Bitcoin’s Wild Ride: Will It Rally or Crash Into $40K?

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Oh, Bitcoin. You’re like that one friend who promises to show up on time, but instead, you show up fashionably late-again. After dipping below the $90,000 mark, it’s having a little moment of reflection. But don’t worry, Standard Chartered thinks the drama might be over soon. Or maybe not.

Meanwhile, BitMine’s Tom Lee is ready to throw all of his bets on the table: if Bitcoin manages to hit a new all-time high this year, he’ll officially declare that the whole four-year cycle thing is just a myth. Seriously, Tom? We’ve been hearing about the cycle for how long?

Bitcoin Set for Year-End Rally, According to Standard Chartered

In an email to clients, the bank’s Head of Digital Asset Research wrote that this latest dip “is just a fast, painful version of the third one in the past couple of years.” Oh, how comforting! It’s basically like a bad breakup that happens over and over, but with more numbers and fewer emotions.

Geoff Kendrick, the guy who probably spends more time looking at graphs than at his dinner plate, pointed out that multiple on-chain metrics have hit rock bottom, including MicroStrategy’s mNAV. It’s sitting at 1.0, which, in the world of Bitcoin, is practically the equivalent of ‘meh.’

“A rally into year-end is my base case,” Kendrick said, probably while sipping a coffee with the kind of confidence that comes from too many charts and too little sleep.

Now, let’s talk losses. Bitcoin’s realized loss margin is currently at -16%. That’s right, negative sixteen percent. Normally, Bitcoin starts to bounce back when this number dips below -12%. So, fingers crossed, because we all know how much fun it is to watch a crash before a potential explosion to the moon, right? 😅

Bitcoin $BTC usually rebounds when traders’ realized loss margin falls below -12%.

It’s now sitting at -16%.

– Ali (@ali_charts) November 18, 2025

And just when you think it couldn’t get crazier, enter the SuperTrend indicator! The weekly chart’s SuperTrend just flipped to sell mode, which in Bitcoin-land usually means a big move. Last time this happened, the market tanked by an average of 61%. So yeah, it’s possible we’re heading toward a $40,000 crash. Who doesn’t love a good plot twist?

“Applying that average to the current market structure points to a potential move toward $40,000,” the analyst declared, dramatically. 🧐

In short, the market is stuck in this weird limbo between panic and “Hey, maybe we’re gonna be rich?” vibes, with analysts being all dramatic and conflicted.

The Bigger Picture: Liquidity vs. Opportunity Cost

Now, before you start hitting the panic button, let’s zoom out for a second. Despite the $7 trillion increase in the global money supply since late 2024 (hello, inflation), Bitcoin has struggled to take full advantage of this liquidity flood. It’s like that one person who gets invited to the party but doesn’t know how to have fun.

“The way I see it, liquidity is being taxed,” said one analyst, probably in between checking his bank account and crying into his coffee.

With risk-free investments like government debt paying solid returns, Bitcoin and other speculative assets are looking a little… less glamorous. It’s like choosing between a fancy dinner and a microwaved frozen pizza-one’s definitely more risky, but might also taste better.

Traders have been bouncing in and out of the market, driven by both FOMO and a general lack of faith in long-term stability. It’s basically a rollercoaster, but without the safety bars. Buckle up, folks.

Some bullish voices claim Bitcoin’s price is undervalued and predict it could soar to $150,000 if the monetary expansion continues. Others are less optimistic, saying that the whole liquidity-Bitcoin price relationship is basically “out the window.”

Traders and investors, brace yourselves. With all this volatility, it’s like playing Minesweeper with your life savings. Don’t forget to do your homework (and maybe keep a stress ball nearby).

Standard Chartered’s year-end rally forecast depends on the idea that the recent sell-off has lost its steam. But, as always, there are risks-like corrections or, you know, random government regulations that could throw everything into chaos.

Keep an eye on those on-chain metrics and SuperTrend signals, because that’s where the action is. Who knows, by the end of 2025, Bitcoin could either make a triumphant return or continue its dramatic, on-again, off-again relationship with volatility. Stay tuned. 🍿

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2025-11-18 19:54