Bitcoin’s Wild Week: Tariffs, Trends, and Tweets

So, Bitcoin (BTC) is just sitting there, minding its own business, while the US trade war is like that annoying neighbor who won’t stop yelling. 🤷‍♂️

BTC price is trying to break through a resistance line like it’s trying to escape a bad date. Spoiler: it’s not working.
Tariffs are the hot topic this week. Risk assets are sweating bullets, waiting for the next surprise headline. 🎢
Bitcoin ETFs lost almost $800 million in a week. Meanwhile, Strategy is out here buying the dip like it’s Black Friday. 🛒
The US dollar is weak, which might actually be good news for Bitcoin. Silver linings, right? 🌤️
Global M2 money supply is at an all-time high. Will Bitcoin follow history? Stay tuned. 🍿

With traders on edge about tariffs, BTC price analysis is zooming out like it’s trying to avoid eye contact. BTC/USD closed last week up 6.7%, according to CryptoMoon Markets Pro and TradingView. 📈

Next up: breaking through a downward-sloping trend line that’s been capping the upside for months. Good luck with that. 🚀

$BTC – #Bitcoin: I’m watching this chart closely. We might be ready.

— Crypto Caesar (@CryptoCaesarTA) April 12, 2025

“Rejected at key resistance, following the trendline perfectly,” popular trader Bitbull wrote on X. 🐂

“If the breakdown continues, eyes on the $70K-$72K support zone for a possible bounce.”

Fellow trader Rekt Capital is also watching the trend line. “Bitcoin has Daily Closed above the Downtrend. Thus, breakout confirmation is underway,” he told X followers. 📊

“However BTC has previously Daily Closed above the Downtrend but failed its retest (a few of the red circles). Retest needs to be successful and it is in progress.”

Popular trader AK47 on X posted separate upside and downside BTC price targets. “$BTC might push to $88K—but don’t get too comfy,” he cautioned. 🎯

“Could be a fakeout, grabbing liquidity before dipping to $81K for that inverse head & shoulders setup. If that plays out, $95K–$100K isn’t far.”

A quieter week for US macroeconomic data leaves initial jobless claims as the highlight while the trade war continues to dominate. With China in focus, risk assets and crypto face flash volatility. 🌍

The weekend saw snap relief as US President Donald Trump announced a pause on tariffs for key tech products. Bitcoin climbed to eleven-day highs above $86,000. 🚀

Subsequent indications that the measures would be temporary then put renewed pressure on stocks’ futures, while BTC/USD retreated to circle $84,000 at the time of writing. 📉

“We think the ‘tariff exemptions’ announced this weekend were originally intended to be temporary,” trading resource The Kobeissi Letter wrote. 📜

“The goal was to bring treasury yields back down before resuming the trade war.”

Kobeissi suggested that markets had originally considered the move as a signal that the trade war might end completely, only to be disappointed a day later. “Bonds will likely still rally along with stocks, but uncertainty has only grown. The bond market is king,” it added. 👑

Continuing, trading firm Mosaic Asset agreed that bonds may have been crucial in altering policy trajectory last week. “It’s the volatility in other areas of the markets like currencies and Treasury bonds that might have forced a quick pivot on trade and tariff policy,” it summarized. 📈

“The uncertainty around tariffs has become a binary and unpredictable event for the stock market. Signs of tensions fuel further downside, while an easing of tensions sends stocks sharply in the other direction.”

A sign of just how turbulent last week came in the form of net flows from the US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). In one of the worst weeks ever for the ETF products since their debut in early 2024, total outflows passed $750 million. 💸

For network economist Timothy Peterson, however, there is little to worry about. “Last week, US Bitcoin ETFs had their 5th worst week ever (in terms of outflows). Over $700 million. Yet it barely registers as a blip on the chart,” he told X followers. 📉

“That’s how big Bitcoin has become. That’s how sticky these investments are.”

Among major investors seeking to “buy the dip,” meanwhile, is business intelligence firm Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy), whose co-founder Michael Saylor hinted that it was upping its BTC exposure this weekend. “No Tariffs on Orange Dots,” he wrote in an X post alongside a chart of Strategy’s acquisitions. 🍊

However, whether Bitcoin will emerge as an attractive proposition for the institutional investor cohort while trade war uncertainty continues is dubious. A survey by Bank of America in late March showed that respondents overwhelmingly favored gold as a volatility hedge, with 58% choosing it. 🏦

“This compares to just 9% for 30-year Treasury Bonds and 3% for Bitcoin,” Kobeissi wrote while reporting on the findings. “Throw in the US deficit spending crisis and gold quickly becomes the only global safe haven asset.”

The US dollar may yet provide some light at the end of the tunnel for wary risk-asset traders this week. The trade war has taken its toll on the greenback, and when measured against major trading partner currencies, its weakness is plain to see. 💵

The US dollar index (DXY) fell to three-year lows last week and, at the time of writing, is challenging those lows once more. 📉

Markets selling dollar even lower Monday. DXY fell through 100 and also the 2023 low over last few hours, now at lowest in 3 years

— David Ingles (@DavidInglesTV) April 14, 2025

While far from constant, Bitcoin’s relationship with dollar strength tends to show that gains occur after major DXY losses — albeit with a delay of several months. To that end, popular analytics account Bitcoindata21 is eyeing a repeat of events from 2017, resulting in BTC/USD all-time highs at the end of the year. 📈

Another chart uploaded to X at the weekend showed the relationship between DXY, Bitcoin and the S&P 500, providing ideal conditions for a long-term bottom in the latter. The last time such a signal came was around one month before the pit of the Bitcoin bear market in late 2022. 📊

“I got 99 problems but the DXY aint 1,” Bitcoindata21 summarized. 🎤

On longer timeframes, an equally promising trend is playing out for Bitcoin bulls. The global M2 money supply, with which Bitcoin price action is positively correlated, is seeking to break out beyond all-time highs. 🌍

“Global M2 has remained at an ATH for 3 days in a row,” popular analyst Colin Talks Crypto noted in a dedicated X post on the phenomenon this weekend. 📈

“This is a fantastic sign for what it signals will be coming into risk assets in ~108 days.”

The post refers to a chain reaction in which sharp moves in global M2 spark copycat behavior for Bitcoin once the latency period expires. Before that, however, there may be a final opportunity to “buy the dip.” 📉

“Global M2 (with a 108-day offset) doesn’t show a blast-off for another ~2 1/2 weeks, and actually shows a slow bleed into next week until around April 16th or 17th,” Colin Talks Crypto acknowledged. 📅

Earlier this month, the analyst predicted a “big M2 influx” incoming, with a corresponding BTC price rebound beginning in May. 🚀

2025-04-14 12:10

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