Dogecoin Faces Its Toughest Q4 In Years – Can a Late Bounce Save 2025?

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Ah, Dogecoin. Once the darling of meme-coin aficionados, now sitting rather despondently near $0.17, a price that would have had its enthusiasts weeping in 2022, but today merely raises an eyebrow. As the year draws to a close, the coin, which is infamous for its year-end surges, seems to have misplaced its traditional festive cheer. Gone are the glory days when traders eagerly awaited the classic Q4 Dogecoin bounce. Instead, all we have now is a market tone so dour that it would make Scrooge McDuck look like a party planner.

The source of this sudden decline in holiday spirit lies deep within the coin’s ecosystem, where whales and holders – those once-dedicated architects of Dogecoin’s meteoric rises – are now quietly slipping away, possibly in search of more promising digital waters. Even the most die-hard HODLers are losing their faith. The meme coin’s once-unbreakable Q4 streak seems to be slipping faster than a greased pig at a country fair.

Holders and Whales Are Draining Support

Let us take a stroll down memory lane to the days when Dogecoin ended each year with a flourish, a sharp upward tick in price. In 2022, it gained a humble 14.2%, in 2023, 44.2%, and in 2024, it positively rocketed by 176.6%. So, one would imagine that 2025’s ending would be equally festive. But, dear reader, this is no ordinary year. This is the year where everything goes wrong, as our heroes, the HODLers, lose their patience and, it would seem, their wits.

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Ah, the HODL Waves. This majestic metric once showed us the patience of Dogecoin’s investors. But now? A decline, like a slow-motion train wreck.

  • Short-term holders (1-3 months) peaked at 17.47% of supply back in January but now languish at a meager 7.24%. How far the mighty have fallen.
  • Long-term holders (1-2 years) used to control 40.32% of the supply in July, but now they grip a sad 21.87%. Was there a mass exodus or a great awakening?

This diminishing loyalty means fewer coins are tucked away in digital vaults, more are circulating – which, of course, is a recipe for downward pressure.

Whale activity? Oh, it’s just as delightful as one would imagine.

  • Whales holding 10 million to 100 million Dogecoin have been on a selling spree since October 11, trimming their stash from 24.61 billion to 20.33 billion. At $0.17 per coin, that’s a loss of $730 million. A mere pittance, really.
  • The truly large whales, those hoarding more than 1 billion Dogecoin, have been trading in and out all year like a perpetually indecisive shopper at a discount store.
  • The only whales accumulating are the mid-tier ones, with 100 million to 1 billion Dogecoin, who have increased their hoard from 27.68 billion to 32.38 billion. At least someone’s buying, right?

The problem here, as you might suspect, is the sheer lack of alignment among these whale groups. Without the power of a unified front, Dogecoin’s price momentum is a bit like a car without an engine – it’s not going anywhere anytime soon.

Volume Breakdown and Derivatives Bias Add Pressure

Let’s talk about the On-Balance Volume (OBV) chart, which is essentially Dogecoin’s pulse. It’s gone flatlining. The OBV has dipped below its trend line for the first time since early 2025, a clear sign that price movements are taking place without much enthusiasm from the market. In layman’s terms: these price bounces are as convincing as a half-hearted wave at a party.

The absence of genuine volume inflows during price rebounds is a sign that any rallies may fade faster than a toddler’s interest in broccoli.

The derivative data doesn’t help much either. On Gate.io, a prominent market, the shorts outweigh the longs by a factor of five. There’s $776.75 million in short liquidation leverage versus just $151.77 million in longs. In other words, traders are betting against Dogecoin with such confidence, they might as well be placing bets on whether or not the sun will rise tomorrow.

Though this extreme imbalance is a bit of a red flag, it could also set the stage for a short squeeze. If the price rises slightly, the shorts could be forced to close their positions, creating a brief rally. But, without support from OBV, don’t hold your breath. The move would likely stall at any sign of resistance, like a dog chasing its tail.

Dogecoin Price And The Last Line of Defense Near $0.17

The weekly chart is hanging on by a thread, a thin sliver of hope that still fits inside an ascending channel that began in April 2025. If the price drops below the $0.17 mark and closes the weekly candle there, the next stop is $0.15, and that would mark the first official breakdown of Dogecoin’s bullish setup in over seven months. Farewell to dreams of a prosperous Q4.

But wait! The RSI on the same timeframe suggests there’s a chance for a rebound. Between October 6 and November 10, Dogecoin formed a higher low while the RSI formed a lower low – a classic bullish divergence. If that’s not a hopeful sign, then I don’t know what is.

If the price manages to hold above $0.17 and the RSI divergence plays out, we could see a 33% rebound toward $0.22. That would align nicely with the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement. A glorious rally, all thanks to a little thing called hope.

Looks like Bitwise is doing the 8(a) move for their spot Dogecoin ETF, which basically means they plan on going effective in 20 days barring an intervention.

– Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) November 6, 2025

If Dogecoin can hold above $0.17 and reclaim $0.22, it may yet limit the damage of Q4 and close 2025 with a mild, but somewhat hopeful, green. However, if the channel breaks, we could see a downward spiral toward $0.15 or even lower by the time the year closes. Cheers to an exciting finish!

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2025-11-12 10:24