Bitcoin: 4.5% to Moon?

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Okay, so Bitcoin. It’s…sitting there. Like a teenager waiting for a text back. Apparently, it’s at a “decision point,” which is a fancy way of saying “it could go up or down.” Since January 5th, it’s been sort of politely declining, but not in a dramatic, falling-down-the-stairs sort of way. It’s down 4.5% for the year. 4.5%! 🙄 That’s less than the percentage of dust bunnies under my couch, and those are a serious investment.

But apparently, this tiny little dip is a HUGE deal. Some crypto wizard, Alphractal (sounds like a Transformer), noticed something about the year 2020. Back then, Bitcoin did a little wobble, went briefly negative, and then, BOOM, bull market. Now, it’s poised to do the same thing. Or not. I’m honestly placing my bets on the “or not,” but who am I to judge excitement?

A 4.5% Bitcoin Price Move Could Echo a Rare 2020 Pattern

This Alphractal, bless his heart, posted a thing. A tweet, I think. It said something fascinating about negative percentages and bull markets. Very deep. It involved a lot of jargon I pretended to understand while simultaneously thinking about what I was having for lunch. 🥪 The key takeaway? If Bitcoin goes up 4.5%, the magic happens. Or something.

Something rare is happening with Bitcoin!

The 1-year percentage change, when negative, has historically been associated with bear markets, with the exception of July 2020, when it briefly turned negative and was soon followed by a strong bull market.

Now, the current setup…

– Alphractal (@Alphractal) January 10, 2026

They’ve even got a chart. It looks like a…cup? With a handle? I make furniture, not financial predictions. But apparently, this “cup and handle” thing is good. It means it’s pausing to gather strength before attempting to, and I quote, “breakout.” It’s like pre-workout for crypto.

Want more token insights like this? Sign up for Editor Harsh Notariya’s Daily Crypto Newsletter here. Honestly, I’d rather get a postcard. If it had stamps.

And, get this, there’s an “EMA,” which sounds like something you’d use for carpal tunnel, but is actually a moving average. It’s reclaimed and holding. Apparently, that’s good too. Like getting your life together after the holidays. Then there was a little dip in December… and oh dear… leading to a 6.6% drop. The suspense!

Also, people aren’t sending their Bitcoin to exchanges anymore. Which is either a sign of confidence, or they’re all hiding it under their mattresses. Seriously, though, a 95% drop in selling pressure. That’s…a lot. It’s like everyone suddenly decided to stop returning things to stores.

Derivatives Pressure and Key Bitcoin Price Levels Decide The Next Leg

Now we’re talking about “leverage.” The world’s most optimistic financial concept. Apparently, lots of people are betting against Bitcoin. Which seems…bold. They have $4.10 billion riding on it failing. $2.17 billion is betting for it. That’s a difference, isn’t it? It’s like bringing a water pistol to a tank battle. ⚔️

If Bitcoin goes up, those people betting against it will have to buy it back, which will, naturally, make it go up even more. It’s a beautiful, chaotic system. Levels to watch are $94,880, $99,810 and $106,340. If it goes down, things get scary below $89,230. I swear, the numbers are just getting bigger.

So, there you have it. Bitcoin is teetering. Selling pressure is low. And 4.5% could be the key. Honestly, I’m starting to think it’s all a very elaborate distraction from the fact that I need to clean my gutters. Just saying.

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2026-01-11 15:42