An Amusing View of the FOMC and Market Sorrows

My dear sirs and madams, gather ’round as we contemplate the grand spectacle at 2:00 p.m. ET today-an event most anticipated, where the FOMC is expected to graciously reduce interest rates by a trifling 25 basis points, with a probability of 90% that this wish will be granted. The illustrious Fed Chair Jerome Powell shall then give his discourse at 2:30 p.m., where any mention of QE or liquidity support could persuade the markets to dance with joy-or despair. Should he hint at further cuts, risk assets might join in a merry rally; a neutral tone, however, could cause a brief symphony of volatility. Heaven forefend, if inflationary fears take hold, beware the market’s melancholy descent-oh, the drama! 🎭

All eyes are now fixed upon Japan, dear reader, as the humble nation prepares for the impending 19 December meeting of the Bank of Japan. With yields soaring to ascendancy, multitudes of carry trades flourish like imported roses in January. Any unforeseen policy shifts could ignite a whirlwind of volatility across cross-asset markets, leaving traders grasping at straws amidst the calm exterior. Bitcoin and its ilk remain perched on the precipice, yearning for some movement-may the odds be ever in their favor! 🌸

Oh, how eagerly the market gazes upon tonight’s occasion-an event most pivotal! While a predictable rate cut is expected, all eyes are fixed upon Jerome Powell, whose words may serve as a master’s stroke or a discordant note in the symphony of finance. His discourse will nudge the risk appetite, with the future of policies hanging delicately in the balance. A cautious utterance might keep the markets in a sluggish state-if only they knew what each phrase truly signified! 🧐

Our dear Bitcoin remains affixed around the noble sum of $92,000, maintaining an air of stoic composure amid the chaos. The recent outflows have slightly eased, and ETF flows have intertwined with cautious traders-ever so cautious, indeed. Despite a semblance of relief, the sentiment remains restrained, as though waiting for the next grand event. Wait and watch, for Bitcoin is not one to be hurried-patience, darlings! 💰

Imagine, if you will, a twenty percent-no, wait-a ten percent surge in Bitcoin, which could effortlessly eradicate $8 billion in short positions overnight! Today’s FOMC meeting looms like a thundercloud, and traders are watching feverishly for any whisper of liquidity support from Mr. Powell. Should such signals emerge, risk assets like Bitcoin might leap joyfully-perhaps even causing some unfortunate shorts to suffer a swift demise. Hold on tight, dear friends, for volatility shall reign supreme! ⚡

The market whispers of potential purchases of MBS or T-bills-an act most gentle, yet full of consequence. The horizon of Q1-Q2 2026 glimmers, suggesting stability unless Mr. Powell should suddenly resign, and Mr. Hasset takes the stage-oh, what a spectacle that would be! Meanwhile, any surprise lack of rate cuts or hawkish remarks might cause a swift market swoon, prompting traders to very aggressively favor Ethereum-’tis a curious time for speculation, indeed! 🔮

All manner of minds are scrutinizing the FOMC dot plot, desperately seeking hints of future cuts-are they many, or few? Even with today’s modest 25 basis points, the subtlety of signals-like a whispered secret-could sway the markets immensely. Ah, the suspense of anticipation! The wise traders watch closely, waiting for a sign from Powell-will it be a gentle easing or a stern pause? Only time shall reveal! 🕵️‍♂️

Market sentiment hinges on this very moment-will the statement be ‘dull as dishwater’ or ‘a thunderclap’? The 25 bps seems practically baked into the cake, yet the tone is what truly matters. A bold declaration such as “employment outshines inflation” could electrify the crowd, or perhaps leave them yawning. Regardless, traders will pore over every word, ready to jump into action or retreat-such is the life of a modern speculator. ⚖️

Far be it from me to dampen spirits, but a rate cut is anticipated, and the world’s Crypto Twitter is aflutter with predictions of a grand pump. Yet, history whispers otherwise: in the last four FOMC meetings, Bitcoin suffered sagging prices-oh, how the mighty stumble! With a 99% chance of a cut already baked into the cake, perhaps patience shall be our guiding star. If the past serves as any guide, Bitcoin may revisit the $88K neighborhood-unless, of course, an unexpected turn of fate intervenes. 📉

According to my humble analysis, Bitcoin’s structure remains resilient-an ode to bullish perseverance. A support level of $91.5K would be most agreeable, yet even a dip to $91K would scarcely perturb the grander design. FOMC days often deceive the untrained eye-price swings just enough to entrap both the eager bulls and the cautious bears. Patience, dear reader, patience; the great journey continues! 🚀

Mark this splendid moment-December 9-10-as the date of decision! The policy statement shall be unveiled at 2:00 p.m. ET, with Mr. Powell’s eloquent speech to follow. For our friends in India, that’s 12:30 a.m. IST on December 11-an hour for deep contemplation and perhaps caffeination. Stay alert, dear friends; the market’s future hangs on this! ☕

All fingers point to a ‘hawkish’ rate cut-think 25 basis points, bringing rates to about 3.50%-3.75%. Yet, divergence within the Fed might produce dissent-a sort of internal squabble among the financial clergy. The dot plot may reveal resistance to further easing, much like a stubborn mule. Powell will likely adhere to a ‘data-dependent’ script, avoiding clear promises of future cuts. Oh, the suspense! 🦅

Bitcoin’s price stands confident around $91,000, showing strength in numbers-like a hero awaiting the next great challenge. The market’s structure hints at a bullish breakout, but beware the choppy waters of FOMC days-they tend to mislead even the most seasoned sailors. A dip to $91K? Mere illusion-true direction shall soon be revealed! 🚢