%, but became the first large central bank fighting with global inflation, which said that, ratherIn total, while refraining from further increase.

The Australian dollar grew by 0.2% to 0.7117 dollars amid the increased expectations that the Australian reserve bank has much to be done to increase interest rates after shocking data on the environment showed that inflation in Australia has grown to 33-year-oldMaximum in the last quarter.

The New Zealand dollar grew by 0.1% to 0.6486 dollars after falling by 0.43% at the previous session, since annual inflation in New Zealand in the fourth quarter was lower than the forecast of the Central Bank.

In Asia, Japanese yen increased by 0.2% to 129.32 per dollar.

Politicians of Japan Bank (BOJ) discussed the forecast of inflation at their January meeting, with some warnings that it may take time for sustainable growth of wages, as shown by the summary of opinions at their meeting on Thursday.

At this meeting, the Japanese Bank retained super-low interest rates without changes, but strengthened the tool of monetary policy so that the yield of 10-year bonds would not exceed a new limit of 0.5%. His decision did not live up to market expectations regarding further changes in monetary policy.

Prepared by Profinance. ru based on the materials of Thomson Reuters

Head of the Turkish lyre is now more expensive than the Russian ruble

Six months of risk-rack grew to a four-month maximum

Currency investors pay the highest bonus in four months to insure themselves with further losses of the Turkish lira, as they are preparing for the national elections.

SPRAD of six-month options for selling a US dollar lira compared to the Options for the purchase of a Turkish currency, known as 25-este risk turning, increased to 13 percentage points this week. This is the largest hedging award among the main currencies of developing markets. This dubious title previously belonged to the Russian ruble.

Ставки на падение лиры растут | Стоимость хеджирования от падения лиры достигла 4-месячного максимума

Президент Реджеп Тайип Эрдоган намекнул, что президентские и парламентские выборы могут быть перенесены на 14 мая с первоначальной даты 18 июня. Голосование рассматривается как решающий момент для иностранных инвесторов, которые были вынуждены оставаться в стороне на фоне проведения в стране нетрадиционной макроэкономической и денежно-кредитной политики.

“This shows that the prospects have worsened, ” said Christian Majio, head of the portfolio department and ESG strategy in TD Securities in London. “On the eve of the election, there is a risk that the Central Bank can again reduce interest rates before voting, and all this begins to more noticeably influence the expectations of the market. Thus, options begin to more accurately evaluate the risk of loosening the lyre from current levels, ”he said.

Lira, one of the few currencies, still offering a negative real yield, has been traded in a narrow range from September thanks to a carefully thought-out strategy, including intervention. The Committee on Monetary Policy last week added uncertainty to the direction of his policy, removing the phrase that the current rates are “adequate”. Politicians left the base rate unchanged for two months in a row after a decrease in 500 basic points.

Prepared by Profinance. ru based on Bloomberg materials 

The dollar is growing, as traders are waiting for the solution of the Fed

The lull in Asia also affects the lethargy of trading in Europe

Graph of the dollar index in intervals of 5 minutes

The dollar grew on Wednesday at auction with a small turnover, since investors expected the solutions to the federal reserve system for monetary policy next week, while the euro traded just below the nine -month maximum.

The euro decreased by 0.26% in relation to the dollar to $1.086 compared to the level of $1.093, reached on Friday, which was the highest since the beginning of May.

Meanwhile, the dollar decreased by 0.32% in relation to Jena to 129.74 yen per dollar, reaching an 8-month minimum of 127.22 January 16.

Elvin Tan, the head of the Asian Department of the RBC Capital Markets currency strategy, said that the markets were calm because of the New Year holidays on the lunar calendar and the approaching Fed

“Most of Asia is still on vacation, ” Tan said. “We will have a meeting of the Fed very soon, and I think that before that you should show some caution. “

The drop in world energy prices and the slowdown of inflation in countries with a developed economy have caused speculation that the Fed and other central banks could soon stop increasing interest rates.

These expectations led to the fact that the dollar index, which grew against the background of increasing the Fed’s rates last year, fell by more than 11% from the 20-year maximum of September 114.78.

The index increased by 0.12% to 102.04 in Wednesday. The pound of sterling fell by 0.25% to $1.231.

The traders generally expect the Fed will increase rates by 25 basic points (B. P. ) on the next environment, which is one step below 50 B. P. December. Before that, investors will carefully study the data on the economic growth of the United States for the fourth quarter, which will be published on Thursday.

The data on Tuesday showed that business activity in the eurozone suddenly returned to moderate growth in January. Waiting for further raising rates by the European Central Bank also supported the euro.

According to a survey of the IFO Institute, published on Wednesday, the morale of German business has improved in January, since inflation decreased, and the prospects improved.

On the contrary, business activity in the United States decreased for the seventh month in a row in January, showed data on Tuesday, although the decline in the manufacturing industry and the service sector slowed down for the first time since September.

“(Data) simply confirm that, firstly, stability in Europe is obvious . . . And, secondly, the problems that they encountered in terms of energy were not as detrimental as some expected, ” said Rodrigo Catherine, National Australia Bank currency strategist.

“At the same time, the slowdown in the US growth in the point of view of activity seems to intensify. “

The Australian dollar grew to more than a five -month maximum on Wednesday after inflation data turned out to be hotter than expected, which strengthened the arguments in favor of further raising rates with the reserve bank of Australia.

The Australian dollar last time 0.63% to 0.709 dollars.

Meanwhile, the New Zealand dollar decreased by 0.54% to $0.647 after the annual inflation in New Zealand in the amount of 7.2% in the fourth quarter was 7.5% lower than the forecast of the central bank.

The dollar practically did not change in relation to its Canadian analogue on the eve of the last decision of the Canada Bank at rate at 15:00 on Greenwich on Wednesday, having bought 1,337 Canadian dollars.

Prepared by Profinance. ru based on the materials of Thomson Reuters

The ruble is restored to the US dollar on the eve of the peak of tax payments

Falling oil does not give a ruble the opportunity to develop success

Dollar/ruble at Mosbirzh intervals of 1 minute

Dollar/ruble at Forex intervals at 4 hours

The Russian ruble is growing in relation to the US dollar and the euro against the backdrop of support from local tax payments. Promotions are ready to reduce the second session. The ruble adds 0.2% in Moscow, bargaining to 68,8500/$, rises 0.4% with respect to the euro to 74.8750.

“The peak of the current tax period falls on January 30, and in the second half of the week the ruble can be strengthened, ” said analysts of St. Petersburg Bank. “The USDRUB rate still has a potential for a decrease to 68.5 rubles/$ to weekend. ”

Trading the Russian currency is inactive and the course has almost not changed in the sector with Chinese Yuan, where demand and demand are now balanced at 10.1450. The exchanges of mainland China and Hong Kong are closed in connection with the holiday (New Year according to the lunar calendar).

The index of Russian government bonds has almost changed by 130.03 before two unlimited auctions for the placement of OFZ. The Moscow Exchange index of Russia glides 0.3% to 2166.91.

Oil Brent falls by 0.2% to $85.94 per barrel after a decrease by 2.3% on Tuesday.

On January 25, exporting companies will transfer VAT, NPPs and excise taxes to the budget, followed by income tax, which will support the ruble

Probably a slight weakening of the ruble positions in relation to the US dollar at auction on Wednesday, amid the activity of exporters on the market, the relevant range is 68.5-69.5 rubles ./BUST, believes the chief analyst of the department of economic and industry analysis of Promsvyazbank (PSB) Egor Egor)Zhilnikov.

Sberbank gave forecast for the ruble on Wednesday

The ruble is likely to remain about 69 rubles ./$1 at auction on Wednesday – Sbercib

Dollar/ruble at Mosbirzh intervals of 1 minute

Dollar/ruble at Forex intervals at 4 hours

“OFZ on Tuesday was mostly cheaper-profitability mainly increased by 2-10 B. P. On Wednesday, two auctions for papers with a fixed coupon will take place-in 6-year and 13-year releases. In our opinion, if the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation retains increased bonusesAt the level of last week, profitability can grow into several more basic points, ”writes Sbercib Investment Research analysts.

Also, Sberbank experts believe that during the day the Brent barrels will continue to bargain about $86 (there were reports that OPEC+ participants are organizing current production quotas on the eve of the meeting of the monitoring committee, which will be held on February 1).

The dollar continues to go down

The Australian jumped after inflation data; the euro bounced against the background of economic stability

Auss/dollar schedule in intervals at 15 minutes

The Australian dollar jumped by more than 0.8% to $0.7108, the highest level from August, after a sharp jump in inflation to the 33-year-old maximum in the last quarter has spurred the rates that the Australia reserve bank (RBA) will needContinue to increase interest rates.

“Today’s report should quickly dispel hopes for a pause in the tightening cycle of the RBA DKP in February, ” said Matt Simpson, senior analyst in the City Index market.

“Given the likely growth of interest rates in Australia, the resumption of the China economy and higher basic prices for raw materials, the Australian dollar can become a strong currency due to the growth of interest rates. “

Meanwhile, the New Zealand dollar decreased by almost 0.6% to $0.6469 earlier during the session and was last bought by 0.6485 dollars after annual inflation in New Zealand in the amount of 7.2% in the fourth quarterBelow the forecast of the Central Bank is 7.5%.

“We think that now we are observing the worst inflation, we think that inflation has reached its peak, ” said Jarrod Kerr, chief economist Kiwibank.

“We expect that the rate of money market in New Zealand will reach a peak at 5%, and not 5.5%, which the reserve bank is talking about, ” he said, referring to the central bank of New Zealand.

The euro grew by 0.05% to 1.0894 dollars, approaching the nine -month maximum of Monday of $1.0927, since the amazingly stable eurozone economy and the hawk rhetoric of the politicians of the European Central Bank (ECB) supported a single currency.

The data on Tuesday showed that business activity in the eurozone unexpectedly returned to moderate growth in January, indicating that the decline in the block may not be as deep as they feared.

Expectations of further increase in ECB rates also contributed to positive moods. Politicians are committed to containing inflation, but are in opinion to the size of steps that go beyond the likely increase by half a percent in February.

On the contrary, in the United States there are more gloomy prospects, since signs of slowdown in economic growth after an aggressive increase in bets by the federal reserve system last year begin to appear.

Business activity in the United States decreased in the seventh month in a row in January, although the decline slowed down both in the production sector and in the service sector for the first time since September.

In relation to the currency basket, the US dollar index increased by 0.02% to 101.93, although not far from the almost eight -month minimum last week at 101.51.

“(Data) simply confirm this, firstly, stability in Europe . . . and the problems that they encountered in terms of energy were not as detrimental as some expected, while at the same time the slowdown of economic activity inThe United States seems to intensify, ”said Rodrigo Katri, the National Australia Bank currency strategist.

The pound sterling fell into 0.15% to $1.2322, while Japanese yen was last cost 130.53 dollars.

Prime Minister Fumio Kisida said that he would decide on the next head of Japan Bank (Boj), observing economic trends. The term of powers of the current head of Japan Haruhiko Kuroda ends in April.

Prepared by Profinance. ru based on the materials of Thomson Reuters

2023-01-28 05:12