Over the last two weeks, the cryptocurrency market, particularly Bitcoin, has faced significant turbulence due to escalating geopolitical tensions. Following coordinated military actions involving the US and Israel in Iran starting February 28th, the market has reacted to increased uncertainty, volatile energy prices, and a general reluctance among larger investors to take risks. This has effectively put crypto markets in a precarious position.
With Donald Trump suggesting he’d like to see the current conflict resolved quickly, what does that mean for Bitcoin? The likely outcome can be determined by looking at recent Bitcoin transaction data, how the market is structured, and the increasing amount of money flowing into Bitcoin ETFs – all of which currently point to a positive trend.
Bitcoin Trading Under A Geopolitical Discount
Even before the recent conflict, Bitcoin was demonstrating resilience after a period of market decline. Existing tensions in the Middle East were already impacting global markets, and Bitcoin felt those effects as well.
In early March, Bitcoin reached a high of $74,000, but then its price dropped after Iran launched retaliatory strikes, causing concern among investors. Now, getting the price back to $74,000 is the key goal for the market, and these ongoing tensions are the main thing preventing it from happening.
A recent report from Glassnode indicates that Bitcoin is showing signs of recovery across many key indicators. While the price hasn’t made a strong move upwards yet, positive momentum is building and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is increasing from its recent lowest point. Other metrics, like the ratio of realized profit to loss, the amount of Bitcoin currently held at a profit, and the net unrealized profit and loss (NUPL), are all showing slight improvements.
Can The Bitcoin Price Surge Soon?
The war has most significantly impacted energy prices. As fighting increased, the price of Brent crude oil jumped to $119.50 a barrel, and markets were highly anxious even above $100. If the conflict were resolved, it would likely reduce pressure on global markets and help stabilize oil prices.
Bitcoin often rises in value when the overall economic environment improves and investors are more willing to take risks. Data from Glassnode suggests traders are preparing for a potential price increase, as evidenced by increased profits, higher trading activity, and continued investment into Bitcoin ETFs.
Trading activity increased significantly, with open interest rising by 5.1% to $29.4 billion and cumulative volume difference (CVD) in perpetual futures jumping 201.7% to $172.6 million. This suggests strong buying interest in these markets.
Trading in options suggests investors are becoming less cautious. The total value of open options contracts increased from $32.8 billion to $34.1 billion, and the difference between implied and realized volatility is shrinking. Additionally, a key measure of investor fear, the 25-delta skew, is starting to decrease.
Growing demand for Bitcoin ETFs could be a major factor in the next price increase. According to Glassnode, weekly investments into US Bitcoin ETFs rose from $776 million to $934 million, and trading activity jumped from $16.0 billion to $23.1 billion, indicating increasing interest.
According to SoSoValue, Spot Bitcoin ETFs have experienced three straight days of positive investment activity as of today.
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2026-03-13 04:13