Captain America: Brave New World’s Opening Weekend Box Office Projection

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In the opening projections for Captain America: Brave New World domestically, there’s quite a bit that seems underwhelming.

The deadline indicates that the total amount is “over $95 million in 4 days,” which covers the period from Thursday, February 13 (for previews) to Sunday, February 16.

Deadline further elaborated:

Ticket sales for the new release began on Monday, and it’s being reported that they’re running about 15% slower compared to Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, which debuted with $118.4 million. However, it’s worth noting that this new film is currently performing better than Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings ($94.6M over four days), Black Adam ($67M), and The Flash ($55M).

When $100 Million Is Just Okay

In most movies, earning $100M during the opening weekend is considered a major achievement. However, due to their incredible success, Marvel films barely meet this benchmark.

Or:

Achieving $100M in box office sales during a Marvel movie’s opening weekend has become standard rather than exceptional, as these films have consistently surpassed expectations.

Or:

For most movies, making $100M on the first weekend is a significant victory, but for Marvel movies, this amount is merely a baseline due to their consistent success.

Thirty-four Marvel Cinematic Universe (MCU) movies have been released so far, with twenty of them raking in an opening weekend box office revenue of at least $100 million or more. Twelve of these films surpassed the $150 million mark during their opening weekends, while six managed to earn over $200 million within their first weekend.

Among the 14 movies that didn’t surpass $100 million on their opening weekend, six of them were among the initial ten releases dating back from 2008 to 2014. Conversely, during the period between 2015 and the pandemic, Marvel produced 13 films, with only three failing to generate $100 million domestically during their opening weekend.

Since the release of “No Way Home” in December 2021, an impressive trend has emerged in the MCU. Out of the seven films that followed, six of them surpassed the $100 million mark on their opening weekends. The exception to this streak was “The Marvels,” which unfortunately had the lowest opening box office ever, earning only $46.1 million.

Given the massive success of the previous collaboration between Deadpool and Wolverine, earning a staggering $1.3 billion at the global box office, it’s only natural to anticipate that the positive wave would propel Brave New World past the $100 million mark.

Why Captain America: Brave New World May Disappoint

In essence, the main issue with “Brave New World” is that it’s missing the presence of Sam Rogers. Just as musicians must perform their greatest hits at concerts to keep the audience satisfied, movie fans expect their beloved characters to be present in a film. The absence of Sam Rogers in “Brave New World” is like these essential elements being left out, leaving some viewers feeling disappointed.

Although Anthony Mackie has portrayed Sam Wilson/Falcon in the Marvel Cinematic Universe since the release of “Winter Soldier” in 2014, it’s important to note that he is not actually playing Sam Rogers. Some viewers may choose to wait for streaming or even skip the movie due to this fact. However, despite being the fourth film featuring Captain America, this new installment can essentially be considered a reboot.

Looking at the MCU’s box office records, it seems that the initial films tend to earn less money compared to others. Interestingly, nine out of fourteen movies with a budget under $100 million were standalone films for various characters. The exceptions to this pattern were Spider-Man, Black Panther, and Captain Marvel, who managed to escape this lack of interest in their introductory films.

Why Captain America: Brave New World Will Succeed

In the preceding decade, the Marvel Cinematic Universe (MCU) held a dominant position in cinematography. However, the 2020s have presented some significant challenges. During the early stages of the MCU, Bob Iger granted significant power to Kevin Feige. When Iger stepped down in 2020 and Bob Chapek assumed control, Feige experienced a loss of authority. For two consecutive years, Feige and Chapek found themselves at odds regarding the direction of the MCU.

Due to various factors, including that one, Disney’s board requested Chapek to resign in November 2022, allowing Iger to return as the CEO again. This meant that Feige’s main ally, who held significant influence, was back in position.

You can consider “The Marvels” as the culmination of the Feige-Chapek rivalry, and “Deadpool & Wolverine” as a comeback to what the Marvel Cinatic Universe (MCU) once was. Feige has something to show, not just to figures like Chapek who sought control, but also to the global audience who have been criticizing the decline in MCU quality. Essentially, he wants to prove that he still reigns supreme.

Given those circumstances, I’m confident that Brave New World will captivate audiences so thoroughly that positive word of mouth will propel it well beyond the $100M mark.

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2025-01-23 23:08