Hedera HBAR: The Crypto Darling That’s Gaining Momentum – But Beware the Sneaky Risks!

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In an unexpected twist reminiscent of a plot from a whimsical novel, Hedera’s HBAR pirouettes gracefully ahead of its crypto counterparts. While Bitcoin and Ethereum shuffle upward by a mere 2%, our darling HBAR waltzes in with a flamboyant 10% leap over the past week, frolicking around the $0.096 mark as we speak.

This exuberant rally has sparked dreams of breakout euphoria, but alas! The momentum, volume, and derivatives data reveal a lurking specter: risk is escalating quicker than anyone’s confidence can keep up.

The Falling Wedge: A Hopeful Breakout or a Tricky Trap?

Since the twilight of 2025, HBAR has been ensconced within a falling wedge pattern, a place where dreams and nightmares often collide.

As February unfurled its charms, HBAR rebounded from the depths of despair, inching toward the upper trendline at $0.098. This elusive boundary has capped the price like a stubborn lid on a jam jar, serving as fierce resistance time and time again.

Should HBAR surmount this barrier, the predicted trajectory hints at an upside leap exceeding 50%. However, like a violin losing its tune, the momentum appears to wane. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) – that fickle fella measuring buying and selling vigor – reveals the paradox: while RSI rises, signaling potential vigor, the actual momentum seems to be fading into the ether.

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What we have now is a hidden bearish divergence-a cryptic phenomenon where prices fail to affirm improving momentum. It’s like buying a ticket to a concert only to find out it’s a band you don’t like. This doesn’t scream “trend reversal” but rather suggests that buyers are getting a touch weary near resistance.

The threat of divergence dissipates if HBAR manages to tickle $0.098, thereby invalidating the lower-high theory. Fingers crossed!

Money Flow and Derivatives: The Rising Risks Lurk in the Shadows

As if to add to the melodrama, money and leverage indicators reinforce this cautionary tale. Enter the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), a metric tracking whether substantial capital is flowing into or out of our star asset. When CMF soars above zero, the institutional whales are buying. Dive below zero, and they vanish like mist.

From New Year’s Eve to the grim February 11, HBAR’s CMF rose while the price itself took a nosedive. A classic case of the rebound supporting the conundrum! Oh, irony, you splendid beast! Yet, CMF has broken free from its descending trendline-still, it lingers below the zero line, teasing us.

This indicates that while selling pressure has relaxed, robust accumulation remains a distant dream. The rally still relies on the nimble feet of short-term traders rather than the lumbering giants of big wallets. And let’s not forget the derivatives data, which adds another layer of spice to this already zesty dish. Open interest-the total value of active futures contracts-has surged from $26.96 million to nearly $29.38 million, a tantalizing 9% spike in a single day!

This surge coincided with HBAR flirting with resistance while funding rates turned buoyantly positive, shifting from around -0.018 to +0.05 in just 24 hours. Long positions are springing up like daisies in spring. Yet, there’s a quirky divergence between price and leverage.

On February 8, HBAR reached a local peak, only to falter on February 12 with a lower high-an ominous sign of dwindling price strength. Meanwhile, open interest ascended to dizzying heights during this same timeframe. More leverage is slinking into the market, even as momentum takes a bow. This peculiar cocktail often precedes unfortunate pullbacks. When leverage burgeons near resistance while momentum evaporates, even the tiniest hiccup can trigger a cascade of liquidations.

In layman’s terms, risk appetites are growing while conviction remains as flimsy as a house of cards.

The Crucial Levels: Will HBAR Break Out or Bow Down?

As optimism clashes with tepid participation, the price levels now take center stage. The primary upside catalyst hovers around $0.098.

This level resonates with wedge resistance and recent swing highs. A clean break and a firm hold above it would vanquish the bearish divergence and decrease liquidation risks. If such a miracle occurs, HBAR could set its sights on $0.107 first, followed by the illustrious $0.145 zone, potentially fulfilling the wedge target.

That would proclaim to the world that genuine demand has returned. Until that moment arrives, however, the rally remains on shaky ground. On the flip side, $0.090 is the first vital support; it has stood tall through recent turbulence. A slip below this level would likely unleash a tidal wave of long liquidations.

Should we plunge beneath $0.090, the next significant support lurks around $0.076. A descent to this realm would wipe away roughly 20% from current standings and signal the grand failure of the breakout attempt.

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2026-02-12 19:12