As a seasoned analyst with over two decades of experience in the financial markets, I have seen my fair share of trends and patterns. However, when it comes to Bitcoin, I must admit that its unique halving cycle has always intrigued me.
According to Julio Moreno, the chief researcher at CryptoQuant, Bitcoin‘s historical price behavior during halving cycles suggests a potential significant surge in its value towards the end of this year.
In his tweet, Moreno noted that the performance of Bitcoin’s price in halving years (2024) appears strikingly alike to its performance in 2016 and 2020.
As a seasoned cryptocurrency investor, I’ve observed that Bitcoin halving events—occurring roughly every four years and cutting in half the reward for mining fresh blocks—have traditionally been preceded by significant price surges in the market.
As a crypto investor, I’ve noticed that Bitcoin’s price behavior in halving years seems strikingly similar to the patterns seen in 2016 and 2020. If we follow this trend, any potential price surge is likely to occur in the last quarter of the year.
— Julio Moreno (@jjcmoreno) August 15, 2024
In 2024, as in 2016 and 2020 – known for being ‘halving years’ when Bitcoin’s value increased substantially – the trend of its performance versus cost has been quite similar so far, according to Moreno.
On April 19, 2024, Bitcoin underwent its latest halving event, reducing the reward given to miners for mining Bitcoin by half, from 6.25 Bitcoins to 3.125 Bitcoins. Historically speaking, Moreno posits that if Bitcoin’s price is expected to rise, it should happen in Q4 (October – December).
Bitcoin’s price action
As I pen this down, Bitcoin (BTC) has shown a 0.43% increase over the last 24 hours, currently sitting at $58,423. After two successive days of decline, it’s making a comeback. In Thursday’s trading session, Bitcoin dipped almost 5%, reaching lows of $56,120, essentially erasing most of the gains made over the past week.
Significant decreases in various areas were observed following the unveiling of the July U.S. consumer price index (CPI) figures on Wednesday evening. The July CPI increased by 2.9% year-on-year, as predicted, and dipped below 3% for the first time since 2021. As a result, Bitcoin ETFs listed in the U.S. experienced net withdrawals, with Grayscale’s GBTC being significantly impacted.
In recent times, cryptocurrencies have shown a high responsiveness towards U.S. economic reports. Should macroeconomic instability continue, some analysts foresee Bitcoin’s value potentially dipping to around $55,000 temporarily, followed by a significant surge afterwards.
Julio Moreno thinks it’s possible that a market adjustment could occur soon, since the Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator is presently signaling a “bear” trend at the moment.
As the fourth quarter of 2024 draws near, there’s growing anticipation about the possibility of a market surge, given the patterns we’ve seen previously. But remember, history doesn’t always repeat itself in the financial world – past performance may not guarantee future outcomes.
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2024-08-16 17:06