As a seasoned researcher with over two decades of experience in financial markets and emerging technologies, I find myself intrigued by the latest prediction from Bernstein. The notion that Bitcoin could hit new all-time highs if Donald Trump wins the 2024 US Presidential election is an interesting take, to say the least.
Private wealth management brokerage Bernstein has predicted Bitcoin (BTC) price action based on the results of the highly anticipated US Presidential elections in November 2024.
Bitcoin Could Hit New ATH If Trump Wins
The Bernstein report posits that Bitcoin might be referred to as a “Trump trade” because if Donald Trump wins again in the US elections, it could potentially drive Bitcoin to a record-breaking peak (All-Time High or ATH). More specifically, Bitcoin’s price could reach up to $90,000 by the end of 2024, assuming the Republican candidate emerges victorious.
If Kamala Harris wins as the Vice President and Democratic candidate, it might cause Bitcoin (BTC) to break its current support level at $50,000, potentially leading to a drop in price and testing the $30,000 to $40,000 price range.
As an analyst, I find myself pondering over potential impacts of the upcoming election on Bitcoin’s price. A Trump victory may signal a resumption of Bitcoin’s bullish market trend, given his pro-business stance and inclination towards digital currencies. However, if Harris wins, her policies might pose challenges for Bitcoin, potentially leading to a decline in its price. This prediction comes from Bernstein analysts Gautam Chhugani, Sanskar Chindalia, and Mahika Sapra, as they outlined in their client note on September 9, 2024.
Analysts elaborated on why they made differing forecasts, explaining that while the digital asset sector attracts people from across the political spectrum, it’s found more favor among supporters of Donald Trump. In simpler terms, the note suggests that the digital assets industry has garnered more acceptance among Trump’s followers than among those who support other political views.
As a crypto investor, I’ve noticed that the industry leaders have become increasingly receptive towards the Harris campaign, holding out hope for a more favorable policy. However, it seems likely that the gap between potential political outcomes will be substantial.
As an analyst, I’ve noticed that recent events in the cryptocurrency sector seem to align with my earlier expectations. For example, by July 2024, former President Trump expressed his backing for the crypto industry, stating he intended to replace the Chair of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Gary Gensler. To put it simply, Gensler is often perceived as a strict regulator when it comes to cryptocurrencies within the digital currency community.
In August 2024, Trump announced his plans to transform the United States into a global leader in cryptocurrency. He criticized the Biden administration’s persistent scrutiny of cryptocurrency-related businesses within the country, alleging that the current government is intentionally hindering the growth and advancement of the cryptocurrency industry.
A Lot To Do For The Democrats
Although Trump seems to enjoy positive sentiment within the cryptocurrency community, there’s still much work ahead for the Democrats if they aim to chip away at Trump’s substantial support base in this industry. Nevertheless, the Democrats haven’t lost hope just yet, as Trump has undergone a dramatic shift in his perspective on digital assets, moving from being skeptical about Bitcoin to becoming an ardent supporter.
Last month, news surfaced suggesting that Kamala Harris could alter the existing Democratic administration’s position on cryptocurrencies. More recently, it was disclosed that Harris’ political campaign has started receiving cryptocurrency donations through the Coinbase Commerce platform.
Currently, a single Bitcoin is being exchanged for approximately $55,272, representing a 2.2% increase over the past day. It remains to be seen if this cryptocurrency will reach new all-time highs or dip down towards $30,000 in the upcoming months.
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2024-09-10 06:42