Bitcoin Price Set to Break $100K As US Dollar Weakens Ahead of US NFP

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Following a rather quiet stretch over the weekend, Bitcoin (BTC) is currently approaching the significant $100,000 threshold after 11 days. Given the weakening US dollar and forecasted sharp correction, it’s possible that BTC will surpass this critical level. This prediction might force short-term sellers and pessimists to exit the market abruptly.

Bitcoin Knocks on $100K Level As US Dollar Drops 1.52% 

Starting from its peak of 109.533 on December 2, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has decreased by 1.52% and is now trading approximately at 107.943. This decrease has positioned it within a short-term demand zone that spans from 107.911 to 108.267. If this level breaks with strong momentum, it might indicate that a further drop is imminent. Normally, the DXY and Bitcoin exhibit an inverse relationship – when the DXY increases, Bitcoin decreases and vice versa. This means that if the U.S. Federal Reserve raises interest rates, the DXY tends to strengthen, causing a risk-off environment where investors sell off their high-risk assets in favor of the DXY.

If the US Dollar Index weakens and falls below its current support level, it might decrease from around 0.73% to 1.03%. This potential decline in the US Dollar Index could lead to an increase in Bitcoin’s price, propelling it to surpass the $100,000 threshold rapidly.

Nonfarm Payrolls on January 10 Could Reset BTC’s Directional Bias

In December, the Federal Reserve’s announcement of less frequent interest rate cuts in 2025 led to a plunge in both the U.S. stock and cryptocurrency markets. The upcoming Nonfarm Payrolls report on January 10 will provide insights into potential future actions by the Fed.

Here are three scenarios to watch ahead of the NFP release.

Strong NFP Report

  • A higher-than-anticipated NFP report could lead to a decline in Bitcoin and US equities as investors become more risk-averse due to the potential for higher interest rates.
  • From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin price in 2025 could drop to the $90,000-$95,000 range, while US equities could experience a moderate decline.

Weak NFP Report

  • A weak jobs data or NFP report could lead to a rally in Bitcoin and US equities as investors become more optimistic about the potential for interest rate cuts.
  • BTC could surge to the $110,000-$115,000 range, while US equities could experience a significant rally.

Mixed NFP Report

  • A mixed NFP report could lead to a range-bound market for Bitcoin and US equities, with minimal impact on prices.
  • BTC price could trade within the $95,000-$110,000 range, while US equities could experience a relatively calm trading session.

Important economic factors for investors to monitor also encompass the U.S. unemployment rate, average hourly wages, and adjustments in previously announced Non-Farm Payroll figures.

Bitcoin Technical Analysis: What’s Next After BTC Price Overcomes $100K?

In terms of its technological value, by the year 2025, it’s expected that the price of Bitcoin will fluctuate between approximately $100,000 and $93,300. Over a period from late November 2024 to early January 2025, about 70% of all transactions were conducted within this price range.

There are three scenarios in which the current Bitcoin price action could unfold in January 2025. 

  1. A bullish catalyst coupled with a spike in buying pressure, volume or consolidation under $100K could indicate an impending breakout. In this bullish case, BTC price could shoot 3% to 6% and tag $102.7K to $105.3K resistance levels.
  2. A lack of buying pressure and bearish macroeconomic events could lead to rejection at $100K. Such a development could lead to a rangebound movement between $100K and $93.3K.
  3. The third scenario includes a rejection of the $100K level followed by a dip into the CME gap, extending from $94.4K to $94.9K. This would serve as a buying opportunity that leads to a retest and breakout of $100K. 

Bitcoin Price Levels to Watch in January 2025

If Bitcoin is to see a positive trend, it must surpass the $100,000 mark. Once achieved, the resistance zones around $102,700 to $105,300 come into play. Overcoming these hurdles would then set the sights of BTC bulls on a new all-time high of approximately $108,421.8.

For dip buying opportunities, the CME gap that stretches from $94.4K to $94.9K will be great.

If Bitcoin falls below the support level it established on December 30 ($91,400), this would be considered a bearish trend because it creates a new lower low. This suggests that the market is moving in a downward direction and may lead to a correction. In this situation, potential support levels for the Bitcoin price can be found at $90,000 and $81,100.

Conclusion

With Bitcoin’s price approaching the significant $100,000 milestone, investors should keep a close eye on the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report due out on January 10. This economic update will offer insights into potential decisions by the US Federal Reserve regarding their policies in 2025.

If the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report shows weakness, it might trigger an increase in Bitcoin’s value, possibly surpassing the $100,000 mark and reaching heights of $110,000 to $115,000. Conversely, a strong NFP report could cause Bitcoin’s price to decrease, potentially dipping down to the range of $90,000 to $95,000.

As a researcher analyzing Bitcoin’s price movements, I find that from a technical perspective, the value of Bitcoin is currently consolidating within the range of $100K to $93.3K. Absent any bearish events or significant increases in selling pressure, it appears that Bitcoin could potentially exceed $100K and climb higher towards the levels of $102.7K to $105.3K.

To make well-considered investments in Bitcoin or U.S. stocks, it’s crucial for investors to closely monitor significant economic happenings such as the U.S. Unemployment Rate, hourly wage growth, and updates regarding past Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) figures.

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2025-01-06 17:49