As a seasoned researcher with over two decades of experience in the financial markets, I have witnessed numerous bull and bear cycles, and the current Bitcoin phenomenon is undoubtedly one of the most intriguing events in my career. The latest surge to an all-time high of $89,940 on Binance, driven by the anticipation surrounding Donald Trump’s presidency and his potential Bitcoin policies, has certainly piqued my interest.
On Tuesday, the price of a single Bitcoin hit an unprecedented peak of $89,940 on Binance, driven by enthusiasm in the market following Donald Trump’s election victory as U.S. President. This spike occurred as Trump has suggested setting up a national Bitcoin reserve and contemplated employing Bitcoin to offset the U.S. national debt.
Bitcoin Price Targets $102,000
In the current optimistic market conditions, Bitcoin analyst Willy Woo (@woonomic) shared his predictions about Bitcoin’s future actions through X. He pinpointed crucial price thresholds, suggesting that once it surpasses between $88,000 and $91,000, the next objective could be $102,000.
Woo stated through X that when Bitcoin reaches new record highs, there’s nothing in its past to act as resistance for trading. Consequently, the price may experience uninhibited exploration, leading to significant price fluctuations or volatility.
He highlighted two methods for identifying new resistance levels in such scenarios: Fibonacci bands, which use natural mathematical sequences, and real liquidation levels of market positions. He noted that the $88,000 to $91,000 range was the first target—now achieved—and suggested that consolidation should occur there.
According to Woo’s remarks, our initial goal was between $88,000 and $91,000, and we successfully reached that target. Now, a period of stabilization is expected. This consolidation phase occurs at significant Fibonacci levels and liquidation points where many short positions have been closed out. Essentially, the forced buying from short sellers has ended.
He mentioned that “$102k represents the upcoming key Fibonacci retracement point, taking into account the high from the previous cycle and the low from this one.” Essentially, this is our projected significant level of potential price reversal based on Fibonacci ratios. As we observe market activity, let’s keep an eye on where major sell-offs might occur. For now, that seems to be our next primary objective.
Woo also touched on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) gap—a price gap in Bitcoin futures that often appears over weekends or trading halts. A user named Bill O’Rights (@ajdavault) asked about its potential impact: “What about the CME gap?”
In response to the question, Woo indicated that if the CME gap unfolds as expected, it would be a part of the consolidation stage. He pointed out that the desired price level to achieve before entering a cooling-off period was around $88,000 to $91,000. It is worth mentioning that a fresh CME gap has emerged over the weekend, ranging from roughly $78,000 to about $80,700. Since mid-March 2024, Bitcoin has filled every CME gap it has formed; however, historically not all gaps are filled.
A different user highlighted the possibility of Bitcoin encountering resistance due to technical analysis, citing an evaluation by Sven Henrich, the founder and lead market strategist at NorthmanTrader. Henrich noted that Bitcoin is “nearing a significant trend line resistance during a notable negative weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) discrepancy.” He added that a comparable divergence was present when Bitcoin reached its peak in November 2021, suggesting a potential similarity with the current market conditions.
Woo conceded Henrich’s proficiency but underscored the significance of foundational aspects over conventional technical analysis. He emphasized, “It’s crucial to consider the fundamental dynamics of demand and supply based on real investor behavior, growing global liquidity, and market positioning. These elements are entirely distinct, almost diametrically opposed from what traditional technical analysis suggests.
When questioned about the use of Fibonacci levels—which are a form of technical analysis—Woo agreed but pointed out that their effectiveness is enhanced when combined with fundamental market conditions. “Not dissing it,” he said regarding technical analysis. “Just gets better taking into account the fundamental environment.”
At press time, Bitcoin traded at $87,492.
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2024-11-13 23:11