As a seasoned crypto investor with over five years of experience in this dynamic market, I have learned to navigate its volatility and unpredictability. The recent 3.5% plunge in Ethereum during the U.S. session is not unusual in this rollercoaster ride we call cryptocurrency trading. However, the historical data for ETH suggests a bullish trend in Q4, with an average return of 20.8%. This tantalizing prospect could propel Ethereum beyond the $3,000 psychological level if history repeats itself.
During the U.S. trading hours on Tuesday, the price of Ethereum (ETH) fell by approximately 3.5%, now standing at around $2500. This decline in ETH follows a broader pullback within the cryptocurrency market. Nevertheless, there’s hope for an improved Ethereum outlook in the fourth quarter of this year. October seems particularly promising for ETH to make its mark.
Is it Ethereum’s Time to Shine?
Indeed, the historical price trends of Ethereum suggest a strong likelihood of a rising trend during the fourth quarter. Based on data from Coinglass, Ethereum’s typical return in Q4 is about 20.8%. Should history follow a similar pattern, Ethereum may experience a significant surge that could potentially propel it above the $3,000 psychological price point.
Furthermore, data from Santiment indicates that Ethereum (ETH) whales, who own between 100,000 and 1 million coins, have been steadily increasing their holdings since August, amassing a total of 20.8 million ETH in the process.
As a researcher delving into the world of Ether, I’ve observed a notable increase in the amount held by top addresses. These substantial holders now control approximately 44.17% of the total supply. This growing concentration among large holders suggests their conviction in the asset’s future prospects. Historically, such on-chain indicators have tended to align with significant market bottoms and potential reversals, which could imply a positive outlook for the asset’s future performance.
Why Ethereum Has Failed to Rally So far?
As a researcher, I’ve noticed that the current Ethereum (ETH) price is still 48% below its all-time high of $4,891. This is significantly different from Bitcoin, which is trading less than 15% away from its all-time high of $73,750. The disparity in performance during the Bitcoin rally might be due to the increased interest in the respective Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) associated with each cryptocurrency.
At the Messari Mainnet conference held in New York, Robert Mitchnick, who leads digital assets at BlackRock, expressed that BlackRock’s Ethereum-based Exchange-Traded Fund (ETHA) had not lived up to expectations, implying a preference for the “Digital Gold” narrative associated with Bitcoin.
Previously, a strong link between Bitcoin and Ethereum had limited Ethereum’s independent price rise. Now, that same connection could enhance Ethereum’s value, leading to an even more significant surge in its price.
ETH Price Forecast:
a) ETH Price Longterm outlook forecasts $10k
Looking ahead, Ethereum could realistically reach prices around $10,000. This prediction is based on its current healthy recovery and significant accumulation by large investors (whales), which are likely to fuel further growth. Regarding the seven-month correction, the Fibonacci extension tool suggests a first surge to approximately $7,310, followed by another rise towards $10,540.
b) Daily Ethereum price chart hints at $3.5k before 2024
Over the past four days, the price of ETH has decreased from $2700 to $2500, representing a 7.56% drop. This downward trend comes during a broader market retreat. The increased supply at the current level, reinforced by the slope of the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), suggests another potential reversal. This leaves a strong “sell on bounce” mentality among traders.
If the Ethereum price continues to drop due to heavy selling, it may fall approximately 18% to hit the notable $2000 mark. This significant level is reinforced by a Fibonacci retracement level at 61.8% and an unbroken ascending trendline that has been in place since June 2022, suggesting a potentially busy zone for traders (Area of Interest or AOI).
The bullish momentum recuperated at this support could boost the next recovery leap to $3000.
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2024-10-01 22:12