As a seasoned analyst with years of experience in the volatile world of cryptocurrencies, I find myself intrigued by the recent trend observed in Bitcoin’s short-term holders. The surge in profit-taking volume, as high as 14 times the loss-taking one, paints an interesting picture.
Recent on-chain data indicates that short-term Bitcoin holders are currently realizing 14 times more profits than losses.
Bitcoin Has Plunged As Short-Term Holders Have Been Realizing Gains
As per the latest weekly report from Glassnode, it appears that short-term investors are once again cashing in their Bitcoin gains. A key on-chain metric to consider here is the “Realized Profit/Loss Ratio.” This term signifies the comparison between the amount of profit and loss being transacted by Bitcoin holders at this time.
If the figure for this metric surpasses 1, it signifies that the typical user on the network is transferring their coins with an overall gain. Conversely, when the indicator falls below this level, it implies that more sellers are offloading their coins at a net loss in the market.
When discussing the current subject, it’s important to focus on the Realized Profit/Loss Ratio for a specific group of Bitcoin users: those known as short-term holders (STHs). Short-term holders are individuals who have recently bought their Bitcoins within the last 155 days.
Below is the chart shared by the analytics firm in the report, which shows the trend in the Bitcoin Realized Profit/Loss Ratio for the STHs over the last few years.
According to the graph, the Realized Profit/Loss for STH investors in Bitcoin dipped below zero around the start of last month because the value of the cryptocurrency fell sharply. Essentially, this suggests that these investors were forced to sell off their Bitcoin at a loss due to the sudden price drop.
As the value of the asset recovers from its lowest point, the indicator has switched directions and is now showing positive signs. Notably, the current levels are significantly high, with the amount of profit-taking among Strategic Token Holders (STHs) being approximately 14 times greater than the amount of loss-taking.
It appears from the chart that when these investors are making significant profits from Bitcoin, it often coincides with market highs or local tops. Given their recent activity in profit-taking, it’s possible that the latest drop in Bitcoin’s price is due to them realizing their gains.
Conversely, if Strong Trend Holders (STHs) give up, this trend might indicate approaching price floors. A reversal in the STH’s Realized Profit/Loss indicator could potentially serve as a warning that the crypto currency might be nearing its lowest point.
In the same analysis, Glassnode discusses the current state of Bitcoin long-term users (LTHs), who constitute a significant portion of the Bitcoin community. Notably, there’s been a significant increase in the proportion of Bitcoin supply that these users are holding at a loss.
This recent surge might be due to the change in the dominant group of buyers, who are currently facing a loss. However, even with 47.4% of Long-Term Holders (LTH) being underwater, the overall unrealized loss carried by this group remains insignificant.
BTC Price
Currently as I type, Bitcoin is hovering near $60,400, experiencing a decline of over 5% over the past week.
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2024-10-04 12:11