As a seasoned researcher with over two decades of experience in the financial markets, I have seen my fair share of bull and bear runs. The latest surge in Bitcoin‘s price to near $100,000 has certainly caught my attention, but it also raises some concerns based on my past observations and market analysis.
Having closely followed the cryptocurrency since its early days, I have noticed that Bitcoin’s momentum can be unpredictable and prone to sudden corrections. The shooting star candlestick pattern that appeared in recent months is a stark reminder of previous corrections in 2018 and 2021. While it is too soon to definitively predict a major trend reversal, the potential for such an event cannot be ignored.
Moreover, the underwhelming trading volume and recent outflows from the BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF are noteworthy. These indicators suggest that while some investors may be betting on Bitcoin reaching new highs, there is a lack of conviction in the market that could potentially weaken its upward momentum.
The Federal Reserve’s recent hawkish stance also adds uncertainty to the equation. As someone who has witnessed the impact of central bank policies on financial markets throughout my career, I am well aware that unexpected monetary policy decisions can have a significant impact on asset prices, including Bitcoin.
In light of these factors, while I remain intrigued by the potential for further gains in Bitcoin’s price, I would advise caution and careful analysis before making any investment decisions. As the saying goes, “Don’t catch a falling knife,” but also be prepared to seize opportunities when they present themselves.
As for the joke, here it is: Why did Bitcoin cross the road? To get to the other side of the bear market! (Only joking, of course – Bitcoin doesn’t actually have feelings or the ability to cross roads!)
As an analyst, I’m observing a notable trend: The price of Bitcoin is steadily approaching the highly sought-after threshold of $100,000. Today, it peaked at an intraday high of $98,471.
Yet, despite this bullish price action, there are some worrying signs for the bulls.
As reported by Glassnode co-founders Jan Happel and Yann Alleman, the trading volume associated with this cryptocurrency seems insufficient, suggesting a potential slowdown in its momentum.
Analysts pointed out that despite Bitcoin reaching $97K, trading volume remains modest, which is essential for a sustained bullish trend in the near future.
Higher volume would be an absolute must for sustaining strong upward momentum.
As a crypto investor, I find myself pondering over the recent analysis by 10x Research. They suggest that the upward trend of Bitcoin might be approaching its zenith following the emergence of what they call a “shooting star” candlestick on the monthly chart. This bearish reversal pattern came about after Bitcoin began the month on a high, only for the bears to regain control with robust selling pressure towards the end.
As a researcher studying cryptocurrencies, I’ve observed an interesting pattern: Bitcoin has tended to correct significantly following the appearance of similar shooting star candles, as seen in 2018 and 2021. Despite the bulls making efforts to drive Bitcoin back towards $100,000, there is a growing sentiment that a significant trend reversal might be underway.
According to U.Today’s report, the Federal Reserve signaled that they would reduce the number of interest rate reductions this year compared to initial projections. This more conservative stance has created a challenge for Bitcoin enthusiasts who had anticipated a major surge in value following Bitcoin’s first crossing above $100,000 last month.
On Thursday, I observed substantial outflows amounting to approximately $333 million from BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) ETF. Although these outflows may not necessarily signal a broader market trend, this initial drain is concerning for a product that was instrumental in shaping the bull run predicted for 2024.
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2025-01-03 22:14