As a seasoned analyst with over two decades of experience in the financial markets, I have learned to read between the lines and spot trends that others might miss. In the current crypto market cycle, the dominance of Bitcoin has been unquestionable, but the signs pointing towards an altcoin season are undeniably present.
To date, Bitcoin has predominantly driven the trends in the cryptocurrency market, while a select group of alternative coins have displayed modest fluctuations. While some experts anticipate an imminent surge for altcoins, others caution about the potential for a correction within this sector.
It’s evident that the ETH/BTC ratio has consistently decreased over a period of more than 1,000 days. Yet, there’s a growing sentiment that other cryptocurrencies could potentially surpass Bitcoin, as suggested by trends in the altcoin market cap and Bitcoin dominance graphs.
Is Q4 going to bring about an altcoin season, or will this breakout further be delayed?
Altcoin Season Yet? 75% Confirming Indicator Explained
During an altcoin boom, savvy investors find exceptional chances to gain substantial profits by investing in rapidly increasing small-market-cap tokens. Astute traders keep a close eye for early indications of such surges and quickly seize the opportunity to invest in potentially lucrative cryptocurrencies for significant returns.
At present, numerous analysts are suggesting that we’re entering a new bullish phase, as Bitcoin recovers and most cryptocurrency tokens exhibit strength. However, it’s possible that corrections for altcoins could follow soon. Over the years, market trends have consistently shown that when Bitcoin’s dominance starts to decrease, it often indicates that altcoins are about to surge. For instance, Bitcoin’s price dipped by more than 3% on Monday due to panic selling by investors, who were likely unnerved by upcoming economic events in the U.S. and escalating tensions in the Middle East. Conversely, historically, top altcoins have demonstrated an upward trend during Q4 and have shown stronger resistance.
Towards the end of September, Bitcoin’s dominance was at 57.39%, showing a slight decrease compared to the previous week. A drop in dominance is often a significant indicator, but experienced investors usually seek additional confirmation. At this point, analysis suggests that Bitcoin could potentially surge during Q4, mainly due to increased institutional investments following a generally bullish September.
A key indicator to watch is when over three-quarters (75%) of the top 50 cryptocurrencies consistently surpass Bitcoin’s performance for a span of 90 days. Historically, such a trend has often signaled significant profits as Bitcoin investors tend to allocate some of their holdings into other digital currencies during market shifts.
Experts Warn of Altcoins Correction Despite Recent Surge
Recently, Brian Quinlivan, the Marketing Director, along with CEO Maksim Balashevich, shared insights on recent advancements in the cryptocurrency sector, according to the latest report from Santiment.
As per Quinlivan’s insights, following a relatively sluggish summer period, the market has experienced a significant recovery since the low point on September 5th. Over the past three weeks, various coins have successively rallied, with meme coins currently spearheading this rally.
He did, however, temper this optimism by saying that this was perhaps a sign that a near-term Altcoins correction was due.
Additionally, he noted a shift in investor strategies, as many Bitcoin owners started favoring riskier and more volatile investments. This trend is evident in the declining number of Bitcoin investors and the rising values of alternative assets such as Ethereum, Tether, and Cardano.
Quinlivan stated that this observation might imply investors are seeking higher yields in altcoins, which could be a warning sign of market overheating. Typically, such a shift towards riskier assets indicates escalating speculation, suggesting that a market correction may be imminent as investors move away from Bitcoin and towards more volatile alternatives.
Altcoin Explosive Growth in Q4, But Correction Coming
According to Kyle Chasse, CEO of PAID, he holds a comparable perspective. He emphasized that the overall value of altcoins (excluding Ethereum) usually reaches a fresh peak approximately every 287 days following Bitcoin’s halving event.
He sees Q4 as the starting point for a major reversal, with the altcoin market cap currently 45% below its peak.
Chasse anticipates that it will surpass a value of $1 trillion before the year ends, which is likely to cause multiple other cryptocurrencies to increase in value between 5 and 10 times.
Just as Quinlivan does, he predicts a corrective phase for altcoins reminiscent of 2020’s cycle, following which new record highs will be reached. After weaker investors exit the market, other coins may experience exponential growth, potentially yielding substantial returns for those who persevere.
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2024-09-30 20:47