Bitcoin Stuck at $67K: On-Chain Data Reveals What’s Next for BTC Price

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<a href="https://tech-oracle.com/btc-usd/">Bitcoin</a> Is Stuck Around $67,000: On-Chain <a href="https://mywitcher.ru/data">Data</a> Explains Why, and What Comes Next

Key Takeaways

  • Bitcoinis trading below the 50 SMA at $67,266 with RSI at 47.
  • Supply in Profit has entered the Bottom Discovery band for the first time since the post-FTX collapse in 2022.
  • The transition from Overheated Zone to Bottom Discovery happened in a single vertical flush.
  • Selling is coming exclusively from 0–12 month cohorts – long-term holders remain largely inactive.

The Price and the Rejection

Bitcoin’s price increased from $65,000 on March 30th to $69,200 on April 1st, largely due to hopeful news about a potential ceasefire in the Middle East. However, the rally stalled around April 2nd after former President Trump vowed a strong response to Iran, and the price hit resistance at $67,266.

As of today, the price has dropped to $66,773. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 47.08, slightly indicating a weakening trend, and trading volume is decreasing. The Simple Moving Average (SMA) is starting to turn downwards, preventing a recent attempt at price recovery.

The significance of the price drop isn’t about how low it went, but what the blockchain data revealed about underlying issues, and why the price increase couldn’t last even with positive overall market conditions.

The Signal That Has Only Appeared Three Times in Bitcoin’s History

Data from CryptoQuant shows that the amount of Bitcoin currently held at a profit has fallen to 11.3 million BTC, reaching a level not seen since 2022. This level, known as the ‘Bottom Discovery’ band, has historically appeared during major lows in Bitcoin’s price – during the 2018/2019 crypto downturn, the sharp price drop of March 2020 (‘Black Thursday’), and after the collapse of FTX in 2022. These instances all signaled significant turning points in the market.

What’s notable about the current market situation is how quickly it changed. Instead of a slow decline over weeks, the market dropped from being overheated straight to a point where it’s trying to find a bottom – it happened in a single, rapid movement. The previous period of intense buying, or “Mania,” has been completely replaced by a phase CryptoQuant calls “Seller Exhaustion.” Now, most of the people still holding crypto are either long-term investors who bought at much lower prices, or those who are currently losing money but aren’t willing to sell.

This doesn’t promise a quick rebound, but historically suggests that the period of falling prices may be nearing its end, and the potential for gains is growing. Data shows a significant sell-off has already occurred, and we can identify exactly which investors participated.

Who Is Actually Selling

Since February 6, 2026, when Bitcoin’s price started moving sideways, we’ve been able to clearly see where most of the selling is coming from. It’s primarily people who’ve held Bitcoin for less than a year – newer investors who bought when prices were high. These investors are the most affected by price drops and are quickly selling their Bitcoin in response.

It’s just as important to note what *isn’t* happening. Holders who’ve had their assets for over a year are mostly staying put. We see brief increases in inflows from these long-term holders, but nothing consistent. This isn’t them selling off their holdings; it’s just occasional activity tied to specific events. Instead, those with smaller holdings are the ones currently selling. Long-term, committed holders aren’t contributing to the selling pressure.

The recent price movement is easily explained by a change in how Bitcoin reacts to selling. Even though some investors are still selling quickly, Bitcoin isn’t falling in price as much as it used to. The market is handling the increased supply without continuing to drop in value. This shift is also confirmed by the Coinbase Premium Index, which shows that demand in the U.S. is recovering. While a discount still exists, the price is no longer reacting as strongly to it.

The Warning the Bulls Cannot Ignore

Overall, the information presented is positive and helpful. However, one piece of data suggests a different trend, and it’s an important one to consider.

The overall amount of stablecoins available on direct trading platforms has been decreasing since the beginning of 2026, suggesting that less new money is entering the crypto market. Interestingly, the amount of stablecoins held on platforms for more complex trading, like futures and options, is actually increasing, even though trading activity hasn’t changed.

From my research, it appears traders in the derivatives market are currently focused on two main strategies. Some are making bets that the price will continue to fall, while others are adding funds to their accounts to avoid having their positions automatically closed due to losses. Interestingly, this positioning creates a potential for a sudden and significant price drop, especially as we’re also seeing a decrease in buying pressure in the main market.

As a crypto investor, I’m watching closely to see if the recent positive shifts in on-chain data – like more coins held at a profit and how long-term holders are behaving – actually lead to a price increase. Right now, we need to see fresh money flowing into the market and, ideally, an increase in stablecoins to confirm a real turnaround. Until that happens, the futures market is a big risk. It could easily wipe out any signs of buying pressure, especially with the overall economic situation still uncertain and everyone feeling pretty fearful.

What the Data Actually Concludes

It looks like sellers are almost finished, but buyers haven’t started purchasing yet. This imbalance is keeping the price from rising above $67,000.

If the market recovers, it will happen in a specific way. Those who’ve held the asset for a short time can only sell what they currently have, and as they sell, there are fewer and fewer of them left. Long-term holders aren’t adding to the available supply. As short-term sellers disappear, it takes less and less buying to keep the price stable, and eventually push it up. Data suggests U.S. institutional investors are starting to buy again, even if it’s not widely reported. A single positive event – like a ceasefire, a change in Federal Reserve policy, or a consistent increase in stablecoin supply – would likely have a much bigger impact now than it would have recently, as there’s less selling pressure. Furthermore, the fact that most holders are currently in profit suggests that significant further price drops from this point are less likely than they were after the FTX collapse.

If the current downturn worsens, the reasons are clear. A shrinking supply of stablecoins indicates fewer potential buyers are available, and these sidelined buyers are usually crucial for price recovery. When reserves for derivatives increase without a corresponding rise in trading activity, it suggests the market isn’t attracting new investors – it’s just existing traders taking on more risk. In this situation, any major external event – like increased tensions in Iran, weak job numbers, or problems within the derivatives market – could trigger a rapid sell-off. The complex web of derivatives would worsen the decline through forced selling, before regular buyers have a chance to react. The recent failure to break above the 50-day moving average suggests current buyers aren’t confident enough to overcome resistance without a new positive development. With the Fear and Greed Index at 8, investor sentiment could still fall further before reaching a level that typically leads to a price rebound.

Genuine selling is happening, but it’s mostly from those who react quickly to price changes. Long-term holders aren’t selling, and the available supply is decreasing. This isn’t a typical market bottom with clear selling pressure. When a significant price drop finally begins, it will likely fall faster than the $66,773 level suggests, because there’s less immediate supply available to absorb the selling. However, that initial drop still needs to happen first.

This article is for informational purposes only and shouldn’t be taken as financial, investment, or trading advice. Coindoo.com doesn’t support or suggest any particular investment or cryptocurrency. Before making any investment choices, be sure to do your own research and talk to a qualified financial advisor.

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2026-04-03 14:09