Bitcoin Realized Profits Drop To 2021 Peak Levels – Bullish Rallies Historically Begin At Lower Values

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Bitcoin‘s mood has significantly shifted, transitioning from confident bullishness above the $100K threshold to increasing apprehension as it lingers around $95K. The long-awaited decisive surge beyond the $100K mark, following its regaining, has not materialized, leading investors to ponder over the robustness of the ongoing bullish trend.

According to expert analyst Axel Adler, he recently disclosed intriguing figures about X, indicating a significant change in the market’s actual profit trends. The daily average realized profit has gone down from $136 million to $93 million, hinting at a period of cooling off. However, it’s worth noting that despite this decrease, the current realized profits are still similar to the high points of the 2021 cycle, demonstrating the market’s persistent vigor and activity.

As a researcher, I’m observing an intriguing duality in the current Bitcoin landscape. On one hand, it continues to exhibit resilience, but on the other, its inability to maintain momentum above $100K has cast a shadow of uncertainty over the market. Now, the focus is squarely on the $95K mark – a crucial support level that could potentially steer Bitcoin back onto its bullish course or signal a more significant correction ahead. The upcoming days are pivotal as we all wait for clarity and direction in this decisive stage of the game.

Bitcoin Metrics Set A Market Picture

Bitcoin’s current state is a period of consolidation following its significant breakthrough of key psychological and technical barriers. After surpassing the $100K milestone on December 5, the price peaked at approximately $108K before stabilizing below the $100K ceiling. This phase of sideways movement has generated a mix of optimism among bulls hoping for further growth and caution among bears anticipating possible corrections.

Axel Adler, an analyst, revealed significant observations about X, noting a reduction in the daily average profit from $136 million to $93 million. However, he emphasized that these figures are still similar to the highs seen during the 2021 cycle, indicating strong market activity. Past data supports this view, as both September 2021 and 2024 experienced mini-bullish rallies starting when average daily profits were around $15 million – a tiny fraction of the current figures.

Adler’s examination takes into account moving averages over a 30-day period, which helps filter out short-term market swings but may underestimate the true earnings realized by investors. For example, on November 21, 2024, one month after the rally started at $98K, daily investor profits peaked at an impressive $443 million.

According to these figures, Bitcoin appears to be stabilizing, but there’s robust action beneath the surface that might lead to further price increases. If Bitcoin manages to maintain crucial support levels, it could potentially challenge or even exceed its previous peaks.

BTC Technical View: Key Levels To Hold

Currently, Bitcoin is being traded at approximately $95,400, having dropped below several significant points. These include the symbolic $100,000 milestone, the 4-hour 200 Moving Average ($98,290), and the Exponential Moving Average ($96,480). This consecutive series of falls suggests a temporary bearish trend in the price, causing some investors to worry about potential additional declines.

Nevertheless, even amid strong selling forces, certain analysts posit that this might be an attempt to create liquidity prior to another upward surge. Such price fluctuations are often observed during consolidation periods close to crucial thresholds, particularly following substantial rallies, as witnessed with Bitcoin’s rally in December.

The significant level of $95,000 currently functions as a crucial area of support for the bulls. If Bitcoin can sustain this price point in the upcoming hours, it may indicate the conclusion of this bearish trend and initiate a swift rebound. Breaking back above the $96,480 Exponential Moving Average would be an optimistic initial step, while surpassing the $98,290 4-hour 200 Moving Average would suggest a resumption of bullish energy.

Investors are keeping a close eye on the $95K level because if Bitcoin manages to stay there for an extended period, it could restore investor faith and send Bitcoin soaring again. Conversely, if Bitcoin can’t hold onto this level, we might see more significant corrections in the near future.

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2025-01-09 11:41