Bitcoin Halving is Over. Will Bitcoin Price Fall down?

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The fourth Bitcoin halving that was expected today is completed successfully, cutting miners’ rewards in half to 3.125 bitcoins from 6.25. The value of bitcoin has been fluctuating leading up to the occasion, and dropped approximately 5% this week to be valued at around $63,880. Bitcoin halving impacts supply dynamics by halving new Bitcoin creation every four years, decreasing inflation and potentially increasing price due to scarcity and consistent or rising demand. Can the price of BTC go against the expectations of crypto enthusiasts and investors and start a downward trend?

Current Bitcoin Price Action

Bitcoin’s price decreased by 2.00% over the past 24 hours to reach $63,666.15. However, it still holds the number one spot among cryptocurrencies with a market capitalization of $1.25 trillion. The trading volume has dropped by nearly 36%, suggesting a potential decrease in investor interest or market excitement.

Different perspectives from crypto industry specialists and forecasters on potential Bitcoin price trends following the 2024 Bitcoin halving are shared in various hypothetical situations.

Bitcoin Halving is Over. Will Bitcoin Price Fall down?

Scenario 1: Bitcoin Price Is Likely to Drop

Some industry leaders have embraced a negative outlook towards BTC price movement.

JP Morgan analysts adopt a cautious stance on Bitcoin’s price after the halving event, forecasting a possible decline to $42,000 as a result of decreased rewards and increased production costs affecting miners’ profits. The bank underscores that Bitcoin’s production costs have historically impacted its pricing, estimating a potential post-halving price range between $26,500 and $53,000 before potentially dipping to $42,000.

After the halving, a drop of 20% in the network’s hashrate could lead to an even greater price decrease. Miners who have lower operating costs and efficient rigs will likely thrive in this situation. Publicly traded mining companies may gain more market share following the event. The pre-sale for Scorpion Casino’s $SCORP token has attracted $5 million from approximately 10,000 investors, providing daily staking rewards.

Marathon CEO Fred Thiel agreed with the analysts’ views, stating that the price increase following Bitcoin’s halving event was not an unexpected development for him, as he had anticipated this trend to occur even faster post-halving.

Alternatively, Markus Thielen, the Head of Research at 10x Research, predicted on April 13th that miners could sell off around $5 billion worth of Bitcoin after the halving event, potentially leading to lower market prices.

#Bitcoin Miners Could sell $5bn of BTC post halving – #Altcoin Graveyard?
— 10x Research (@10x_Research) April 12, 2024

At the same time, cryptocurrency expert Cold Blooded Shiller pointed out that Bitcoin’s current positivity might not match up with past tendencies. Factors like the approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF, significant improvements, or the general market mood could be responsible for Bitcoin’s recent stability.

Yet, recognizing the possibility of a significant setback like a 30% drop is worth considering. In the past, Bitcoin has undergone substantial pullbacks, and dipping down to $51,000 might alter the current market situation.

Scenario 2: Bitcoin price is likely to Rise

According to prominent industry figures like venture capitalist Tim Draper, the value of Bitcoin is expected to significantly rise by 2024. They attribute this growth to factors such as the recent approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs and the completion of the Bitcoin halving event. Draper goes even further, anticipating a tripling of Bitcoin’s worth, potentially reaching an astounding $250,000 by the end of the year.

New interest in Bitcoin has been drawn by the availability of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US, offering a less complex investment choice for those hesitant about direct ownership. The limited supply of Bitcoin and its increasing use as a form of payment make it more alluring than traditional currencies that are prone to inflation. According to Draper, the rising adoption of Bitcoin by women could be a significant factor in its value reaching $250,000 or more.

Using Bitcoin ETFs allows investors to add diversity to their portfolios while sticking to conventional investment methods. Bitcoin’s possible gains become part of their investment plans. Bitcoin is highlighted as a protective measure against inflation and questionable fiscal policies from governments, indicating a growing preference for Bitcoin over traditional currencies.

The optimistic views of experts regarding Bitcoin’s future worth underscore the significance of expanding its user community and generating more demand, which in turn fuels market expansion.

With @CNBC @WebSummit . Here is why @bitcoin will reach $250k.

— Tim Draper (@TimDraper) December 16, 2022

On the other hand, a popular crypto trader and analyst Rekt Capital asserts that Bitcoin price might rise, but not immediately after halving. He claims that BTC typically peaks in its bull market around 518-546 days after the Halving. The next peak may occur in mid-September or mid-October 2025 if history repeats itself.

Although Bitcoin is unexpectedly surpassing previous record highs approximately 260 days ahead of schedule, a Pre-Halving Retrace has caused a delay of around 30 days. This may shorten the usual cycle length by half.

From another point of view, the Bull Market summit for Bitcoin could occur around 266 to 315 days following the reestablishment of a previous all-time high. This puts the prospective next peak somewhere in December 2024 or February 2025. It’s essential to keep both viewpoints in mind as Bitcoin’s cycle unfolds, taking into account retracements and consolidations. The forecasted bull market peak could be delayed if these slowdowns persist.

Conclusion

After the latest Bitcoin halving, there have been numerous forecasts about the digital currency’s future value. Some analysts believe that the price could drop due to decreased miner rewards and increased production costs. However, optimists like venture capitalist Tim Draper are hopeful about significant price growth driven by approved spot Bitcoin ETFs and positive market sentiment surrounding the halving. The price of Bitcoin is influenced by various factors such as investor confidence, regulatory decisions, and market trends. Although there may be short-term fluctuations, Bitcoin’s enduring significance in the cryptocurrency realm is demonstrated through its tenacity and dominance.

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2024-04-20 14:39