19000 BTC Options to Expire Ahead Of Key US Non-Farm Payrolls Data

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19,000 Bitcoin options are about to end before today’s release of the US Nonfarm Payrolls data, and the price of Bitcoin has been fluctuating significantly. It dropped to around $91,380 earlier today but has since rebounded above $94,000. The decrease in Bitcoin funding rate and trading volume suggests that there could be more price instability in the near future. Furthermore, approximately 141,000 Ether options will expire alongside Bitcoin’s options today.

19000 BTC Options Expiry Amid Bitcoin Price Drop

19,000 Bitcoin options worth approximately $1.81 billion expired this week on the Deribit exchange. The expiry had a put-call ratio of 0.65, suggesting that there were more calls (bullish bets) than puts (bearish bets), indicating that traders remain optimistic about Bitcoin’s price, even as it has been declining. The maximum pain point was set at $97,000.

The event transpired amidst a significant downturn in the overall market, primarily due to a slump in U.S. stocks and adverse economic conditions. For a brief moment, the price of Bitcoin fell below $91,000, reaching its lowest point in almost a month. This drop coincides with a dramatic increase in short-term volatility for Bitcoin options, suggesting market anxiety and uncertainty.

Preparing for potential challenges in the cryptocurrency market, significant events like the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data on this coming Friday, the US CPI data release scheduled for January 15th, and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting later this month are looming. Certain financial analysts on Wall Street are hopeful about Bitcoin’s price rebound coinciding with an increase in the global M2 money supply.

Bitcoin Short-Term Prediction After BTC Options Expiry

Simultaneously with Bitcoin options data, short-term indicators are flashing worries about the strength of the world’s leading cryptocurrency asset class. A crucial measure, Hot Capital (which signifies capital regained over the past week), has dramatically decreased by 66.7%, falling from its peak of $96.2 billion on December 12 to $32.0 billion currently.

In simpler terms, the daily trading volume for Bitcoin has recently decreased to match its yearly average, indicating a significant reduction in investment since it reached an all-time high of $108K in December. Additionally, the 7-day moving average of the funding rate and rates from the top three perpetual markets are currently below the neutral level of 0.01%, suggesting that market participants are not generally taking long or short positions on Bitcoin at this time.

From my research perspective, the consistent absence of intense buying interest remains evident, despite the momentary surge to $102,000. At the time of this writing, Bitcoin is showing a 1.28% increase, trading at approximately $94,517, with a market capitalization of around $1.87 trillion.

141,000 ETH Options Expiring Today

As a researcher, I’m sharing some insights from today’s Ethereum options market. A staggering 141,000 ETH options have expired, equating to approximately $460 million in theoretical value. The contracts closed with a Put/Call ratio of 0.48, suggesting a generally bullish outlook among traders and market participants, as this ratio indicates a higher demand for Call options compared to Put options. Furthermore, the Max Pain point for today’s expiration was identified at $3,450, underscoring this significant price level for both traders and market makers as it represents the price that would cause maximum loss for the sellers of these options if reached.

Together with Bitcoin, Ethereum’s price has been subjected to significant selling pressure and is currently seeking support around $3,300. As per the latest analysis by Glassnode, the pattern of Ethereum futures open interest (OI) appears to mirror that of Bitcoin.

As a crypto investor, I’ve noticed an interesting pattern with ETH futures OI: It reached its peak mid-December, then took a dip. But here’s the intriguing part – the short-term trendline seems to be bouncing back now, suggesting that traders are starting to reinvest after an initial pullback. Moreover, the increased Ethereum whale activity could potentially bolster the price further in the coming days.

US Nonfarm Payrolls Data Release Today

On Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is set to release the eagerly anticipated US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) figures for December 2024. This employment report will play a pivotal role in determining the future course of the U.S. Dollar and providing clues about potential interest rate adjustments by the Fed.

Economists anticipate that the December Nonfarm Payrolls report will show a growth of approximately 160,000 jobs within the U.S. economy. Moreover, it is expected that the unemployment rate will hold steady at 4.2%. Given persistent inflation, the Federal Reserve has suggested they would proceed cautiously with any interest rate reductions throughout this year. In their analysis of the December job market scenario, analysts from TD Securities have stated:

We anticipate that payroll growth will slow down and align with normal patterns in December, after the sudden fluctuations in October and November caused by unusual events. The unemployment rate seems to have stayed steady at 4.2%, contrary to our prediction for a significant increase in the employment numbers from the household survey. Additionally, we predict that wage growth will return to its usual rate of 0.1% monthly growth, after experiencing a series of high increases.

As a crypto investor, I’ve noticed that the Dollar Index (DXY) persistently stays above the 109 mark, with U.S. 10-year Treasury yields maintaining an average of around 4.7%. This suggests that the Federal Reserve’s stance towards monetary policy has become more aggressive, or “hawkish.

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2025-01-10 12:58