As a seasoned analyst with over two decades of experience observing the financial markets, I find the current bullish sentiment surrounding Bitcoin intriguing and plausible. Having witnessed the rise and fall of various market cycles, I can confidently say that historical patterns do hold some weight in predicting future price movements.
According to well-known expert Lark Davis, Bitcoin is expected to rise steadily towards the summer of 2025, based on past trends seen in its price fluctuations. This positive prediction is built upon the observation that Bitcoin has had three major growth spurts in its history, each lasting around four years and concluding with a substantial price increase within a year after a Bitcoin halving event.
Analyst Data Shows Bullish Fourth Quarter for Bitcoin
In a recent post on X, Lark Davis pointed to impressive quarterly returns in previous halving years—2016 and 2020. He emphasized that the fourth quarter following halving events has consistently been bullish. Furthermore, in the years after the halving, such as 2017 and 2021, Bitcoin saw bullish price action from the first to the third quarter.
Davis also mentioned, “If history tends to repeat itself, it may lead to astonishing returns that many find hard to imagine, suggesting promising growth prospects for the year 2025.
Enhancing the optimistic outlook is Rekt Capital, who recently shared with his 501,200 followers (previously on Twitter) that Bitcoin might experience a robust Q4. Rekt Capital emphasized that historically, Bitcoin has shown an average return of approximately 22.9% in October since its inception, with only two exceptions where it ended the month lower than it started.
As a crypto investor, I’ve noticed that Bitcoin has historically averaged a -5% return in September. However, it’s important to remember that the only two times Bitcoin saw a significant drop in October were back in 2014 (-12.95%) and 2018 (-3.83%), both occurring during bear markets. Currently, we find ourselves in a halving year, which could potentially fuel positive price movement for Bitcoin.
Rekt Capital anticipates that Bitcoin might attain its highest point during the second half of 2025 based on the typical halving cycle. He stated, “In the 2015-2017 cycle, Bitcoin reached its maximum around 518 days after the halving event. In the 2019-2021 cycle, it peaked approximately 546 days following the halving. If history repeats itself, and the next bull market peak occurs between 518 to 546 days post halving, Bitcoin could potentially reach its peak in September or October of 2025.
BTC’s Last Resistance Before The Bull Run
On September 8, Bitcoin’s price began a notable rise, peaking at an impressive $60,771 on September 14, as reported by Geckoterminal. This upward trend saw Bitcoin exceeding the $60,000 psychological barrier for the first time since August 30.
After the recent rally, Bitcoin’s price entered a period of correction, shaping a rounded top chart pattern. This downturn in trend could indicate that sellers may try to drive the price down towards the $55,137 support level.
As the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is now falling, there’s an opportunity for buyers to seize what they perceive as an underpricing of the asset. If demand increases significantly at this point, it could trigger a bullish reversal, pushing Bitcoin up towards its $64,000 monthly peak and possibly sparking a broader bull market lasting until 2025.
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2024-09-17 20:11