XRP’s Dance with the Dollar: Will CPI Kick It or Kill It?

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There it sits, XRP, perched like a sparrow on a telegraph wire, its feathers ruffled by the winds of uncertainty, hovering near $1.35. The markets, those fickle beasts, are holding their breath, their eyes glued to the January U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, due to drop like a hammer later today. Will it be a gentle tap or a crushing blow? Only the numbers know, and they ain’t talking.

  • The markets, ever the pessimists, expect January’s CPI to show inflation as stubborn as a mule, with core prices sticking around like a bad habit. If they’re right, the Federal Reserve might just hold off on those rate cuts, leaving crypto assets out in the cold, shivering like a dog in a winter storm.
  • XRP, poor thing, is trading below its 50-day SMA, which sits pretty at $1.84. The trend? Still bearish, like a bear in a honey shop, and it ain’t leaving anytime soon.
  • Support levels are at $1.30 and $1.20, while resistance stands firm at $1.40 and the $1.80-$1.85 region. The CPI data could be the spark that lights the fire, or the rain that douses it. Either way, it’s gonna be a show.

Economists, those so-called wise men, are betting on headline inflation ticking up just a smidge, month-over-month. Annual inflation? They’re pegging it at around 2.5%. Core CPI, the one that ignores the whims of food and energy, is expected to show prices as sticky as a summer day in the valley. No relief in sight, it seems.

If the CPI comes in hotter than a jalapeño, the Federal Reserve might just slam the brakes on those rate cuts. The U.S. dollar would flex its muscles, and risk assets, including our friend XRP, would feel the squeeze. But if the numbers come in softer than a kitten’s purr, well, that could spark a rally in crypto markets, a brief moment of sunshine in a cloudy sky.

XRP’s Price Prediction and the Levels That Matter

XRP, at the moment, is trading around $1.35, down a modest 0.6% on the day, according to the daily price chart. It’s like watching a man tiptoe through a minefield, hoping not to step on the wrong spot.

The chart tells a tale of woe, a clear downtrend since early January. XRP tried to hold its ground above the $2.20-$2.30 region, but it slipped like a man on a banana peel, leaving a trail of lower highs and lower lows. The price is trading well below the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), which sits at $1.84, a sign that the bears are still in charge.

The recent sell-off toward the $1.20 zone was sharp, like a knife through butter, followed by a brief rebound that fizzled out quicker than a firecracker. Now, the candles are compressing near $1.35, a sign of indecision, as if the market is waiting for the CPI to make up its mind.

The Chaikin Money Flow indicator is hovering around -0.12, stuck in negative territory like a car in the mud. It’s a sign of capital outflows and weak buying pressure, a bearish signal if ever there was one.

For XRP, immediate support lies near $1.30, with the recent swing low at $1.20. If it breaks below $1.20, it could be a free fall toward the psychological $1.00 level, a place no one wants to visit.

On the upside, initial resistance is at $1.40, with stronger resistance at the 50-day SMA around $1.84. A hotter CPI reading could push XRP below $1.30, retesting $1.20. But if the inflation print comes in softer than expected, it might just spark a rebound toward $1.40, and maybe even $1.60 in the short term. Either way, it’s gonna be a wild ride, like a bucking bronco at a rodeo.

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2026-02-13 10:02