Bitcoin Could Hit $195,000-But Only If You Believe In Fairytales

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Ah, Bitcoin. A mystical beast of volatile proportions, and much like any mythical creature, it’s difficult to predict where it will go next. According to the ever-optimistic Julio Moreno, Head of Research at CryptoQuant, the so-called “bull trend” is still alive and kicking. Despite a raucous futures deleveraging earlier this month-which, incidentally, didn’t break the entire market (you can’t break a trend that’s as stubborn as your grandma’s Wi-Fi)-the path to glory (and potentially $195,000) remains wide open. That is, if Bitcoin decides to behave and spot demand stabilizes. Oh, and if the US-China tariff drama doesn’t throw a tantrum first.

Bitcoin’s Wild Ride: The Bull That Refused to Die

Now, on October 10, there was a bit of a… how do we put it? A ‘liquidation frenzy,’ where around $20 billion of open interest evaporated faster than your motivation on a Monday morning. The market’s total open interest-once frolicking around $78 billion-tumbled to $58 billion, like an over-inflated balloon that finally popped. It was almost like the FTX crash, but without the same amount of screaming. Still, according to Moreno, the dollar magnitude tells us one thing: it was a symptom of today’s massive derivatives base, not a sign of an apocalypse.

But despite all the chaos, Bitcoin barely flinched. On that fateful day, Bitcoin “only” hit $110,000. A mere flesh wound. It dipped to $103,000 a couple of days before, but nothing catastrophic. According to Moreno, this wasn’t a sign of a bearish market-oh no. It was simply a case of demand absorbing the supply like a sponge soaking up coffee at your local cafe.

CryptoQuant’s “bull score,” however, took a nosedive from an optimistic 80 to a nervous 40 by October 6. But don’t worry! Moreno assures us that on-chain metrics are not exactly fortune-tellers; they’re more like weather forecasts that tell you when to bring an umbrella. Spoiler alert: the risk is still high.

Speaking of risk, here’s where things get interesting: market composition! The key takeaway? It’s a rotation, not a market-wide breakdown. The OG whales-those lovable, ancient Bitcoin holders who probably own enough BTC to make you question your life choices-are still selling. They’ve done this every cycle. Meanwhile, the institutional demand, bless their hearts, remains steadfast. They’re not running for the hills, not yet anyway.

The real drama unfolded with “dolphins,” a.k.a. institutional custodial wallets that hold between 100 and 1,000 BTC. These little guys? They’re still buying. In fact, according to Moreno, even the whales increased their accumulation during the market correction. They’re not panicking. They’re simply biding their time like a cat waiting for its dinner.

Meanwhile, altcoins? Oh, they were a hot mess during the liquidation, with transactions flying to exchanges like a toddler on a sugar high. But don’t get too excited about “alt season.” Not every protocol doing well means its token will follow suit. And that, my friend, is the heart-wrenching reality of the crypto world.

Looking Ahead: 2024, 2025, and Beyond (Spoiler: No One Knows)

And now, a word on the future-brace yourself. The macroeconomic landscape is about as stable as a house of cards in a windstorm. But here’s the good news: Moreno thinks the market’s already priced in a rate cut from the Fed. The real question mark? The US-China tariff saga. If that clears up, we might just see a positive Q4. It could happen. But don’t bet the house on it.

Moreno places Bitcoin in a very peculiar spot right now: boxed in by a resistance at $115,000 and a psychological floor at $100,000. The real magic happens if Bitcoin breaks that $115K barrier-up we go, toward $150,000 or even $195,000. If not? We’re stuck in the trenches, waiting for clarity to emerge like a light at the end of a very long, dark tunnel.

Oh, and as for the next cycle peak? Don’t expect fireworks into 2026. That would be… ambitious. As Moreno puts it, the timing of tops is pure guesswork. So, let’s all just sit back, relax, and enjoy the ride. Or not. Who knows? We’re probably all going to be wrong.

At press time, BTC was hanging out at $108,187. Let’s see where it’s headed next-probably somewhere chaotic and unexpected, as usual.

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2025-10-21 13:07