Bitcoin To Repeat Post-Election December Surge? History Points To A Bullish Year-End Target

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As a seasoned researcher with over two decades of experience in financial markets, I’ve seen my fair share of market trends and cycles. However, the current state of Bitcoin leaves me feeling a sense of deja vu, not unlike the prelude to its previous bull runs. The historical data, coupled with the current market indicators, paints an optimistic picture for Bitcoin’s performance in December.

Bitcoin hasn’t managed to surpass the predicted $100,000 mark in the recent week, instead following a downward trend. Nevertheless, the current market signals hint that this significant psychological barrier might be breached shortly. More specifically, previous patterns combined with current market signs indicate that Bitcoin could be on the verge of an impressive year-end surge.

Historical Post-Election December Rallies: A Bullish Trend

As an analyst, I’ve observed an intriguing pattern with Bitcoin: it tends to show significant growth during the month of December following US presidential elections in November. For instance, in 2016 and 2020, Bitcoin experienced impressive gains of 30.8% and 46.92%, respectively, after the polls closed. However, it’s worth noting that the current ecosystem surrounding Bitcoin seems to be more favorable than during those two periods.

Currently, there exist Spot Bitcoin ETFs, allowing institutional investors to invest in Bitcoin, a feature that was missing during the past two U.S. presidential elections. The influx of institutional investment has proven effective in buying more Bitcoins, particularly during times when both short-term and long-term holders are selling for profit.

So far, November has been quite favorable for Bitcoin’s price, as it closed higher by approximately 38% compared to its opening value. Attention now shifts towards December, eagerly waiting to observe how the Bitcoin price behaves throughout the upcoming month.

The Fear & Greed Index, which gauges market sentiment, is indicating extreme enthusiasm or greed among investors right now. Similar levels of optimism were observed during the previous Bitcoin price surge, when it skyrocketed from $15,000 to $57,000 within a few short weeks, as pointed out by crypto expert Ali Martinez on social media site X.

According to past patterns, if the Bitcoin price follows its usual trajectory, it could surge to approximately $125,000 or even $140,000 by the end of December. However, it might also land somewhere around these figures depending on various market factors.

On-Chain Data Indicates A Massive Bitcoin Supply Crunch

In the last three days, there has been a surge of Bitcoin (55,000 units worth around $5.34 billion) being withdrawn from exchanges. This large-scale removal usually indicates a shortage in supply as investors transfer their coins to personal wallets. This trend suggests that many Bitcoin holders are optimistic about its long-term price growth.

Currently, Bitcoin’s price is at approximately $96,454, fluctuating between $95,833 and $97,201 over the past day. Given its impressive December performance, positive market sentiment, and dwindling supply, Bitcoin looks poised to potentially reach prices between $125,000 and $140,000 by year’s end.

Initially, it’s expected that resistance will be encountered around the $100,000 mark. A breach above this point could trigger fear of missing out (FOMO) among investors. Conversely, for Bitcoin’s bullish theories not to be negated, it needs to maintain its position above $90,000. Fortunately, the average mining cost is currently set at $90,524, and during past bull markets, Bitcoin’s price has never dipped below this level.

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2024-12-01 20:41