Bitcoin Surges After Core CPI Rose a Meager 0.2% in March-The News You Didn’t Know You Needed!

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Markets

What to know:

  • Core CPI surprised to the downside in March, rising just 0.2% versus the expected 0.3%-Oh, how shocking!
  • Headline CPI rose by a modest 0.9%, thanks to the irresistible surge in oil prices brought to you by the ever-charming Iran war.
  • Bitcoin, like a hero in a tale of destiny, rose modestly in the minutes following the news-because why not?

As expected, U.S. inflation had its usual show-stopping performance last month, driven largely by rising energy costs-those ever-reliable culprits, courtesy of Middle Eastern conflict. However, in a delightful twist, Core CPI decided to go easy on us, showing surprising restraint.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose a dazzling 0.9% in March, according to a Friday report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Economists, with their infinite wisdom, had forecasted a 0.9% rise, and February’s increase had been a humble 0.3%.

On a year-over-year basis, CPI was higher by 3.3%, matching predictions-because, of course, nothing surprises us anymore-and February’s 2.4% just seemed like a distant memory.

Meanwhile, Core CPI, which excludes the pesky distractions of food and energy costs, chose the path of moderation, rising by a mere 0.2% in March versus forecasts of 0.3%-truly an act of self-restraint. Year-over-year Core CPI rose 2.6%, a shade lower than the expected 2.7%, and February’s 2.5% seemed like an afterthought.

Bitcoin, which had been contentedly bouncing around the $72,000 level in the hours before the news broke, jumped to $72,400 in the fleeting moments following the report-because who could resist such a delicious bit of data?

U.S. stock index futures, ever the optimists, posted modest gains, with the Nasdaq 100 up by a measly 0.3%. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield stood still at 4.29%, as though bored with the proceedings.

As oil prices surged in response to the Iran situation, the market mood flipped from expecting Fed rate cuts to now betting on rate hikes-or, more likely, on absolutely no change in U.S. central bank policy, which is always the safest bet.

Before this morning’s data, there was a 99% chance the Fed would stand idle at its late-April meeting, and a 97% chance that they’d continue their spectacular inaction at the mid-June meeting, according to CME FedWatch. Truly, the suspense is overwhelming.

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2026-04-10 15:48