Bitcoin Breakdown Begins – On-Chain Signals Say “Brace for $104K”

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Alas! The mighty Bitcoin, once a champion in the world of digital riches, has shown signs of weakness once more. A drop of nearly 4% on a melancholic Monday morning hints at what could only be described as an approaching storm – a potential test of the mighty $104,000 support level.

In a rather scholarly post, the esteemed on-chain data platform Glassnode provided its astute analysis. Oh, how profound their words sound: “Since July, Bitcoin has continuously failed to climb back to the cost basis of those fortunate souls who bought high. A sad tale indeed.” The market, it seems, is behaving like a misbehaving child, constantly failing to live up to expectations.

The Key Support and Resistance Levels (Brace Yourselves)

The fine minds at Glassnode have employed the “Top Buyers Cost Basis Distribution” metric, a sophisticated instrument designed to measure Bitcoin’s value against the acquisition price of recent top-tier buyers. Truly, a marvel of modern mathematics. But what do these lines represent, you may ask? Well, let’s take a look:

Now, hold on tight, for the following quantiles hold the key to understanding the delicate dance between support and resistance:

  • 0.99 Quantile (Red): The most exclusive club of recent buyers, who purchased at the highest prices. A truly elite crowd – but alas, even the elite are vulnerable to loss.
  • 0.95 Quantile (Yellow): The next level of high-end buyers, the top 5%, who thought they were making a bargain but, oh, how the tides have turned!
  • 0.89 Quantile (Green): The average cost of the top 11%. How quaint.
  • 0.79 Quantile (Mint): The common folk, the 21% who make up the “general average.” They are a hopeful crowd, trying their best but often caught in the chaos.

These lines, dear reader, are not merely numbers – they are the gates to either fortune or ruin. If Bitcoin dips below one of these lines, the corresponding group of buyers faces the tragic fate of “Unrealized Loss,” and sell pressure, like a relentless tide, grows stronger.

The Momentum Shifts – A Cautionary Tale

As the months have passed, the once-unfaltering upward momentum of Bitcoin has gradually faded. Glassnode, with its sharp eye for detail, observed that the price was showing signs of weakness since July. Oh, the sorrow of watching Bitcoin’s peak on August 14, only to watch it fall to the mercy of a correction!

Though the market held on to the green line (0.89 Quantile) with desperate hands for nearly two months, the winds of fate shifted. A deeper correction arrived with the ferocity of a summer storm, puncturing the once-strong green line and leaving it as a bitter memory. Now, this support has turned to resistance – the $111,000 mark, once a sanctuary, has now become a cold and inhospitable land.

Yet, just as a moth to the flame, Bitcoin tried to surge to $110,800 on Monday, only to falter and fall below its new barrier. A tragic dance of hopes and failures, one might say. Glassnode, ever the wise oracle, foretells a bearish future, warning that this could indeed lead to a retest of the $104,000 support, a level so crucial that even the bravest of traders would quiver.

At around 09:30 UTC, Bitcoin did what it does best – dip below $104,000, if only for a brief moment, before recovering. This, dear reader, is the very essence of the market’s soul: a constant testing of boundaries, a cyclical battle between hope and despair.

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2025-11-04 13:43