As a seasoned researcher with a keen interest in digital assets and geopolitics, I find Kendrick’s insights intriguing. His analysis is rooted in a deep understanding of market dynamics, call options, and the interplay between political events and asset prices. The potential for Bitcoin to serve as a hedge against traditional finance mishaps resonates with my personal experience during the 2008 financial crisis when I witnessed the power of digital assets in an era of TradFi instability.
As suggested by Geoff Kendrick, the worldwide leader of digital assets research at Standard Chartered, if Bitcoin (BTC) falls below $60,000 as a result of heightened political conflicts in the Middle East, it might present an excellent chance for purchasing.
Bitcoin Below $60,000, A Buying Opportunity?
With the escalating hostility between Iran and Israel, there might be a decline in riskier assets such as Bitcoin. Instead, many investors could opt for more secure investments like gold during times of uncertainty. However, Kendrick proposes that this potential dip in digital currencies like Bitcoin could present an opportunity for buying at lower prices, or accumulation.
In a recently shared note, Kendrick remarked:
The uncertainty surrounding the Middle East could potentially drive the price of Bitcoin down to around $60,000 before the weekend, but the presence of call options at $80,000 and the connection between these prices and the likelihood of Trump’s prospects imply that this dip might be a good opportunity for buying.
Additionally, Kendrick pointed out a rise in the number of call options being held open on Deribit, with an additional 1,300 Bitcoin over the last two days for contracts expiring on December 27 at a $80,000 price point. This suggests that many traders are anticipating a strong end-of-year surge in Bitcoin’s value, implying a favorable forecast for the dominant cryptocurrency’s market.
In simpler terms, the analyst made it clear that Bitcoin has not yet demonstrated its ability to act as a safeguard during geopolitical conflicts, compared to gold which remains dominant in times of global turmoil. However, it’s worth noting that Bitcoin serves as a protective measure against issues within traditional financial systems, like bank failures or the removal of the U.S. dollar‘s dominance (de-dollarization).
A Donald Trump Win Seen As Bullish For Digital Assets
Kendrick highlighted how the Iranian offensive against Israel could influence the upcoming U.S. presidential election, potentially boosting Trump’s chances over Kamala Harris. According to data on Polymarket, Trump now has a 50% likelihood of winning, compared to Harris at 49%.
Kendrick pointed out an intriguing connection between Bitcoin and the U.S. elections: should geopolitical conflicts temporarily decrease Bitcoin’s value, it could boost Trump’s chances of being reelected. In turn, this might enhance Bitcoin’s future standing post-election.
Trump is generally perceived as a supporter of cryptocurrencies. Lately, he was observed purchasing burgers at a New York City tavern, settling the bill with Bitcoin.
On the other hand, Kamala Harris, the Democratic presidential nominee, faces some doubt from the cryptocurrency community. Critics argue that the Biden administration’s stance on cryptocurrencies, perceived as a crackdown, has pushed several crypto businesses to establish themselves in more crypto-friendly nations such as Singapore and the United Arab Emirates.
To put it simply, Harris’ recent comments about cryptocurrencies have stirred a sense of hope. For example, she has pledged to boost American leadership in technology fields by creating a friendlier legal landscape for new innovations, such as digital currencies.
In a similar vein, it’s worth noting that while some cryptocurrency traders may perceive a victory for Kamala Harris as bearish, QCP Capital suggests otherwise. Currently, Bitcoin is trading at $60,090, having dropped by 5.7% over the past day.
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2024-10-03 19:42