As a seasoned analyst with over two decades of market experience under my belt, I must admit that the current state of Bitcoin is both fascinating and intriguing. The parallels drawn between October 2024 and 2023 are not lost on me, and they do indeed echo the wisdom of history.
Based on Bitcoin‘s price holding steady above the significant barrier of $65,000, experts anticipate that the seven-month period of sideways movement might soon conclude. There are various factors suggesting that the recent surge over the past week could be a prelude signaling the resumption of the Bitcoin bull market that started in 2023.
In the CoinGape piece we’re delving into, let’s take a look at the reasons why some analysts think Bitcoin might be gearing up for another rally (or bull market).
3 Reasons Why BTC Price Will Kickstart Bull Run in October: Experts
One of the key reasons why BTC price could kickstart a bull run is the similarity between October 2024 and 2023 moves. Let’s explore the eerie similarities that hint at a massive rally for Bitcoin in October.
Bitcoin’s Similar Price Action
Vettle Lund, senior analyst at K33 Research, posted to X about how this logic applies to the rest of the crypto market. Referencing the CME premium and stale funding rates, Lunde added that the “current [crypto] market structure closely resembles the market structure exactly one year ago.”
The key difference, he adds, is the ETH basis, which follows BTC, and that the futures traders are more aggressive, leading to a sharp move in perpetuals’ open interest.
Halving & Elections Impact on BTC
For the past 12 years, Bitcoin has undergone four instances of halving and elections. As Intuito, a well-known crypto analyst, demonstrates, following a halving, the price of Bitcoin typically slows down. However, after an election, this digital asset often surges dramatically, initiating what is commonly referred to as a bull run.
If Donald Trump maintains his lead in the U.S. presidential election on November 5, the cryptocurrency market might experience significant upward momentum on that same date.
Intuito similarly emphasizes that past bull market starts often followed when old all-time highs (ATH) were transformed into support levels. At present, as of October 16, Bitcoin is just 8.52% short of reaching its previous ATH.
Bitcoin’s Seasonality Hints It is Bull Season
Currently, even though Bitcoin’s volatility has resurfaced, the calculated leverage ratio stays relatively low at approximately 32%. In earlier times, a surge above 55% in this ratio would typically indicate high leverage, which can result in massive liquidations and consecutive, sharp declines of more than ten percent.
As reported by analyst Axel Adler Jr., who focuses on on-chain data, the combined leverage volume on the leading three exchanges is currently at 32%. If this figure surpasses 55%, it may lead to a chain reaction of liquidations.
In summary, the long-term perspective on Bitcoin’s price is generally optimistic. However, on a shorter time scale, there was some uncertainty, but that trend is now leaning more toward optimism. Let’s delve into how recent fluctuations in Bitcoin’s price may have contributed to this change.
Bitcoin Price Analysis Hints Shifting Allegiances Favoring Buyers
The day-to-day Bitcoin graph indicates an increasing trend of lower lows followed by higher highs, which suggests a change in market dynamics that currently favors buyers. As a result, forecasts for the Bitcoin price are pointing towards reaching $70,000, an important psychological threshold.
Furthermore, Bitcoin is striving to break through the downward trend line linking the lower peaks it has formed since reaching its peak of $73,805. If it manages to do so, Bitcoin could potentially revisit $70,000, and then challenge the $63,000 support level. A recovery from $62K might push Bitcoin past its current all-time high ($73,805) and establish a new one.
If Bitcoin’s price doesn’t manage to maintain its support at around $65,000, this might indicate a potential reversal. Under such circumstances, Bitcoin might trend towards the lower boundary of its current consolidation phase.
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2024-10-16 16:10