In the dim glow of Washington’s gilded palaces, President Donald Trump, whose thoughts are as fluid as a godless river, is poised to present a name for the next chair of the Federal Reserve. The mayor of this ill-fated city of ambition, former Fed governor Kevin Warsh, has emerged from the shadows as the popular choice among traders, a choice that may ripple through the foreboding waters of bonds and the glittering, yet perilous, realm of Bitcoin.
Warsh sat with Trump in the White House’s marble chambers last Thursday. News agencies – the merciless sharks of the press – report that the President announced his intent to reveal the decision on Friday. Trump, ever the baffling prophet, alluded to a candidate whose time might have come “a few years ago,” turning the room into a stage for a possible theatrical farce.
Warsh and the Fates of Bitcoin and Crypto
The market’s quickest recalibration has occurred not on the plains of Treasuries but in prediction markets – the panopticon of modern finance. Polymarket’s contract, like a trembling heart after confession, shows Warsh at 93%, with stacked heaps of $302 million drifting in the digital ether, a spectacle both terrifying and vaguely amusing.

This will‑do little to settle the unsettling rumors that the administration is lining up Warsh as a nominee, as a Bloomberg report suggests, and that macro traders are tightening their nets toward a single, monstrous outcome.
Macro figure Alex Krüger, a man of short contracts and short patience, quipped on X: “Warsh has advocated a structural overhaul of the Federal Reserve and a ‘new Treasury‑Fed Accord.’ He believes an AI‑driven productivity boom will strip the inflationary fever, allowing rates to drop. He also argues the Fed’s balance sheet must shrink, cutting the big soup for Wall Street.” His words hang like night‑star echoes in a drunkard’s hall.
Joseph Wang, a former trader haunted by his own ghost‑shaped spreadsheets, offered a blunt warning: “A Warsh Fed trades lower asset prices for a lower rate path… This is a step to reverse Bernanke’s wealth effect.” He added a chilling shorthand: Warsh “will get you a lot of cuts, but you might not like how we [get] there.”
Warsh’s hawkish reputation – an angel with a torch and a spiteful mentor – complicates any tidy “dovish” label. Anna Wong, chief economist, brought up a 2009 remark about inflation, pointing out that someone who loves a hard hand will not be the gentle friend Trump seeks.

James E. Thorne, market strategist, posted on X: “Kevin Warsh remains the strongest choice because he uniquely blends credibility with a willingness to reset policy. He is hawkish on inflation and the balance sheet, but he can cut rates wisely.” Yet Krüger confesses “his track record is not the best,” though he still sees a unique credence in this former hawk’s aggressive cuts.
Warsh, Bitcoin, and the Sadism of Market Discipline
For Bitcoin, which sits in the belly of a giant economy that spoils its crumbs, one rarely appreciated angle is Warsh’s calming words. In a Hoover Institution interview, he said: “Bitcoin does not make me nervous. I see it as an important asset that can help inform policymakers.” The claim sounds like child‑talk amid a graveyard of burning souls.
Kevin Wash on Bitcoin, the white paper and its role alongside the dollar:
“It can often be a good policeman for policy.”
– Natalie Brunell (@natbrunell) January 30, 2026
Warsh also portrayed Bitcoin as a kind of feedback mechanism for central bankers: “It can often be a very good policeman for policy,” he said, widening the lens to differentiate “real innovators” from “imitators” and “incompetents” in the sprawling crypto ecosystem.
At the time of press, cryptos floated at $82,695, an absurdly cruel number that would drain any sane soul to the brink of despair.

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2026-01-30 13:11