Markets
What to know: (Or what to pretend you know at the next cocktail party 🍸)
- Cantor Fitzgerald reckons crypto is entering a downturn, but hey, institutions are still throwing their hats into the ring. 🎩
- Real-world asset tokenization and DEX trading are growing, because apparently, Bitcoin’s price drop is just a minor inconvenience. 🌧️
- Institutional investors are now the cool kids in town, leaving retail traders in the dust. Sorry, not sorry. 🤷♂️
So, Bitcoin might be heading into a prolonged downturn, according to Cantor Fitzgerald. But don’t panic! This is just the universe’s way of saying, “Hold on to your butts, because we’re about to get institutional.” 🚀
Markets are probably in the early phase of a crypto winter, echoing Bitcoin’s historical four-year cycle. Brett Knoblauch, the analyst with a name that sounds like a character from a 19th-century novel, says Bitcoin is roughly 85 days past its peak. Prices could remain under pressure for months, possibly even testing Strategy’s (MSTR) average breakeven price near $75,000. Because, you know, why not? 💸
Unlike past downturns, this one might not involve mass liquidations or structural failures. Institutional participants are now calling the shots, which is great news if you’re an institution. For the rest of us, it’s like being invited to a party where you don’t know anyone. 🎉
Take real-world asset (RWA) tokenization. The value of tokenized RWAs onchain has tripled this year to $18.5 billion. Cantor says it could hit $50 billion in 2026, because apparently, financial institutions are finally figuring out how to use blockchain without accidentally deleting their wallets. 🏦
Decentralized exchanges (DEXs) are also gaining ground, because who needs intermediaries when you can trade directly with strangers on the internet? While trading volumes might fall in 2026, DEXs are expected to keep growing, because user experience is improving. Finally, someone listened to the complaints about clunky interfaces! 🎮
Regulatory clarity is the unsung hero here. The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act (CLARITY) is like a lighthouse in a storm, guiding banks and asset managers into the crypto waters. It defines when a digital asset is a security versus a commodity, and hands oversight to the CFTC. Because nothing says “legitimacy” like a government agency stepping in. 🏛️
Other trends include the rise of onchain prediction markets, especially in sports betting. Volumes have hit $5.9 billion, which is more than half of DraftKings’ handle in Q3. Robinhood, Coinbase, and Gemini are all jumping on the bandwagon, offering fairer alternatives to traditional sportsbooks. Because who doesn’t love a good bet? 🎰
Of course, risks remain. Bitcoin’s price is only 17% above Strategy’s average cost basis. A drop below that could spook the market, even though Cantor thinks the firm is unlikely to sell. Meanwhile, digital asset trusts are slowing down, because token prices and trust premiums are compressing. It’s like a game of financial Jenga, but with higher stakes. 🧱
So, the coming year might not be crypto’s next big breakout, but the groundwork for more durable infrastructure and deeper institutional adoption is being laid. Even as prices cool, the future looks… well, less chaotic. Which is nice, I guess? 🛠️
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2025-12-29 19:00