As a seasoned researcher who has witnessed the crypto market’s rollercoaster ride for years, I have to admit that the current state of Ethereum is concerning. The price struggles and the factors contributing to its lag are not new to me, but the sheer magnitude of these issues seems to be escalating.
Despite most cryptocurrencies experiencing losses, Ethereum‘s price has faced significant difficulties. The ETH price fell by approximately 40% from May to August, despite an Ethereum ETF launching in June. Moreover, Metalpha’s $90 million ETH sale has added to the downward pressure on its price. This persistent weakness hints at potential deeper problems within Ethereum. It raises questions about whether investors should be worried about the future of Ethereum’s network and its asset.
Reasons Why Ethereum Price is Lagging
As a researcher delving into the intricacies of the digital currency landscape, I’ve observed that Ethereum, being the most expansive blockchain network in terms of Total Value Locked (TVL) and ecosystem protocols, has achieved remarkable success. Yet, despite this significant triumph, the price of Ethereum seems reluctant to escalate. The market capitalization of Ethereum currently stands at $281 billion, while USD Tether (USDT) has surged to an impressive $118 billion. It appears only a matter of time before USDT overtakes ETH as the second-largest cryptocurrency asset. However, I ponder why Ethereum is faltering? Let me shed light on a few potential reasons:
- Sluggish on-chain metrics
- Layer 2 solutions are economically extractive and hold Ethereum back.
- Competitions from other blockchains.
- Spot Ethereum ETF outflows.
- Macroeconomic factors
Sluggish On-chain Metrics
The price of ETH has gradually moved away from the spotlight as network metrics suggest a downbeat scenario for both the network and coin value. As per YCharts, the daily active addresses over the past 30 days stands at approximately 430,250, representing a 7% decline compared to 90 days ago. It’s worth noting that Ethereum peaked at 799,580 Daily Active Addresses (DAA) in May 2021, during the peak of the 2021 bull market.
As an analyst, I’ve noticed a pattern indicating a potential decrease in the number of individuals engaging with the Ethereum blockchain. This trend seems to imply a possible reduction in Ethereum transaction activity.
Layer 2 Solutions Leeching on Ethereum
Most Ethereum Layer 2 (L2) solutions are operating exceptionally effectively, but it’s regrettable that this success often comes at the cost of the main chain. As explained by Justin Bons, founder and CIO of Cyber Capital, L2s are essentially centralized networks funded by venture capital that draw transaction fees away from Ethereum L1.
ETH Is Down Bad, While Layer 2s Are Ripping. Are L2s Parasitic to Ethereum?
Justin Bons and Ryan Berckmans engage in a lively discussion:
— Laura Shin (@laurashin) September 10, 2024
Moreover, Vitalik Buterin, a key figure in the founding of Ethereum, is urging Layer 2 solutions (L2s) to become even more decentralized. He has indicated that he may cease referring to L2s that do not achieve an acceptable level of decentralization.
Competitions From Other Blockchains
Beyond other challenges, the struggle for dominance as the premier Decentralized Finance (DeFi) network has been intensely competitive, with Solana emerging as a strong contender. In fact, Solana and Near Blockchain have surpassed Ethereum in certain areas based purely on numerical superiority.
For instance, data from The Block shows Solana DAA surged to 5.9 million, while Near Blockchain registered 2.9 million DAA. Ethereum pails in comparison with only 475,000 DAA.
Spot Ethereum ETF Outflows
It’s important for Ethereum ETF trading in the U.S. to meet expectations. According to Soso Value, the ETF experienced a total net outflow of $20.14 million on September 12, adding up to a cumulative total net outflow of approximately $582.74 million.
As a researcher, I’ve observed an interesting trend: U.S.-listed Bitcoin ETFs have experienced more success following their approval on January 10, a fact that seems to have positively impacted Bitcoin’s price. On the flip side, similar to the net negative flows, we can see Ethereum’s price mirroring this pattern in its decline.
Macroeconomic Factors
As a crypto investor, I’ve noticed that broader economic factors can significantly impact the market. For instance, the potential interest rate cuts by the U.S Federal Reserve on September 18 and the recent slump in NVIDIA price, fueling concerns about a tech stock bubble, could be dampening investor sentiment. These factors play a crucial role in shaping the environment for crypto assets to flourish.
Can Ethereum Price Catch Up?
In summary, a complex picture emerges when considering the challenges facing Ethereum’s price, as these difficulties are hindering its adoption and expansion within a competitive and rapidly evolving market. To bring about change, Ethereum must initially address the technical and internal issues associated with its L2 chains. Furthermore, a significant market rally could potentially turn things around for Ethereum, driving its prices upward.
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2024-09-13 11:34