As a seasoned crypto investor with battle scars from past market corrections and bull runs, I find myself standing at the precipice of another potential turning point for Cardano (ADA). The recent plunge below the psychological $0.3 level is reminiscent of similar dips in the past that have always proven to be excellent buying opportunities – if one can stomach the volatility.
On Monday, the price of Cardano fell by more than 10%, hinting at a potential decline below the significant $0.3 mark. This sharp decrease in value was primarily driven by increased selling activity, which escalated due to a 12% drop in the Japanese stock market and mounting concerns about a recession. This sell-off had a ripple effect across the crypto market, creating a turbulent trading environment. Although the bearish trend lessened during U.S. trading hours, major altcoins have yet to indicate any signs of finding a floor in the market.
Cardano Price Hits Major Support Within Channel Pattern
Over the last fortnight, the daily graph indicates a significant adjustment in the value of Cardano, with its price decreasing from $0.45 to $0.308. This drop corresponds to a 31.5% decline in ADA‘s value, and the market capitalization has dipped to approximately $11.162 as a result of the broader market correction.
Upon delving deeper into the technical analysis, I uncovered that this downtrend has shaped an expanding channel pattern. This price action oscillates between two converging trendlines, suggesting a state of market ambiguity where neither buyers nor sellers seem eager to take charge decisively.
If the wider market selling continues, it might cause the price of ADA to potentially fall below the lower trendline at $0.28, indicating a bearish trend. This drop could intensify, leading ADA to decrease by about 15%, reaching a potential support level around $0.24.
Furthermore, the Global In/Out of the Money (GIOM) measurement for Cardano shows a rather pessimistic trend. At present, a significant amount of 28.1 billion ADA tokens are considered ‘out of money’ (purchased at prices higher than the current market price, resulting in a loss), whereas only 5.7 billion tokens are categorized as ‘in the money’ (acquired at lower prices and currently profitable). This disparity suggests a less secure investor pool, potentially increasing vulnerability to mass selling triggered by panic.
As an analyst, I’ve noticed a significant decrease in large transactions since early July. The count has dropped from approximately 6,500 to around 3,020, representing a steep decline of about 56%. This substantial reduction in high-volume trades might suggest decreased interest among major investors or a shift towards a more cautious market strategy.
Despite trading at $0.309, Cardano’s price is finding support from a lower trendline that previously sparked a 45% increase. Today’s long wick rejection candle suggests strong demand and could signal the formation of a bottom.
day by day, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has significantly decreased, reaching an oversold level of 26%. This could attract dip buyers and possibly initiate a 30% surge toward $0.41.
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2024-08-06 00:01