Insiders Cash in $1.2 Million on Polymarket as U.S. Strikes Iran – A Masterclass in Betting!

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Ah, the joys of the financial markets! A world where luck and cunning reign supreme, and a well-timed wager can make you a millionaire. Such is the case for six masterful gamblers on the Polymarket, who turned a casual bet into a staggering $1.2 million by predicting the U.S. would strike Iran on February 28. Quite the prophetic bunch, don’t you think?

What to know:

  • Six insider accounts on Polymarket earned roughly $1.2 million by correctly predicting that the U.S. would strike Iran on February 28.
  • These strategic bombshells led to a dip in bitcoin’s price, while oil futures on Hyperliquid surged. Who could have seen that coming?
  • The CFTC has, in the past, warned about the potential for insider trading violations. Meanwhile, rival prediction market Kalshi has been cracking down, banning and fining users for similar offenses.

So, here we are, with six lucky (or should I say, well-informed?) Polymarket accounts pocketing $1.2 million after correctly betting that the U.S. would strike Iran on February 28. And how did they know? Well, according to blockchain detectives at Bubblemaps, these accounts had funds flowing in within 24 hours of the attack, and-surprise!-they bought “Yes” shares in the “U.S. strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?” market just hours before the explosions rocked Tehran. How convenient!

The U.S. President, in an epic moment of dramatic flair, made a televised address announcing what he called “major combat operations,” targeting Iran’s missile, naval, and nuclear infrastructure. Predictably, Bitcoin took a nosedive, while oil futures on Hyperliquid ascended like a phoenix.

But let’s not forget the true stars of this show! One account bought more than 560,000 “Yes” shares at a mere 10.8 cents each, and voila! A cool $560,000 when the market hit $1. Another lucky gambler snatched nearly 150,000 shares at 20 cents, turning their bet into a six-figure jackpot. If only we could all be so fortunate!

Oh, and did I mention that all six profiles were created in February? How very mysterious. Surely, nothing untoward here, right?

And the bets didn’t stop there! On February 28, trading volume in this contract hit a staggering $90 million, a mere drop in the bucket compared to the $529 million wagered across related strike-date markets since December. Talk about a thrilling game of high-stakes prediction!

To make things even more intriguing, Bubblemaps released a visual map showing that these six wallets were all funded through similar paths. Coincidence? Perhaps. Or maybe just savvy investment strategies.

Meanwhile, regulators are sweating bullets over how to police this new frontier of prediction markets. Kalshi, a rival platform, recently suspended and fined two users for insider trading, including a visual effects editor for MrBeast’s “Beast Games” who apparently bet on knowledge of show outcomes. A little too much insider knowledge, perhaps?

Kalshi, which operates under the watchful eye of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, has investigated about 200 cases and has more than a dozen active probes. The CFTC, in all its wisdom, issued an advisory warning that insider trading on event contracts could very well violate U.S. law. So, let’s all try to keep our bets above board, shall we?

In case you thought this was the end of the story, think again. Polymarket traders recently engaged in a little insider trading of their own, betting on-wait for it-insider trading itself. ZachXBT, the blockchain sleuth, teased an investigation into Axiom, a crypto platform where employees allegedly used non-public information to trade. Naturally, this led to the creation of a Polymarket contract, with some users placing bets on which company would be named. And who knew the answer? Well, Lookonchain was there, identifying 12 wallets that bet heavily on Axiom before the reveal. How delightfully transparent!

As they say, in the world of prediction markets, it’s all fun and games until someone blows the whistle. But until then, happy betting!

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2026-02-28 17:47