As a seasoned analyst with over two decades of experience in both traditional and digital markets, I have learned to read between the lines and navigate the complexities of macroeconomic trends. The recent surge in Bitcoin (BTC) price and its potential for reaching a new all-time high is indeed an intriguing proposition.
Regardless of broader economic challenges, Bitcoin (BTC) seems poised for a fresh record peak in Q4 2024, driven by favorable seasonal trends.
Bitcoin New ATH On The Horizon?
On October 28th, Bitcoin (BTC) climbed over $71,000, fueling hope for a fresh all-time high (ATH) surpassing the $73,737 mark achieved in March of this year. Despite BTC breaching the $70,000 barrier on several occasions since then, it has yet to establish a new record high.
Based on a recent analysis by the cryptocurrency exchange Bitfinex, there’s a possibility that Bitcoin could reach a new all-time high (ATH) in the period shortly following the US presidential election. Bitcoin is frequently associated as a “Trump trade,” meaning its performance appears to be closely tied to the likelihood of Donald Trump being re-elected.
As a researcher, I’ve observed an intriguing correlation between Bitcoin (BTC) and the shifting odds of President Trump’s re-election on Polymarket, a decentralized prediction market platform. Following a 6% dip last week, BTC has remarkably recovered all its losses, which aligns with the increasing chances of Trump’s re-election as predicted by this platform. This trend is certainly worth further exploration to uncover any potential links between political events and cryptocurrency markets.
Currently, as I type this, Donald Trump appears to have a strong lead with approximately a two-thirds chance (66.1%) of being victorious against Democratic nominee Kamala Harris, who holds about a one-third chance (33.9%). Yet, survey polls indicate that the race is tight, leaving the final election results unpredictable.
The prospect of a Trump win is causing some buzz in the options market, but according to recent analysis, any short-term market turbulence leading up to the election shouldn’t affect Bitcoin’s overall positive growth trajectory in the long run. In other words, while there might be some short-term volatility as we get closer to the election, the general trend for Bitcoin remains optimistic.
As the election approaches, options with crucial expiration dates are fetching higher prices due to increased demand. The market’s anticipated volatility could peak at a daily volatility of 100 on November 8th, the day after the election, suggesting that investors are preparing for potential market turbulence. However, even though the short-term volatility might be greater than normal, we remain optimistic about long-term price growth.
It’s important to note that Bitcoin dropped down to $52,756 in September. But, the leading digital currency surged by nearly 30% in October, which has sparked a bit of optimism about the “Uptober” theory.
Seasonality Is On Bitcoin’s Side
The study underscores the potential advantage BTC could gain from a positive trend typically seen in the fourth quarter, often yielding significant profits during halving cycles. On average, this period has delivered a strong quarterly return of approximately 31.34% for BTC.
The increase in Bitcoin (BTC) call options set to expire on December 27, particularly those at the $80,000 strike price, strengthens the positive forecast for BTC’s fourth quarter of 2024. This information is further supported by the report.
With increasing enthusiasm for available choices, the market is hinting at preparations for a post-election upward trend. This could drive Bitcoin closer to, and possibly surpassing, its previous record high of $73,666.
Previously this month, crypto analysis company K33 Research noted that recent favorable events surrounding the FTX crisis seem to strengthen Bitcoin’s optimistic storyline for the fourth quarter.
At this moment, Bitcoin is trading at approximately $71,110, marking a 3.1% increase over the past 24 hours. It’s also about 3.5% shy of its all-time high (ATH). Whether Bitcoin will persist in its upward trajectory for the remainder of the quarter or encounter another rejection remains uncertain.
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2024-10-30 12:12