Well, there it is again, Bitcoin, waltzing cozily near a bloomin’ $110,000! But, if we peer into CryptoQuant’s crystal ball, we uncover a curious curve alignment that faithfully foreshadowed each of the three greatest market calamities Bitcoin has known. The 365-day moving average of the PnL Index – a tool as mysterious to many as my Aunt Polly’s pretzels – danced similar numbers in 2013, 2017, and 2021. And lo and behold, each occasion led to a drop worse than Aunt Polly’s worst pies about 75-80% in the year that followed.
In those bygone eras, the market value took a tumble from $1,100 to $200, then from $19,700 to $3,200, and once more from $69,000 to a sobering $15,500. Each subsequent reset ticked off like clockwork with the mighty Bitcoin halving, that fabled event that halves the new supply every four years and repeats this drama like a well-rehearsed show by the Mississippi River.
The current curve is once again posing for an upper-band photograph, and it’s as clear as the Missouri bubble gum, indicating that profit-taking now overshadows new accumulation. Aha, a delicate balance that, if disrupted, might leave Bitcoin more ruffled than a ferret in a poke at the county fair.
“Oh, the Bitcoin market is just peachy if this four-year cycle theory doesn’t apply.”
– Ki Young Ju (@ki_young_ju) November 3, 2025
If this grand balancing act harkens its past, we may find Bitcoin pirouetting between $22,000 and $30,000 before the next halving recovery attempts to set things right. Our trusty on-chain metrics are startlingly purring like a bullet train at full throttle: cooling realized gains, a cutback on transaction fervor, and slight abandonments from long-term wallets – all classic signs of a gathering storm in the late cycle.
The Future of Bitcoin: A Quadrille or a Waltz?
The beats are all set for CryptoQuant’s Ki Young Ju: one year of spirited zip-a-deez; one year for peaks, like the proud Okies on a Sunflower boat; and two of correction before the halving taps back with a new tune. And just as Aunt Polly predicted the weather by the spit on her knitting, the PnL Index’s present curl is aligning with its ancestral rhythm, flattening out since its lofty 2024 high.
Thus, the future of Bitcoin rests upon whether this four-year theory will persist in its game of puppet master or if it’ll finally release the strings and romp free. Should the jig hold steady, the next deep reset would signify the 2026 accumulation waltz, and we’ll all be there with our eye-pockets full of hopes and dreams.
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2025-11-03 12:12