🚀 Bitcoin’s Wild Ride: Economy Crumbles, BTC Mooning? 🤔

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Markets

What to know: 🧐

  • CPI jumped 0.4% MoM (because who doesn’t love a surprise inflation party? 🎉) vs. 0.3% expected. Jobless claims are climbing faster than a wizard on a broomstick, and job-creation data got a “whoopsie” revision. 🛠️
  • Bitcoin’s holding higher lows, eyeing the CME gap near $117,300 like a troll under a bridge. 🌉
  • The 200-day moving average hit $102,000, and short-term holders are sitting pretty with an all-time high cost basis. 💰

Bitcoin’s up 4% in a week-great for hodlers, not so great for the economy, which is currently doing its best impression of a banana peel. 🍌

Last week’s economic data was about as cheerful as a dwarf with a hangover. 🧙‍♂️ The Federal Reserve’s now eyeing rate cuts like a kid eyes cake, making risky assets (like Bitcoin and stocks) look as tempting as a double-decker pie. 🥧

Let’s recap the chaos, shall we? 📜

The U.S. CPI figures dropped on Thursday, slightly higher than expected. Inflation’s stickier than a goblin’s fingers in a honey pot. 🐝

Before that, Tuesday’s job data revisions revealed the U.S. created 1 million fewer jobs than reported. That’s the biggest “oops” since someone accidentally summoned a dragon. 🐉

The monthly jobs report? A mere 22,000 jobs added in August, with unemployment rising to 4.3%. Jobless claims jumped 27,000 to 263,000-the highest since October 2021. Someone call the clacks, this is bad news! 📣

“Stagflation” is back in the chatter, because nothing says fun like an economy that’s both stagnant and inflating. 🎈

Meanwhile, Bitcoin-Wall Street’s favorite risk asset-keeps climbing, hitting $116,000 on Friday and nearly closing the CME gap at $117,300. Not surprising, since traders are bidding up equities like they’re going out of fashion. The S&P 500 closed at a record high, hoping for a rate cut like a dog waiting for treats. 🐶

So, what’s the chart saying? 🗺️

To this chart enthusiast (who may or may not have a degree in doodling), the price action’s constructive. Higher lows from September’s $107,500 bottom, the 200-day moving average at $102,083, and the Short-Term Holder Realized Price at a record $109,668. Bullish? Maybe. Confusing? Absolutely. 🤯

Bitcoin-linked stocks: A mixed bag 🎲

Bitcoin’s weekly gains didn’t help Strategy (MSTR), the biggest bitcoin treasury company, whose shares stayed flatter than a pancake. 🥞 Rivals MARA Holdings (MARA) and XXI (CEP) did better, up 7% and 4% respectively. Go figure. 🤷‍♂️

MSTR’s underperforming Bitcoin year-to-date and hovering below its 200-day moving average ($355). At Thursday’s close of $326, it’s testing a key support level from September 2024 and April 2025. Someone fetch the wizard, we need a spell for this. 🧙‍♂️

The mNAV premium’s compressed to below 1.5x, or 1.3x based on equity value. Preferred stock issuance? As quiet as a librarian in a library. Only $17 million tapped this week, with most issuance flowing through common shares. Options are trading for perpetual preferred stocks, though, so there’s that. 🧾

Bullish catalysts for crypto stocks? 🚀

The CME’s FedWatch tool says traders expect a 25 basis-point rate cut in September, with three cuts by year-end. Risk sentiment’s tilting toward growth, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury briefly dipped below 4%. 🌊

But the dollar index (DXY) is holding multiyear support-a potential inflection point to watch. Because nothing’s ever simple in the world of finance. Or Discworld. 🌍

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2025-09-14 11:27