As a seasoned researcher with over a decade of experience in the financial markets, I have witnessed numerous market cycles and trends. The recent Bitcoin price rally, followed by a slight correction, has once again piqued my interest. Based on the latest data from Santiment and CryptoQuant, it appears that there are some bearish signals emerging.
Bitcoin‘s price has surged over 20% in the past two weeks, reaching above $65,000 after dipping to $53,500. Currently, it appears to be pausing for breath. In the previous day, Bitcoin experienced a 1% decrease and is now approaching $64,000. According to on-chain analytics, Binance traders have recently initiated new short positions for Bitcoin.
Bitcoin Short Positions Building Up
According to on-chain data provider Santiment, the number of positive comments about Bitcoin has dropped by approximately two-thirds compared to four months ago, despite a modest market recovery this week. Consequently, some traders on Binance have initiated fresh short positions, predicting another potential decline in Bitcoin’s price.
According to Santiment, these conditions might unexpectedly boost the probability of a significant increase in Bitcoin’s price. The analysis suggests that market sentiment, which can be counterintuitive at times, could be the driving force behind an imminent price rise for Bitcoin.
It’s intriguing that as Bitcoin’s price surged above $60,000, miners have been able to sell off approximately 2,000 Bitcoins.
#Bitcoin miners have sold 1,970 $BTC in the past few days as #BTC rose above $60,000!
— Ali (@ali_charts) July 18, 2024
In contrast, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju has pointed out a notable drop in Bitcoin’s retail investor activity, which has hit a three-year minimum. This indicator is calculated based on the 30-day variation in the sum of transactions below $10,000. Nevertheless, as reported, institutional investors have remained busy throughout 2024, resulting in weekly inflows of 100K via Over-the-Counter (OTC) desks.
BTC Options Expiry and ETF Inflows
According to Deribit’s data, approximately $1.12 billion worth of Bitcoin options will expire today. The put-call ratio for these options stands at 1.17, suggesting that there is a higher demand for put options than call options. This implies a bearish outlook among investors, as they seem to be betting on a potential market decline. The maximum pain point for these options is set at $62,000.
Alternatively, the flow of funds into spot Bitcoin ETFs, particularly BlackRock’s IBIT, has persisted. On Thursday, July 18, US Bitcoin ETFs accumulated $84 million in total investments, with IBIT accounting for more than $100 million. Over the past ten trading sessions, IBIT has attracted approximately $1.1 billion. Since its launch six months ago, IBIT now holds over 325,000 BTC.
In ~6 months, investors purchased 325,000+ Bitcoin via BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF, $IBIT
— HODL15Capital (@HODL15Capital) July 19, 2024
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2024-07-19 08:04