So, picture this: Bitcoin’s value compared to gold might just be about to nosedive by a juicy 35%. Yeah, because apparently the financial gods love reruns, and this one’s got all the classic bear-market drama sprinkled with a dash of a $13 trillion freak-out in the US stock market. Nothing like a tiny market hiccup to spice up your crypto weekend. 💸🐻
Bitcoin’s Dramatic Dip Beneath Gold’s Fancy Support Line
On April 22 (mark those calendars), the BTC/XAU ratio dropped below its 50-period exponential moving average (aka 50-EMA, that lovely red wave on your charts) on the two-week graph. And guess what? This is the first time since April 2022 that it’s done such a fancy disappearing act.
Legend has it, if you close below that 50-EMA party line decisively, you’re basically RSVP’ing to a long, gloomy walk down to the 200-period EMA (the blue wave that’s like the financial version of ‘Are we there yet?’).
Remember 2021 and 2022? Bitcoin’s dance moves were strikingly similar — a cheeky bounce on the 50-EMA, then a sullen slide downhill toward the 200-EMA. Now it’s doing the same thing in 2025 after testing the 50-EMA twice in 2024 and 2025, as if it’s stuck in some awkward crypto Groundhog Day. 🕺📉
Mike McGlone, Bloomberg’s senior commodity strategist (basically the guy who reads tea leaves but for markets), is waving a similar caution flag, linking Bitcoin’s fate to the US stock market’s rollercoaster love affair—spoiler: it recently lost $13 trillion. Yep, trillion with a “T.”
“What’s $13 trillion? Just the 2025 peak-to-trough drop in US stock market cap — nearly half the GDP. No biggie.”
Mike adds the classic bear market wisdom: “Bounces should be expected,” which, if you translate, means, “Don’t get too excited, there’s more lurking lows ahead.” Meanwhile, Bitcoin and stocks are still ostensibly in a ‘decoupling’ argument that sounds more like a messy breakup than a strategy.
When Bitcoin Snuggles Up to Gold, Bear Markets Get Jealous
Here’s the kicker: when BTC/XAU weakens, it’s not just a ‘who wore it worse’ between Bitcoin and gold—it’s a legit omen flashing bright red for Bitcoin’s price dropping in absolute terms.
We saw this drama unfold in 2021-2022 when Bitcoin dipped from a glamorous $42,000+ to a sobering sub-$17K. The BTC/XAU crossed below the 50-EMA and Bitcoin’s price followed like an obedient puppy, straight into the bear cave. 🐶📉
History’s insistence on repeating itself is relentless. Earlier cycles (2018-2019, 2019-2020) showed the same sad carousel: Bitcoin hitting rock bottom near the 200-week EMA, or sometimes sinking a bit lower to really prove a point.
If history keeps its streak alive (and it usually does, like that awkward ex who keeps texting), Bitcoin could be heading toward its 200-week EMA level, hovering around $50,950 by year-end. That’s a big drop to swallow, especially if you weren’t saving your crypto for a rainy day. ☂️
Bitcoin vs Gold is playing the ‘who’s got the weaker knees’ game again, and it’s not looking pretty. If you were hoping for a magical money-growing fairy godmother, the charts gently suggest you might want to adjust your expectations—and maybe your portfolio.
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2025-04-22 19:21