Bitcoin’s Wild Ride: Hayes’ $250K Prophecy 🌟💰🚀

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Ah, the divine Arthur Hayes, that modern-day oracle of the crypto sphere, clings to his prophecy with the tenacity of a dandy to his waistcoat-Bitcoin, he declares, shall ascend to the celestial heights of $200,000-$250,000 by the close of 2025. 🌈✨ And what of the October-November crash, you ask? Mere trifles, my dear, mere trifles! 🍷💎

In the hallowed halls of the Milk Road Show on November 26, Hayes, with a flourish of his rhetorical cane, proclaimed the recent descent to $80,000 as the cycle’s nadir. “Global dollar liquidity,” he intoned, “has turned a corner, much like a well-dressed gentleman avoiding a puddle.” 🕴️💸

“I shall stick with it,” Hayes declared, his voice dripping with the confidence of a man who has never met a prediction he didn’t like. “If I err, well, it matters not… I am long, and happiness, my dear, is a state of mind, not a price chart.” 😏📈

Hayes Proclaims $80,000 the Bottom After a Liquidity Farce

With the air of a man explaining the obvious to a particularly dim-witted child, Hayes framed the entire saga from Bitcoin’s $125,000 zenith to its $80,000 trough as a liquidity-driven reset, not the harbinger of a bear market. “A mere hiccup,” he quipped, “in the grand symphony of finance.” 🎻💼

His Bloomberg-based US dollar liquidity index, he noted, revealed a $1 trillion drain from dollar money markets between July and the present. “The Treasury, you see, has been refilling its coffers, and the Federal Reserve continues its quaint little game of quantitative tightening,” he explained, as if discussing the weather. 🌧️💰

People imagine Bitcoin dances to the tune of halving cycles.

How quaint!

It waltzes, my dear, to the rhythm of liquidity, politics, and the US business cycle. And the real fireworks? Oh, they’ve only just begun in 2026:
– QT ending
– The US Midterm election
– A booming economy and stock market for reelection purposes
– And so much more… 🎆🎉

– Quinten | 048.eth (@QuintenFrancois) November 28, 2025

According to Hayes, Bitcoin, that incorrigible rogue, ignored the liquidity drain for months, masked by the siren song of ETF inflows and Digital Asset Treasury (DAT) issuances. “But once those flows reversed,” he said with a dramatic pause, “Bitcoin tumbled to where it ought to have been, based on the dollar liquidity situation.” 🕳️💸

“It’s all rather simple, really,” he added, with a wink. “Liquidity dries up, Bitcoin falls. Liquidity returns, Bitcoin rises. It’s the financial equivalent of a seesaw, but with far more at stake.” 🎢💹

ETF “Institutional Bid” Was a Mere Basis Trade, Darling

Hayes, ever the provocateur, argued that the much-celebrated ETF bid was as misunderstood as a Wildean wit at a tea party. The largest holders of BlackRock’s IBIT ETF, he noted, are firms like Brevan Howard, Goldman Sachs, Millennium, Jane Street, and Avenue. “Not long-only Bitcoin believers, mind you,” he stressed, “but basis traders exploiting a spread. How très banal.” 🤷♂️💼

“They take the IBIT ETF, buy it, pledge it with their broker, then sell a futures contract… a tidy 7 to 10% per annum, if you must know,” he said, with a dismissive wave. “Hardly the stuff of legend.” 🤑📉

As funding rates fell in September and October, these players unwound the trade by selling ETFs and buying back futures, turning ETF flows negative. Retail investors, ever the dramatic lot, misread this as “institutions dumping Bitcoin,” Hayes said, “without understanding that institutions were merely unwinding a funding strategy. How utterly pedestrian.” 😒📉

JP MORGAN IS MOVING BITCOIN INTO THE $318 TRILLION BOND MARKET.

JP Morgan has launched a new structured note that gives investors exposure to Bitcoin through BlackRock’s spot ETF (IBIT).

This matters because it pulls Bitcoin directly into the traditional bond and fixed-income… 🏦🔗

– Bull Theory (@BullTheoryio) November 28, 2025

Hayes also highlighted the role of Digital Asset Treasury companies, which issue stock and debt to buy Bitcoin when their market NAV trades at a premium. “But when those stocks fell to par or discount,” he said, “the model, much like a poorly constructed argument, collapsed. DATs could no longer issue new securities in an accretive way. Some even had the temerity to sell Bitcoin and buy back their own shares. How gauche.” 🙄📉

“All we know is that we have essentially bottomed on the liquidity chart, and the direction in the future is higher,” he declared, with the air of a man who has just solved a particularly vexing puzzle. “That’s why I believe that the $80,000 dip on Bitcoin recently is the bottom.” 🌊⬆️

He expects the next leg of liquidity to come less from the Fed and more from the commercial banking system, pointing to early signs of renewed bank lending and political plans for a credit-fuelled industrial build-out. “The banks, you see, are awakening from their slumber, and the politicians are promising a veritable feast of credit. How delightful.” 🏛️💳

Why Bitcoin Is “Stuck” Around $90,000 For Now, Darling

Asked why Bitcoin still trades near $90,000 if the liquidity outlook is improving, Hayes pointed to uncertainty over how aggressively the new US administration will actually create credit. “Markets, you see, are like a particularly skittish debutante-they question how and when another ‘$10 trillion’ of liquidity will materialize. Promises about bank lending, industrial policy, and a new Fed chair remain political talk until they turn into concrete programs and flows.” 👗💸

“Once we actually start to see things happen, markets will price a bigger forward on where this dollar liquidity situation is, and risk assets like Bitcoin will accelerate their rise in price,” Hayes said, with a flourish. “It’s all rather inevitable, really.” 🚀📈

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2025-11-29 05:03