Solana Enters the Phase That Preceded Two Major Crashes

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SOL hovers at $79-$81 below the 50-day SMA for the third time since October 2025. History says this calm before a storm could send SOL toward $52.

Ah, Solana, the stubborn creature of the crypto world, once again finds itself between $79 and $81. It does this so often now it could almost be considered its natural habitat. The 50-day simple moving average hovers at $85.79, mocking it from above, like a parent telling a child, “You can’t reach that, no matter how hard you try.” And what does Solana do? It persists in staying just beneath it, as if expecting a different result this time.

But history doesn’t care about your dreams, @alicharts on X reminds us that this exact setup has been repeated three times since October 2025. A pattern so familiar, it could be called tradition at this point. The structure is locked in-tight, like a straitjacket for your investment hopes.

The Three-Step Trap Playing Out Again

And so it begins again. The three-step tango of doom, ever so predictable. Step one: Solana rallies above the 50-day SMA, giving everyone a false sense of hope. Step two: it promptly loses that level as support, like an ungrateful child tearing down the posters you carefully hung for them. But fear not, there’s no immediate sell-off. Oh no, the trap is yet to be sprung.

What follows is pure chaos, wrapped in the guise of stability: sideways drift. The “Consolidation Phase,” as @alicharts calls it, which is really just a fancy term for a waiting room before the real pain starts. This phase looks like stabilization but has historically been the calm before the storm, not after it.

Let’s take a stroll down memory lane, shall we? In November 2025, Solana broke below the 50-day SMA, entered a multi-week consolidation, and then, as if on cue, the market collapsed to a new local bottom. January 2026, rinse and repeat. Solana briefly reclaimed the 50-day SMA, then lost it, drifted sideways, and – surprise! – another major sell-off.

$86 Is the Number to Watch

Oh, and let’s not forget mid-March 2026, when SOL peaked near $97, just to mock us all by trading above the 50-day SMA for a brief moment before crashing back down. The 50-day SMA, that stubborn line, has given way once again.

Now, as @alicharts so kindly pointed out on X, Solana once again finds itself trapped in the sideways zone, between $79 and $81, while the 50-day SMA looms at $85.79. And if you thought that was a coincidence, think again. The Solana price structure has a way of breaking key levels with terrifying speed once the daily closes confirm the move. It’s like watching a wrecking ball slowly build momentum.

The magic number here is $86. A failure to reclaim that level quickly, according to the sage analysis shared by @alicharts, could set us up for a downward spiral toward $52. That’s not a minor pullback, folks. We’re talking about a solid 35% drop from the current prices. A veritable bloodbath.

And for the third time since October 2025, the same pattern has set up. The first two times? Bearishly resolved. This time, however, don’t expect the result to be any different. History repeats, whether you like it or not.

Sideways Is Not Safe

Ah, the sideways movement. It’s so easy to mistake it for indecision or recovery, isn’t it? Well, not so fast. According to @alicharts, this sideways drift is the coiling phase of a snake, not the resolution. And we all know what happens when a snake strikes.

Solana needs to reclaim $86 fast, or it will continue its cycle of misery. Without that clean break, the technical picture is eerily similar to what happened in November and January. And both times, patience only rewarded the sellers.

Now we sit in the $79 to $81 range, the familiar ground of broken dreams. It’s been here before, and both times it left this range with a swift move lower.

Disclaimer: This article is based on technical analysis and publicly available market data. It does not constitute financial or investment advice.

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2026-04-09 14:31