As a researcher with extensive experience in the crypto market, I find it intriguing to observe the recent trend of Bitcoin ETF outflows in the U.S., which comes on the heels of a major correction on Wall Street. The sudden surge in net outflows, totaling over $160 million in one day and reaching a weekly high of $162 million, is noteworthy, especially since this follows five consecutive days of outflows from Bitcoin investment funds.
Prior to the anticipated Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) gathering, Bitcoin ETF redemptions spiked to over $161 million, marking the largest outflow this week. This surge in withdrawals came after a significant market correction on Wall Street. Over the past five trading days, there have been consecutive net sell-offs from Bitcoin investment funds.
U.S. Bitcoin ETF Excitement Drops
On April 30th last week, Bitcoin spot ETFs witnessed substantial withdrawals amounting to approximately $162 million collectively. Notably, Grayscale ETF (GBTC) recorded a significant one-day withdrawal of around $93.23 million. According to Farside Investors’ data, GBTC’s total historical net outflow now reaches an impressive figure of about $17.303 billion.
As an analyst, I’ve observed that the combined net asset value of Bitcoin spot ETFs in the United States now stands at approximately $49.413 billion, falling slightly below the $50 billion threshold. The month of April saw relatively weak performance for these ETFs, with uncertainty surrounding the macroeconomic and geopolitical landscapes contributing to this trend. Following robust inflows during the initial three months of operation, these nine Bitcoin ETFs experienced a collective outflow amounting to $182 million in April.
On Tuesday, April 30, Hong Kong introduced its Bitcoin and Ether ETFs. These exchange-traded funds began trading but experienced modest volume of $12 million on their first day. Some financial analysts, however, view this as a promising start and advise against making direct comparisons with the launch of U.S. Bitcoin ETFs, which have a significantly larger market presence including companies like BlackRock.
As a researcher studying the performance of Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs), I can share that the debut day of the Hong Kong Bitcoin ETF surpassed expectations, with trading volume reaching approximately $127 million. Initially, ChinaAMC had predicted a first-day volume of over $125 million. In contrast, the US Bitcoin ETF saw a robust first day with trading volume amounting to around $750 million (excluding the impact of Grayscale Bitcoin Trust selling). However, it’s important to note that the market size for Bitcoin ETFs in Hong Kong is significantly smaller than in the United States. The total market size for US Bitcoin ETFs is a substantial $6,500 billion, while the market size for Bitcoin ETFs in Hong Kong is just $50 billion – a difference of over 130 times.
— Adam Back (@adam3us) April 30, 2024
Adam Back pointed out that, considering market size, Hong Kong’s initial day showed 22 times greater strength than the highly anticipated Bitcoin ETF launch in the US. Despite lower trading volumes as compared to the first-day Assets Under Management (AUM), this disparity could be explained by Hong Kong’s extensive seeding process.
Instead of the US ETFs where buyers usually purchase on the first day due to marketing reasons, ChinaAMC indicated a possible preference for Hong Kong ETFs from Singapore and other Asian markets.
BTC Price Under Pressure
Amidst the significant stock market decline with the Dow Jones dropping by 500 points, Bitcoin (BTC) has experienced intense selling pressure as well, causing its price to fall below the $60,000 mark. Market analysts forecast that Bitcoin could experience a further correction of around 8-10%, potentially reaching $55,000, before starting to rebound.
Monthly close approaching for #Bitcoin and FOMC day tomorrow.
As a researcher, I believe we’ll witness a downward trend below the $60,000 mark, possibly reaching a low point between $55,000 and $58,000 before reversing course and heading back up.
From there: Ethereum ETF hype in May to pick up momentum.
— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) April 30, 2024
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2024-05-01 08:14