You Won’t Believe What CPI Did in March! 😲

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What to know:

  • The U.S. CPI has been rather unpretentious, rising less than those ever-so-optimistic forecasts—a trifle, really! 😏
  • Even bitcoin, that irreverent digital dandy, managed a modest ascent.
  • As for the Fed’s next soirée in May, the mood suggests a rather dignified repose.

In a display of fiscal farce worthy of a Regency comedy, U.S. inflation took a small bow by declining at the headline level last month, while the core rate crept forward with the languid charm of an idle aristocrat. One might even muse whether the esteemed Federal Reserve shall rekindle its notorious habit of rate-cutting come May.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) dipped a scant 0.1% in March—a performance that left the economists, who had fancied a 0.1% bump after February’s 0.2% flourish, rather underwhelmed. On an annual note, the headline CPI’s modest rise of 2.4% fell short of both the prophecies of 2.6% and February’s more spirited 2.8%.

In a bid to escape the tumultuous theatre of food and energy prices, the Core CPI limped upward by a mere 0.1%, gently defying forecasters’ predictions of a 0.3% rise and giving February’s 0.2% a run for its money. Year-over-year, it sauntered to an unassuming 2.8% increase, rather less raucous than the expected 3% or even February’s 3.1%.

Meanwhile, bitcoin, ever the digital maverick, advanced modestly to above $82,000 in a brief interlude of enthusiasm—hardly the spectacle one might imagine. Following yesterday’s historic jump, U.S. stock futures took a minor tumble, with the Nasdaq 100 down 2.7% and the S&P 500 slipping by 2.1%, a veritable tragicomedy on the trading floor. 😜

Thursday’s CPI report, naturally assembled from data preceding President Trump’s raucous “Liberation Day” tariff fireworks, stirred up a market panic of delightful absurdity—a panic only partly soothed by a 90-day intermission.

Prior to this tariff-induced intermezzo, traders were gaily anticipating a rate cut at the Fed’s May meeting. Alas, the odds were trimmed down to just 17%, leaving June to play host to more promising speculations—a 75% chance of a 25 basis point cut, or perhaps even more.

With a wry smirk, one now turns to Friday’s Producer Price Index (PPI) report, which promises to further sharpen the intrigue surrounding the Fed’s May deliberations. Prepare your monocles, dear reader, for the economic farce continues! 🤷‍♂️

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2025-04-10 15:51