Bitcoin’s Grim Repetition: The Third Drop Is Starting Now

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Bitcoin, that stubborn coin, hovers about $67,044 on April 3, caged within a descending parallel channel on the four-hour chart-an iron cage that has kept every swing since March 17 in its grip.

The channel has already dealt two sharp blows along a familiar road. The first fell 11.49 percent, the second 9.72 percent. A third leg now rises from the early April high, about 5 percent along its road. A hidden bearish divergence on the RSI hints that the correction may press on, while on-chain data reveals short-term participants have not yet reached the bowstring of capitulation required to strike a floor.

Two Drops Followed a Path, and The Third Is Underway

Since March 17, Bitcoin has moved within a descending parallel channel on the four-hour chart. The structure repeats its cruel spear: every top prints a lower high, every bottom drags a lower low, only to hasten into a harsher plunge.

The first drop began at the March 17 crest and measured 11.49 percent. The second, born from the next lower high, fell 9.72 percent. Both followed a similar contour, briefly rallying within their gilded cage before snapping downward.

The third leg takes shape now. From early April’s local peak, BTC has corrected about 5 percent. If it treads the same path as its predecessors, the swing high may lose another 9-11 percent, and then the fall will fall again.

The Relative Strength Index, that wheezing momentum gauge, argues that the third leg still has room to run. Between March 22 and April 2, price forged a lower high while RSI carved a higher high on the four-hour chart-a hidden bearish divergence. Such a sign often appears during corrections and loudly proclaims that the downtrend will persevere rather than reverse.

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The divergence will not be overturned unless Bitcoin reclaims $67,454 on the four-hour frame. With this correction already stamped by the divergence, the question remains: have on-chain participants exhausted themselves, or do they still owe a few losses to the ledger?

Short-Term Participants Have Not Hit Bottom Yet

Short-term holder STH-NUPL, that Glassnode whisperer that tells whether buyers dance in profit or loss, now sits at -0.22. It places the ephemeral crowd in capitulation, for the average recent buyer is buried under a 22 percent unrealized loss.

Yet -0.22 is no grave capitulation by 2026 standards. The metric plunged to -0.47 on February 5 during the year’s fiercest sell-off, nearly twice this reading. The present level resembles early November 2025, a time that did not seal a durable floor. The participants still have room to endure more pain before hitting the kind of extreme historically signaling exhaustion.

The URPD, which highlights key supply clusters from Glassnode, reveals exactly where that pain could materialize. The single largest near-term supply cluster sits at $65,636, where approximately 524,815 BTC representing 2.62% of the total supply last changed hands. A second cluster follows at $64,373 with 0.68% of supply.

These clusters sit just 2-3% below the current price. If the third channel leg pushes Bitcoin price into this zone, the participants concentrated there face a decision. With STH-NUPL already in capitulation but far from its 2026 low, the probability that they sell rather than hold remains elevated. The price levels now determine whether the channel delivers them to that test.

Bitcoin Price and the 3% Gap to the Biggest Cluster

The four-hour chart with Fibonacci levels frames every critical Bitcoin price level from here. BTC currently trades at $67,044, sitting between the 0.236 Fib at $67,607 and the 0.382 Fib at $66,580.

The first meaningful support lies at $65,750, the 0.5 Fib. Below that, $64,920 at the 0.618 level offers key support. These two support zones align closely with the URPD clusters identified in the previous section. Losing $64,920 would mean the largest nearby supply concentration has been breached. If those participants choose to sell rather than absorb the loss, the path opens toward $63,737 and $62,232.

A drop to $62,232 would represent roughly 10% from the early April swing high. That’s consistent with the magnitude of the channel’s two completed drops. Below $62,232, $57,883 becomes the next structural target.

For the bearish thesis to fail, Bitcoin price needs a 4-hour close above $67,607, which would nullify the hidden bearish divergence. A close above $69,268, the level that has capped every attempt since early April, would confirm that the channel’s repeating pattern is breaking.

The channel has followed a repeating path twice. Whether the third leg matches the first two depends on whether the $65,636 supply cluster holds or folds. With STH-NUPL not yet at its 2026 low and hidden bearish divergence still active, the structure favors one more completed leg before exhaustion.

A 4-hour close below $64,920 separates a controlled pullback from a cluster-driven sell-off toward $62,232. However, reclaiming $67,607 would be the first step toward breaking the channel’s rhythm.

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2026-04-03 12:26