The forecast for Bitcoin‘s price is generally pessimistic due to the recent increase in US private sector employment by 99,000 in August. This figure resembles early 2021 levels and represents a decrease compared to the revised job creation of 110,000 in July, signaling a continuous slowdown in US job growth
U.S ADP NONFARM EMPLOYMENT CHANGE (AUG) ACTUAL: 99K VS 122K PREVIOUS; EST 145K
— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) September 5, 2024
What’s Next for Bitcoin Price Prediction as US Employment Tanks?
The private sector employment in the United States has been decreasing, which could be a sign of what may happen before the release of the Nonfarm Payroll data on September 6th. This decline in employment has stirred up talk about a potential recession. However, following the Bank of Japan’s increase in interest rates, financial markets globally have undergone a significant correction, suggesting that these recession rumors might not be entirely accurate. The crypto market experienced a substantial drop in late July as Bitcoin’s price plummeted by 30%, and altcoins have seen an even sharper correction
Investors are anxiously awaiting the results of the September 6th NFP report, as it’s a key indicator of the overall financial health of the company
In simpler terms, Peter Berezin points out that the National Federation of Independent Business (NFP)’s job data might not give a complete picture. Although the total job openings on Indeed have remained steady, the number of new job openings is decreasing. This could suggest a potential slowdown in the creation of new jobs over time
According to Peter Berezin, this situation is “cause for concern.” Crypto market analysts are divided on what might happen next. Some believe that interest rate cuts could be positive for riskier assets like cryptocurrencies, while others foresee a weakened market and bearish economic conditions that may lead to a recession originating in the U.S. and potentially affecting other financial markets as well
Plummeting US Employment Numbers & Fed Rate Cut Odds Increase Recession Worries
Late July’s market events demonstrated its resilience was not strong, triggering a short-term crash. This incident illuminated the Sahm’s recession warning light. Additionally, the Joshi Rule also flashed a similar recession signal. Many anticipate that the September 18 Fed interest rate decision could be the decisive factor, and the Nonfarm Payrolls will shape the trend for this situation
According to CME’s FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut has spiked to 61%.
A striking resemblance is noticeable between the price trend of S&P500 in the year 2007 and 2024. Given the current market trends, it appears that markets are anticipating a bearish forecast, as the S&P500 has lost approximately 169 points over the past six days
Bitcoin Price Forecasts Bearish Outlook Could Extend
The daily graph illustrates a consistent pattern of decreasing peaks (lower highs) and troughs (lower lows) since Bitcoin reached its record high in March. Given that Bitcoin is evidently in a downward trend without any indications of recovery, it seems prudent to infer that the bulls may be struggling in this market battle
Here are two outlooks that investors explore:
- If the US NFP data comes in hotter-than-expected, then the Bitcoin price prediction hints at a rally.
A cooler-than-expected jobs data on top of the 3-year low noted in the US private sector jobs could crush the hopes of bulls.
Initially, Bitcoin’s price might surge towards $60,000. If the resistance at $63,000 transitions into a support base, it strengthens the idea that we are witnessing a sustained recovery rally. However, for us to be certain that the six-month period of sideways movement in Bitcoin’s price has ended, we need to see a weekly candlestick closing above $70,000
In a contrasting scenario, it’s unlikely that we’ll see a new all-time high (ATH) in Bitcoin anytime soon, according to veteran trader Peter Brandt. He points out that no previous instances of “post halving” in Bitcoin history have taken this long for a new ATH to be reached. Additionally, he emphasizes that the inflation-adjusted 2021 highs and the current ATH remain unbroken, supporting his bearish perspective
If Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) turns out to perform better than anticipated, investors might find that the price of Bitcoin could potentially revisit its weekly support zones, approximately ranging between $50,000 and $52,000
In summary, whether it’s the crypto or traditional market, there’s a lot of uncertainty and instability at this point. Investors are keeping a close eye on two significant upcoming events: the US Nonfarm Payrolls scheduled for September 6 and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision slated for September 18. These economic indicators will provide insights into Bitcoin’s price movement and the overall direction of the crypto market
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2024-09-05 19:15